资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 546-556.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.03.12
收稿日期:
2018-08-26
修回日期:
2018-12-05
出版日期:
2019-03-20
发布日期:
2019-03-20
作者简介:
作者简介:周迪,男,湖北鄂州人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为区域可持续发展,区域资源环境。E-mail:
基金资助:
Di ZHOU1(), Fengnian ZHOU2(
), Xueqin WANG3
Received:
2018-08-26
Revised:
2018-12-05
Online:
2019-03-20
Published:
2019-03-20
摘要:
低碳试点是实现中国低碳经济发展的一项重要政策,客观评价其实施效果,不仅有利于低碳试点地区更好地推进低碳工作,而且对于低碳试点政策的进一步推广具有重要意义,但低碳试点政策能否实现碳排放绩效的提升尚未得出一致的结论。本文以第二批低碳试点政策为例,基于2012—2016年的地级市面板数据,采用倾向得分匹配—双重差分(PSM-DID)方法研究低碳试点政策对降低城市碳排放强度的影响,以有效降低样本自选择及政策内生性等问题导致的处理效应偏差。研究发现:低碳试点政策对城市的碳排放强度下降具有显著且持续的推动作用;进一步的机制识别结果显示,低碳试点城市主要是通过能源效率的提高以及产业结构升级等方式实现碳强度的下降,且产业升级的效果有逐年增强的趋势,但通过城市绿地碳汇水平的提高而降低碳排放的目标尚未实现。基于此结论,本文认为中国应进一步推广低碳试点政策,积极探索低碳城市的发展模式,特别是提升宜居绿色的城市环境。
周迪, 周丰年, 王雪芹. 低碳试点政策对城市碳排放绩效的影响评估及机制分析[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(3): 546-556.
Di ZHOU, Fengnian ZHOU, Xueqin WANG. Impact of low-carbon pilot policy on the performance of urban carbon emissions and its mechanism[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(3): 546-556.
表1
各变量的符号和定义"
变量 | 含义 | 全部样本(N=202) | 实验组样本(N=20) | 对照组样本(N=182) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
均值 | 标准差 | 均值 | 标准差 | 均值 | 标准差 | ||||
lnicar | 碳排放强度,碳排放量与实际GDP之比 | 6.256 | 0.778 | 6.325 | 0.758 | 6.248 | 0.781 | ||
lnrgdp | 人均GDP,实际GDP/年末总人口 | 10.311 | 0.674 | 10.578 | 0.683 | 10.282 | 0.667 | ||
lnene | 能源强度,全社会用电量/实际GDP | 1.522 | 0.804 | 1.585 | 0.786 | 1.515 | 0.806 | ||
lnsec | 第二产业比重,第二产业增加值/GDP | 3.880 | 0.221 | 3.856 | 0.150 | 3.883 | 0.227 | ||
lnthi | 第三产业比重,第三产业增加值/GDP | 3.617 | 0.228 | 3.722 | 0.202 | 3.605 | 0.228 | ||
lngre | 建成区绿化覆盖率/% | 3.642 | 0.365 | 3.715 | 0.168 | 3.634 | 0.379 | ||
lnwage | 职工平均工资 | 10.481 | 0.350 | 10.605 | 0.247 | 10.467 | 0.357 | ||
lnpop | 年末总人口 | 5.894 | 0.711 | 5.934 | 0.740 | 5.890 | 0.708 |
表2
倾向得分匹配前后各变量的平衡性检验"
变量 | 匹配前后 | 实验组均值 | 对照组均值 | t值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
lnrgdp | 匹配前 | 10.396 | 10.094 | 1.950* | 0.053 |
匹配后 | 10.396 | 10.341 | 0.340 | 0.755 | |
lnene | 匹配前 | 1.639 | 1.607 | 0.170 | 0.864 |
匹配后 | 1.639 | 1.586 | 0.220 | 0.826 | |
lnwage | 匹配前 | 10.384 | 10.223 | 2.660*** | 0.008 |
匹配后 | 10.387 | 10.367 | 0.260 | 0.794 | |
lnpop | 匹配前 | 5.926 | 5.882 | 0.260 | 0.794 |
匹配后 | 5.926 | 5.881 | 0.200 | 0.841 | |
lnsec | 匹配前 | 3.909 | 3.948 | -0.770 | 0.441 |
匹配后 | 3.909 | 3.920 | -0.200 | 0.844 | |
lnthi | 匹配前 | 3.646 | 3.497 | 2.540** | 0.015 |
匹配后 | 3.646 | 3.621 | 0.360 | 0.741 |
表3
DID估计结果"
平均处理效应 | 动态边际效应 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | ||
Treat×T | -0.690***(-6.019) | -0.693***(-6.483) | |||
t | -0.0457(-0.846) | -0.0845(-0.618) | |||
Treat×t2013 | -0.592***(-4.134) | -0.579***(-4.361) | |||
Treat×t2014 | -0.425***(-2.967) | -0.430***(-3.239) | |||
Treat×t2015 | -0.968***(-6.760) | -0.964***(-7.265) | |||
Treat×t2016 | -0.774***(-5.402) | -0.820***(-6.194) | |||
