资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 509-520.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.03.09

• 能源与碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国建筑部门中长期低碳发展路径

刘俊伶1,2(), 项启昕2, 王克2(), 邹骥2, 孔英1,3   

  1. 1. 清华—伯克利深圳学院 环境科学与新能源技术研究中心 低碳经济与金融风险分析研究实验室,深圳 518055;
    2. 中国人民大学环境学院,北京 100872
    3. 约克大学经济系,多伦多 M3J1P3,加拿大
  • 收稿日期:2018-09-27 修回日期:2018-11-25 出版日期:2019-03-20 发布日期:2019-03-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者介绍:刘俊伶,女,湖南衡阳人,博士,博士后,主要研究领域为能源与气候变化经济学。E-mail: liujunling8838@gmail.com

  • 基金资助:
    科技部改革发展专项(YJ201603)

Mid- to long-term low carbon development pathways of China’s building sector

Junling LIU1,2(), Qixin XIANG2, Ke WANG2(), Ji ZOU2, Ying KONG1,3   

  1. 1. Low Carbon Economy and Financial Risks Analysis Lab, Environmental Science and New Energy Technology Research Center, Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute, Shenzhen 518055, China
    2. School of Environment & Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;
    3. Department of Economics, York University, Toronto M3J1P3, Canada
  • Received:2018-09-27 Revised:2018-11-25 Online:2019-03-20 Published:2019-03-20

摘要:

本文讨论了城镇化背景下建筑部门未来发展驱动因子与能源服务需求的变化趋势,并设定基准(BAU)、自主贡献(NDC)和强化低碳(ELC)3个情景,运用自下而上的建筑部门能源系统模型(PECE-Building)分析2013—2050年不同发展路径下建筑部门能源需求和CO2排放趋势,评估建筑部门实现中长期低碳发展目标的技术路线图和投资需求。研究结果表明,受城镇化进程与收入增长驱动,中国中长期建筑部门能源服务需求将快速增长,建筑部门成为中国未来能耗与排放增长的重要来源。BAU情景下建筑部门2050年能耗与CO2排放水平较2013年分别上升142.8%、103.1%;NDC情景下全社会CO2排放达峰,但建筑部门排放依然保持持续增长;ELC情景下建筑部门有望在2027年左右以7.8亿t CO2排放达峰,2050年排放降至6.15亿t,低于2013年水平。ELC情景下能效技术与新能源技术累计减排量分别占比 33.4%和66.6%,北方城镇供暖是最重要的减排领域。实现该低碳发展目标所需新增投资共计2694.3亿元,占各期GDP比重均不超过0.26‰。因此,建筑部门有望走上一条技术可行、经济可接受的低碳转型之路。

关键词: 建筑部门, 中长期低碳发展, 技术路径, 低碳投资需求, 自下而上模型

Abstract:

This article discusses the trends of future driving factors and energy service demands of China’s building sector in the context of urbanization. Three scenarios——business as usual (BAU), nationally determined contribution (NDC), and enhanced low carbon (ELC)——were set in a bottom-up energy system model of building sector (Programme of Energy and Climate Economics (PECE-Building)). The model was used to analyze the energy demand and carbon emission trends of China’s building sector under different development pathways during 2013-2050, and to assess the technology roadmap and investment needs to achieve the sector’s medium- and long-term low carbon development goals. The results show that the energy service demand of China’s building sector will grow rapidly due to the urbanization process and income growth. The sector will become an important source of China’s future energy consumption and carbon emissions growth. Under the BAU scenario, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the building sector will increase by 142.8% and 103.1% in 2050 compared with 2013. Under the NDC scenario, the building sector’s CO2 emissions will grow despite of the emission of the whole society reaching the peak. Under the ELC scenario, carbon emission of China’s building sector is expected to peak in 2027 at around 780 million tons, and return to an annual emission of 615 million tons in 2050, which is below the 2013 emission level. Application of energy efficient technologies and new energies will contribute 33.4% and 66.6% of the cumulative emission reduction respectively. Heating in the northern urban areas is the most important mitigation subsector. Compared to BAU, the additional investment under the ELC scenario required to achieve this low carbon development pathway will be RMB 269.4 billion, not exceeding 0.26‰ of GDP in all time periods. Therefore, China’s building sector is able to embark on a technologically viable and economically acceptable low carbon transformation pathway.

Key words: building sector, mid- to long-term low carbon development, technology roadmap, low carbon investment demand, bottom-up model