湖南省耕地经营协调度时空演变

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.02.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

揭示区域耕地经营格局特征有助于从区域层面解读耕地经营模式特点,切实有效提出区域耕地利用转型的重点和发展方向。本研究基于“集约-规模-产能”三要素提出耕地经营协调度评价模型,并借助协调度函数和探索性空间数据分析方法揭示湖南省县域耕地经营格局演变特征。结果表明：①1990—2014年间,湖南省县域耕地经营协调水平整体较高,且空间格局差异明显：“长株潭”丘陵区集约指数较高,洞庭湖平原区规模指数较高,主要市辖区及其周边县域产能指数较高;②受不同地理区位和社会经济影响,湖南省县域耕地经营要素时空集聚特征存在明显差异:空间维度上,耕地经营协调度由“大集聚”向“小集聚”分布转变;时间维度上,规模指数自相关性较强且分布较集中,产能指数自相关性较弱且分布较分散;③从“投入-规模-产出”过程看,平原区呈现“高-高-高”特征,丘陵区表现“高-低-低”特征,山地区则为“低-低-低”特征。结合耕地经营格局时空演化特征成因,建议湖南各县域因地制宜地采用以粮食作物为主的集约经营模式,以经济作物为主的复合经营模式和特色作物经营模式。

关键词: 耕地经营格局, 协调度, 时空格局, 演变, 探索性空间数据分析方法, 湖南

Abstract:

Revealing the characteristics of regional cultivated land management pattern helps to interpret the characteristics of cultivated land management model from the regional level, which will effectively propose the key points and development direction of regional cultivated land use transformation. This study initiated an evaluation model of cultivated land management coordination degree based on the three elements of “intensive-scale-capacity,” and used the coordination degree function and exploratory spatial data analysis method to reveal the evolution characteristics of the cultivated land management pattern in the county of Hunan Province. The results show that: (1) The coordination level of cultivated land management in Hunan Province was high overall from 1990 to 2014. The spatial pattern was significantly different. For example, the “Changzhutan” hilly area did show a higher intensive index. The Dongting Lake plain area exhibited a higher scale index. The main municipal district and its surrounding county capacity index was relatively high. (2) Due to different geographical locations and socio-economic impacts, there were significant differences in the temporal and spatial agglomeration characteristics of cultivated land management elements in Hunan Province. In the spatial dimension, the coordination degree of cultivated land management changed from “large agglomeration” to “small agglomeration.” In time dimension, the scale index autocorrelation was strong, the distribution was concentrated, and the productivity index was weakly correlated and distributed. (3) From the “input-scale-output” process, the plain area exhibited “high-high-high” signs, the hilly areas exhibited “high-low-low” characteristics, and the mountain areas were characterized by “low-low-low.” Combined with the characteristics of the spatial and temporal evolution of cultivated land management pattern, it is suggested that Hunan counties should adopt an intensive management model based on food crops, with economic crops as the main business model and characteristic crop management model.

Key words: cultivated land management pattern, coordination degree, spatiotemporal characteristics, evolution, exploratory spatial data analysis method, Hunan Province

李全峰, 胡守庚, 瞿诗进. 湖南省耕地经营协调度时空演变[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(2): 233-246.

Quanfeng LI, Shougeng HU, Shijin QU. Evolution and coordination of spatial pattern of cultivated land management in Hunan Province[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(2): 233-246.

