1980—2016年气候变化对湖南省农业产量的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.03.15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球气候变化背景下,农作物生产对气象条件的响应程度受到普遍关注。本文基于湖南省官方发布的1980—2016年气象和农业数据,运用多种统计方法,分析了湖南省气候、产量变化特征以及气候因素对高、中、低产区农作物产量的影响。结果表明：①1980—2016年,湖南省年均气温以0.39℃/10a的速率显著上升,年均降水量和年均日照时数有所减少,但趋势不显著。气温、降水、日照普遍存在突变现象。②4种主要粮食作物的单产均呈上升趋势,上升速率大小顺序为：玉米（0.122 t/hm²/a）>大豆（0.040 t/hm²/a）>小麦（0.039 t/hm²/a）>稻谷（0.028 t/hm²/a）。稻谷、小麦、玉米、大豆分别有0、9、19、11个气候丰年,1、5、2、4个气候歉年。③年均气温对中产区稻谷的气候产量有显著负效应。年均降水量对低产区稻谷、小麦的气候产量有显著负效应。年均日照时数对中产区玉米的气候产量,以及低产区稻谷、小麦、玉米的气候产量均有显著正效应。建议高产区进一步优化农业种植结构和种植制度,中低产区可引进和培育耐高温、耐涝的稻谷、小麦、玉米新品种,并适当调整播期。

关键词: 气候变化, 农业产量, 多元线性回归, 湖南省

Abstract:

Under the background of global climate change, the response of crop production to meteorological conditions and climate variability has attracted widespread attention. Based on the official meteorological and agricultural production data issued by Hunan Province from 1980 to 2016, we analyzed the change characteristics of local climate factors and crop yields, and the influences of climate factors on crop output in high, medium and low production areas with a variety of statistical methods. The results show that: (1) In 1980-2016, annual average temperature in Hunan Province increased significantly at the rate of 0.39/10 a. Annual average precipitation and sunshine hour decreased but not significantly. There were sudden changes in meteorological factors generally. (2) Per unit yields of four major crops all showed upward trend, with the increase rate ranging from high to low: maize（0.122 t/hm²/a)>soybeans（0.040 t/hm²/a)>wheat（0.039 t/hm²/a)>rice（0.028 t/hm²/a). Rice had 0 climate good year; wheat 9 climate good years; maize 19 climate good years; and soybeans 11 climate good years. Rice had 1 climate lean year; wheat 5 climate lean years; maize 2 climate lean years; and soybeans 4 climate lean years. (3) Annual average temperature had a significant negative influence on the climate yield of rice in medium production areas. Annual average precipitation had a significant negative influence on the climate yield of rice and wheat in low production areas. Annual average sunshine hour had a significant positive influence on the climate yield of maize in medium production areas, and rice, wheat and maize in low production areas. Our study suggested that the cropping structure and cropping system could be further optimized in high production area. Meanwhile, improved breeds of rice and wheat resistant to high temperature and waterlogging could be introduced and cultivated in low/medium production areas. Their planting period could also be adjusted appropriately.

Key words: climatic variability, crop yield, multiple linear regression, Hunan Province

冯琳, 庞玉亭, 钟琪, 张斌斌, 陈哲祺, 王铜. 1980—2016年气候变化对湖南省农业产量的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(3): 582-590.

Lin FENG, Yuting PANG, Qi ZHONG, Binbin ZHANG, Zheqi CHEN, Tong WANG. Impacts of climate variability on crop yields in Hunan Province during 1980-2016[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(3): 582-590.

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	稻谷	小麦	玉米	大豆
单产最小值/（t/hm²）	4.903（1980年）	1.108（1980年）	1.454（1980年）	1.034（1980年）
单产最大值/（t/hm²）	6.573（2001年）	3.469（2014年）	5.939（2014年）	2.596（2014年）
单产年均增加值/（t/hm²）	0.028	0.039	0.122	0.040
趋势产量年均值/（t/hm²）	6.090	2.017	3.089	1.616
气候产量最大值/（t/hm²）	0.529（1983年）	0.691（2013年）	0.995（2014年）	0.254（1985年）
气候产量最小值/（t/hm²）	-0.698（1980年）	-0.564（1999年）	-0.404（1988年）	-0.312（1988年）
气候丰年/个	0	9	19	11
气候歉年/个	1	5	2	4

种类	变量	偏回归系数B	标准误差SE	t检验值	P值	膨胀因子VIF
稻谷	年均气温/℃	81.68	127.45	0.86	0.379	1.209
	年均降水量/100 mm	1.87	2..35	2.48	0.113	1.161
	年均日照时数/100 h	0.44	0.54	0. 60	0.550	1.142
小麦	年均气温/℃	15.65	30.67	0.71	0.402	1.232
	年均降水量/100 mm	11.13	18.45	0.55	0.144	1.123
	年均日照时数/100 h	1.52	35.88	0.11	0.652	1.344
玉米	年均气温/℃	-81.42	97.55	-0.69	0.243	1.252
	年均降水量/100 mm	1.21	23.47	0.78	0.459	1.168
	年均日照时数/100 h	15.51	30.23	0.51	0.429	1.317
大豆	年均气温/℃	13.74	25.42	0.63	0.169	1.263
	年均降水量/100 mm	-0.92	4.68	-0.15	0.298	1.165
	年均日照时数/100 h	5.04	6.49	0.42	0.168	1.284

种类	变量	偏回归系数B	标准误差SE	t检验值	P值	膨胀因子VIF
稻谷	年均气温/℃	-48.22**	17.35	-2.404	0.012	1.026
	年均降水量/100 mm	5.04	6.23	0.756	0.307	1.146
	年均日照时数/100 h	11.71	8.66	1.089	0.153	1.008
小麦	年均气温/℃	-31.03	29.75	-0.708	0.287	1.021
	年均降水量/100 mm	-4.02	10. 54	-0.301	0.604	1.156
	年均日照时数/100 h	2.21	17.65	-0.108	0.643	1.106
玉米	年均气温/℃	9.55	43.63	0.168	0.685	1.022
	年均降水量/100 mm	6.07	19.87	0.206	0.543	1.087
	年均日照时数/100 h	62.76**	29.77	2.074	0.012	1.176
大豆	年均气温/℃	17.98	11.47	1.107	0.208	1.021
	年均降水量/100 mm	2.05	4.33	0.205	0.525	1.145
	年均日照时数/100 h	4.49	7.04	0.476	0.289	1.125

种类	变量	偏回归系数B	标准误差SE	t检验值	P值	膨胀因子VIF
稻谷	年均气温/℃	-10.16	14.66	-0.420	0.368	1.012
	年均降水量/100 mm	-12.44*	5.08	-1.304	0.051	1.053
	年均日照时数/100 h	15.03*	7.43	1.6013	0.052	1.060
小麦	年均气温/℃	-20.02	41.22	-0.391	0.503	1.012
	年均降水量/100 mm	-30.10**	11.47	-1.074	0.032	1.055
	年均日照时数/100 h	55.23**	17.33	2.004	0.003	1.057
玉米	年均气温/℃	-98.66	40.12	-1.851	0.176	1.015
	年均降水量/100 mm	-12.56	18.03	-0.573	0.289	1.048
	年均日照时数/100 h	50.88**	20.13	2.014	0.003	1.057
大豆	年均气温/℃	-11.44	11.23	-0.925	0.278	1.015
	年均降水量/100 mm	-5.69	4.13	-0.921	0.207	1.053
	年均日照时数/100 h	2.08	4.66	0.359	0.406	1.059