lnene | 0.756***(9.041) | 0.762***(9.249) | |||
lnrgdp | -0.071(-0.195) | -0.219(-1.188) | |||
lnsec | 0.963***(2.691) | 0.860***(2.838) | |||
cons | 6.421***(176.913) | 9.740***(2.612) | 6.421***(179.036) | 10.846***(3.984) | |
城市固定 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | |
时间固定 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | |
N | 680 | 680 | 680 | 680 | |
R2 | 0.085 | 0.210 | 0.111 | 0.237 | |
F | 9.950*** | 17.800*** | 8.370*** | 16.590*** |
表4
不同时间段下的DID估计结果"
2012—2013年 | 2012—2014年 | 2012—2015年 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |||
Treat×T | -0.592*** | -0.587*** | -0.508*** | -0.504*** | -0.662*** | -0.652*** | ||
(-7.444) | (-7.685) | (-5.546) | (-5.801) | (-5.998) | (-6.292) | |||
t | -0.015 | -0.053 | -0.007 | 0.028 | -0.075 | 0.001 | ||
(-0.503) | (-0.414) | (-0.180) | (0.208) | (-1.486) | (0.007) | |||
lnene | 0.605*** | 0.601*** | 0.704*** | |||||
(3.990) | (5.960) | (7.500) | ||||||
lnrgdp | 0.452 | -0.145 | -0.352 | |||||
(0.644) | (-0.202) | (-0.535) | ||||||
lnsec | 0.539 | 0.454 | 0.787* | |||||
(0.568) | (0.814) | (1.835) | ||||||
cons | 6.421*** | 2.938 | 6.421*** | 8.748 | 6.421*** | 12.017* | ||
(322.396) | (0.466) | (242.208) | (1.260) | (189.774) | (1.840) | |||
城市固定 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 地区 | 是 | ||
时期固定 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 时期 | 是 | ||
N | 272 | 272 | 408 | 408 | 544 | 544 | ||
R2 | 0.339 | 0.411 | 0.127 | 0.230 | 0.109 | 0.222 | ||
F | 34.310*** | 18.250*** | 13.040*** | 13.260*** | 12.290*** | 16.340*** |
表5
低碳试点政策提升碳排放绩效机制的检验结果"
lnsec | lnthi | lnene | lngre | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | ||||
Treat×T | -0.332*** | 0.561*** | -0.331*** | 0.056 | |||||||
(-9.318) | (9.207) | (-2.807) | (1.047) | ||||||||
t | -0.068*** | 0.091*** | 0.009 | 0.009 | |||||||
(-4.071) | (3.149) | (0.163) | (0.457) | ||||||||
Treat×t2013 | -0.046 | 0.115* | -0.489*** | 0.046 | |||||||
(-1.265) | (1.720) | (-3.300) | (0.671) | ||||||||
Treat×t2014 | -0.213*** | 0.440*** | -0.143 | 0.046 | |||||||
(-5.893) | (6.581) | (-0.967) | (0.680) | ||||||||
Treat×t2015 | -0.434*** | 0.721*** | -0.530*** | 0.128* | |||||||
(-12.047) | (10.790) | (-3.576) | (1.881) | ||||||||
Treat×t2016 | -0.636*** | 0.970*** | -0.164 | 0.005 | |||||||
(-17.622) | (14.517) | (-1.104) | (0.076) | ||||||||
cons | 3.922*** | 3.922*** | 3.600*** | 3.600*** | 1.635*** | 1.635*** | 3.691*** | 3.691*** | |||
(347.492) | (434.285) | (186.409) | (215.163) | (43.738) | (44.087) | (217.121) | (216.882) | ||||
城市固定 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | |||
时期固定 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | |||
N | 680 | 680 | 680 | 680 | 680 | 680 | 680 | 680 | |||
R2 | 0.232 | 0.511 | 0.207 | 0.408 | 0.023 | 0.043 | 0.004 | 0.013 | |||
F | 32.640*** | 70.090*** | 28.160*** | 46.210*** | 2.480** | 3.030*** | 0.980 | 0.850 |
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