图/表 11

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

表2

图7

图8

表3

参考文献 44

[1]	李全峰, 胡守庚, 瞿诗进. 1990-2015年长江中游地区耕地利用转型时空特征[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(8): 1489-1502.
	[Li Q F, Hu S G, Qu S J.Spatiotemporal characteristics of cultivated land use transition in the Middle Yangtze River from 1990 to 2015[J]. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(8): 1489-1502. ]
[2]	Deng X, Huang J, Rozelle S, et al. Impact of urbanization on cultivated land changes in China[J]. Land Use Policy, 2015, 45: 1-7.
[3]	刘洪彬, 董秀茹, 钱凤魁, 等. 东北三省农村土地规模经营研究[J]. 中国土地科学, 2014, 28(10): 12-19.
	[Liu H B, Dong X R, Qian F K, et al. Study on the scale-up management of rural land: Taking typical area of three northeast provinces as example[J]. China Land Science, 2014, 28(10): 12-19. ]
[4]	王国刚, 刘彦随, 陈秧分. 中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(7): 907-915.
	[Wang G G, Liu Y S, Chen Y F.Dynamic trends and driving forces of land use intensification of cultivated land in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(7): 907-915. ]
[5]	相慧, 孔祥斌, 武兆坤, 等.中国粮食主产区耕地生产能力空间分布特征[J]. 农业工程学报, 2013, 28(24): 235-244.
	[Xiang H, Kong X B, Wu Z K, et al. Spatial distribution characteristics of potential productivity of arable land in main crop production area in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2012, 28(24): 235-244. ]
[6]	Ribeiro P F, Santos J L, Bugalho M N, et al. Modelling farming system dynamics in high nature value farmland under policy change[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2014, 183: 138-144.
[7]	李全峰, 杜国明, 胡守庚. 不同土地产权制度下耕地利用综合效益对比分析: 以黑龙江省富锦市垦区与农区为例[J]. 资源科学, 2015, 37(8): 1561-1570.
	[Li Q F, Du G M, Hu S G.Comparative differences of comprehensive benefits from cultivated land use under different land property right systems[J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(8): 1561-1570. ]
[8]	韩德军, 朱道林. 西南山区典型农村土地流转与经营模式转变实证研究[J]. 农村经济, 2014, (5): 43-48.
	[Han D J, Zhu D L.The transformation of typical rural land circulation and management model in southwest mountainous areas[J]. Rural Economy, 2014, (5): 43-48. ]
[9]	Candel J J L, Biesbroek R. Policy integration in the EU governance of global food security[J]. Food Security, 2018, 10(1): 195-209.
[10]	董全海. 我国市场经济的耕地经营制度选择与创新[J]. 农业经济问题, 1995, 16(4): 26-29.
	[Dong Q H.The choice and innovation of cultivated land management system in China’s market economy[J]. Agricultural Economic Problems, 1995, 16(4): 26-29. ]
[11]	袁宁, 刘小川. 不同耕地规模影响农户粮食经营行为的实证研究[J]. 调研世界, 2013, (1): 31-34.
	[Yuan N, Liu X C.An empirical study on the impact of different farmland scales on farmers’ grain management behaviors[J]. Research World, 2013, (1): 31-34.]
[12]	Baysse-Lainé A, Perrin C.How can alternative farmland management styles favour local food supply? A case study in the Larzac (France)[J]. Land Use Policy, 2018, 75: 746-756.
[13]	Catry I, Amano T, Franco A, et al. Influence of spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural practices on the lesser kestrel[J]. Journal of Applied Ecology, 2012, 49(1): 99-108.
[14]	卜范达, 韩喜平. “农户经营”内涵的探析[J]. 当代经济研究, 2003, (9): 37-41.
	[Bu F D, Han X P.The analysis on the connotation of farmer management[J]. Contemporary Economic Research, 2003, (9): 37-41. ]
[15]	曾福生. 中国现代农业经营模式及其创新的探讨[J]. 农业经济问题, 2011, (10): 4-10.
	[Zeng F S.Discussion on the modern agriculture management mode and its innovation in China[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2011, (10): 4-10. ]
[16]	Jiang G H, Zhang R J, Ma W Q, et al. Cultivated land productivity potential improvement in land consolidation schemes in Shenyang, China: Assessment and policy implications[J]. Land Use Policy, 2017, 68: 80-88.
[17]	Song X Q, Huang Y, Wu Z F, et al. Does cultivated land function transition occur in China?[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 25(7): 817-835.
[18]	聂艳, 乌云嘎, 于婧, 等. 基于能值分析的武穴市耕地利用效益时空特征分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(6): 987-993.
	[Nie Y, Wu Y G, Yu J, et al. Spatiotemporal variation characteristic of utilization efficiency of cultivated land in Wuxue- based on an energy analysis[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2015, 24(6): 987-993. ]
[19]	宋永永, 米文宝, 仲俊涛, 等. 宁夏耕地集约利用的时空格局演化[J]. 经济地理, 2015, 35(9): 172-181.
	[Song Y Y, Mi W B, Zhong J T, et al. Evolution of spatial and temporal pattern of intensive use of cultivated land in Ningxia[J]. Economic Geography, 2015, 35(9): 172-181. ]
[20]	李翠珍, 孔祥斌, 梁颖, 等. 京冀平原区不同类型农户耕地利用决策影响因素分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2011, 27(9): 316-322.
	[Li C Z, Kong X B, Liang Y, et al. Analysis of decision-making mechanism of arable land use based on household object in Jingji plains[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2011, 27(9): 316-322. ]
[21]	吕晓, 牛善栋, 李振波, 等. 中国耕地集约利用研究现状及趋势分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(18): 212-224.
	[Lv X, Niu S D, Li Z B, et al. Present situation and trends in research on cultivated land intensive use in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(18): 212-224. ]
[22]	于亢亢, 朱信凯, 王浩. 现代农业经营主体的变化趋势与动因: 基于全国范围县级问卷调查的分析[J]. 中国农村经济, 2012, (10): 78-90.
	[Yu K K, Zhu X K, Wang H.The trends and motivations of modern agricultural management subjects: Based on the analysis of national level county-level questionnaires[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2012, (10): 78-90. ]
[23]	Wang J, Chen Y, Shao X, et al. Land-use changes and policy dimension driving forces in China: Present, trend and future[J]. Land Use Policy, 2012, 29(4): 737-749.
[24]	杨旺明, 栾一博, 杨陈, 等. 中国饮食所需耕地面积长时间尺度变化研究[J]. 资源科学, 2013, 35(5): 901-909.
	[Yang W M, Luan Y B, Yang C, et al. Changes in the land requirements for food from 1961 to 2007 in China[J]. Resources Science, 2013, 35(5): 901-909. ]
