资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 572-581.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.03.14

• 生物资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于资本资产定价模型的森林资源资产评估基准折现率测算

董敏1,2(), 陈平留1, 张国防1()   

  1. 1. 福建农林大学林学院,福州 350002
    2. 西南林业大学林业调查规划设计研究院,昆明 650224
  • 收稿日期:2018-09-03 修回日期:2018-11-02 出版日期:2019-03-20 发布日期:2019-03-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:董敏,男,湖南株洲人,博士研究生,副教授,研究方向为森林资源资产评估、林业经济管理。E-mail: dongmin@mail.kib.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(41661144002); 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD850015); 云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2015Y306)

Benchmark discount rate calculation for forest resource asset valuation via capital asset pricing model

Min DONG1,2(), Pingliu CHEN1, Guofang ZHANG1()   

  1. 1. College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China
    2. Academy of Forest Inventory and Planning, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
  • Received:2018-09-03 Revised:2018-11-02 Online:2019-03-20 Published:2019-03-20

摘要:

折现率是森林资源资产评估中对评估结果有重大影响的参数,也是最难以确定的参数。本文引入资本资产定价模型,在定量计算无风险收益率、市场风险溢价和营林行业市场风险系数的基础上,对森林资源资产评估中的基准折现率进行了测算。结果显示,以2016年12月31日为评估基准日,森林资源资产评估中的无风险收益率为1.84%;市场风险溢价为2.88%,市场风险系数为0.92,风险收益率为2.65%;基准折现率为4.50%。根据评估基准日基准折现率测算结果,结合已有研究成果,建议森林资源资产评估中基准折现率的取值为5.0%,其中无风险收益率为2.0%、风险收益率为3.0%,风险收益率中经营风险、财务风险和行业风险取值均为1.0%。但不同经营类型、目标和特点的森林资源资产评估,应以基准折现率为参考设定评估实务中采用的具体折现率。

关键词: 森林资产基准折现率, 资本资产定价模型, 无风险收益率, 市场风险溢价, 市场风险系数

Abstract:

Discount rate has a significant impact on the assessed value of forest resource asset and is a parameter whose value is most difficult to determine. Applying a capital asset pricing model, and based on quantitative calculation of risk-free rate of return, market risk premium, and market risk coefficient of forestry industry, this study empirically calculated the benchmark discount rate for forest resource asset valuation. The result shows that, taking 31 December 2016 as the base date of valuation, the final benchmark discount rate for forest resource asset valuation was 4.50%, among which, risk-free return rate was 1.84%, market risk premium was 2.88%, market risk coefficient was 0.92, and risk return rate was 2.65%. According to the calculation result of benchmark discount rate on the valuation date combined with existing research results, this article suggests that, without considering valuation date, the general value of the benchmark discount rate for forest resource asset valuation is 5.0%, among which, risk-free return rate is 2.0%, risk return rate is 3.0%, and the value of operating risk, financial risk, and industry risk in the risk return rate is 1.0% respectively. However, specific discount rates used in practical forest resource asset valuation with different types of businesses and operation objectives and characteristics could be different, and the setting of specific discount rates in practice should take the general discount rate as the reference.

Key words: benchmark discount rate of forest asset, capital asset pricing model, risk-free return rate, market risk premium, market risk coefficient