[25]	陈秧分, 孙炜琳, 薛桂霞. 粮食适度经营规模的文献评述与理论思考[J]. 中国土地科学, 2015, 29(5): 8-15.
	[Chen Y F, Sun W L, Xue G X.Literature comment and theoretical study on the optimum management scale of farmland[J]. China Land Science, 2015, 29(5): 8-15. ]
[26]	Rounsevell M D A, Pedroli B, Erb K H, et al. Challenges for land system science[J]. Land Use Policy, 2012, 29(4): 899-910.
[27]	张立新, 朱道林, 谢保鹏, 等. 中国粮食主产区耕地利用效率时空格局演变及影响因素: 基于180个地级市的实证研究[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 608-619.
	[Zhang L X, Zhu D L, Xie B P, et al. Spatiotemporal pattern evolvement and driving factors of cultivated land utilization efficiency of the major grain producing area in China[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(4): 608-619. ]
[28]	花晓波, 阎建忠, 王琦, 等. 大渡河上游河谷与半山区耕地利用集约度及影响因素的对比分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2013, 29(20): 234-244.
	[Hua X B, Yan J Z, Wang Q, et al. Comparative analysis on influencing factors of cultivated land use intensity in valley and middle mountain area of upper Dadu River watershed[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2013, 29(20): 234-244. ]
[29]	薛剑, 郧文聚, 杜国明, 等. 基于遥感的现代与传统农业区域土地利用格局差异分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2013, 28(24): 245-251.
	[Xue J, Yun W J, Du G M, et al. Difference analysis of land use patterns in modern and traditional agricultural region based on remote sensing[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2012, 28(24): 245-251. ]
[30]	高珊, 黄贤金. 基于PSR框架的1953-2008年中国生态建设成效评价[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(2): 341-350.
	[Gao S, Huang X J.Performance evaluation of eco-construction based on PSR model in China from 1953 to 2008[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(2): 341-350. ]
[31]	杜国明, 刘彦随. 黑龙江省耕地集约利用评价及分区研究[J]. 资源科学, 2013, 35(3): 554-560.
	[Du G M, Liu Y S.Evaluating and zoning intensive utilization of cultivated land in Heilongjiang province[J]. Resources Science, 2013, 35(3): 554-560.]
[32]	谢花林, 刘曲, 姚冠荣, 等. 基于PSR模型的区域土地利用可持续性水平测度: 以鄱阳湖生态经济区为例[J]. 资源科学, 2015, 37(3): 449-457.
	[Xie H L, Liu Q, Yao G R, et al. Measuring regional land use sustainability of the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone based on PSR modeling[J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(3): 449-457. ]
[33]	袁久和, 祁春节. 基于熵值法的湖南省农业可持续发展能力动态评价[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2013, 22(2): 152-157.
	[Yuan J H, Qi C J.Dynamic assessment of regional agricultural sustainability of Hunan province based on entropy method[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2013, 22(2): 152-157. ]
[34]	李秀彬, 朱会义, 谈明洪, 等. 土地利用集约度的测度方法[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010, 27(6): 12-17.
	[Li X B, Zhu H Y, Tan M H, et al. Measurement of land use intensity[J]. Process in Geography, 2010, 27(6): 12-17. ]
[35]	谢花林, 邹金浪, 彭小琳. 基于能值的鄱阳湖生态经济区耕地利用集约度时空差异分析[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(7): 889-902.
	[Xie H L, Zou J L, Peng X L.Spatial-temporal difference analysis of cultivated land use intensity based on energy in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(7): 889-902. ]
[36]	刘玉, 郭丽英, 刘彦随. 1980—2008年环渤海地区县域粮食的时空动态变化及分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2012, 28(12): 230-236.
	[Liu Y, Guo L Y, Liu Y S.Spatial-temporal dynamic change and analysis of grain production in county scale in Bohai Rim from 1980 to 2008[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2012, 28(12): 230-236. ]
[37]	陈秧分, 李先德. 中国粮食产量变化的时空格局与影响因素[J]. 农业工程学报, 2013, 29(20): 1-10.
	[Chen Y F, Li X D.Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of grain yield change in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2013, 29(20): 1-10. ]
[38]	中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国县市经济统计年鉴1991[M].北京: 中国统计出版社, 1991.
	[National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China County Economic Statistical Yearbook 1991[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1991. ]
[39]	中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国县市经济统计年鉴2015[M].北京: 中国统计出版社, 2015.
	[National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China County Economic Statistical Yearbook 2015 [M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2015. ]
[40]	中华人民共和国国家统计局. 湖南省社会经济统计年鉴1991[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1991.
	[National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. Hunan Province Social and Economic Statistical Yearbook 1991[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1991. ]
[41]	中华人民共和国国家统计局. 湖南省社会经济统计年鉴2015[M].北京: 中国统计出版社, 2015.
	[National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. Hunan Province Social and Economic Statistical Yearbook 2015[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2015. ]
[42]	杨钢桥, 胡柳, 汪文雄. 农户耕地经营适度规模及其绩效研究: 基于湖北6县市农户调查的实证分析[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(3): 505-512.
	[Yang G Q, Hu L, Wang W X.Moderate scale of farmers’ cultivated land management and its performance: An empirical analysis based on questionnaire survey of rural households in 6 counties in Hubei Province[J]. Resources Science, 2011, 33(3): 505-512. ]
[43]	刘玉, 郝星耀, 潘瑜春, 等. 河南省耕地集约利用时空分异及分区研究[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(10): 1218-1225.
	[Liu Y, Hao X Y, Pan Y C, et al. Evaluating and zoning of cultivated land intensive use in Henan province at county level[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014, 34(10): 1218-1225. ]
[44]	赵丽平, 侯德林, 闵锐. 城镇化对农户粮食生产技术效率的影响: 以湖南、河南两省477个农户为例[J]. 中国农业大学学报, 2018, 23(4): 148-156.
	[Zhao L P, Hou D L, Min R.Impact of urbanization on the technical efficiency of grain production: Taking 477 farmers in the two provinces of Hunan and Henan as examples[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University, 2018, 23(4): 148-156. ]

目标层	准则层	指标名称（代码）/单位	指标权重	计算方法	说明
耕地经营协调度CMC	集约指数ID	单位物资投入（C₁）/（t/hm²）	0.082 9	化肥投入/耕地面积	代表区域社会经济条件下耕地的物质投入水平
		单位劳力投入（C₂）/（人/hm²）	0.135 8	农业从业人员/耕地面积	代表区域社会经济条件下耕地的劳动力投入水平
		单位技术投入（C₃）/（kW/hm²）	0.100 6	机械总动力/耕地面积	代表区域社会经济条件下耕地的现代技术投入水平
	规模指数SD	复种指数（C₄）	0.059 4	农作物播种面积/耕地面积	反映单位耕地面积上耕地种植规模
		人均耕地面积（C₅）/（hm²/人）	0.098 8	耕地面积/农业人口	反映区域农业人口的平均耕地经营规模
		非粮比例（C₆）/%	0.095 6	（农作物播种面积–粮食播种面积）/农作物播种面积	反映区域种植结构下特定类型的耕地经营规模
	产能指数PD	粮食单产（C₇）/（kg/hm²）	0.080 5	粮食总产量/耕地面积	体现耕地经营过程中的粮食生产能力
		非粮食单产（C₈）/（kg/hm²）	0.170 8	非粮食总产量/耕地面积	体现耕地经营过程中的非粮食生产能力
		劳均产值（C₉）/（万元/人）	0.110 8	农作物总产值/农业从业人员	体现区域耕地经营过程的农作物产出效率
		地均产值（C₁₀）/（万元/hm²）	0.064 9	农作物总产值/耕地面积	体现区域耕地经营过程中的地均收益

类型	集约指数		规模指数		产能指数		耕地经营协调度
类型	1990年	2014年	1990年	2014年	1990年	2014年	1990年	2014年
Moran’s I值	0.194	0.295	0.197	0.379	0.223	0.143	0.392	0.164
P值	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.005	0.001	0.001
Z值	4.543	6.746	4.579	8.3916	5.009	3.239	9.319	3.716

类型	集约指数与规模指数		集约指数与产能指数		规模指数与产能指数
类型	1990年	2014年	1990年	2014年	1990年	2014年
Moran’s I值	0.002	-0.284	0.112	-0.006	0.134	0.147
P值	0.482	0.001	0.012	0.472	0.006	0.006
Z值	0.013	-5.394	2.33	-0.077	2.793	2.869