资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (1): 196-206.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.01.18

• 资源与环境 • 上一篇    

石漠化综合治理促进了当地经济发展吗?——基于广西县域面板数据的DID实证研究

庞娟1,2(), 冉瑞平1()   

  1. 1. 四川农业大学管理学院,成都 611130
    2. 玉林师范学院商学院,玉林 537000
  • 收稿日期:2018-06-14 出版日期:2019-01-25 发布日期:2019-01-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:庞娟,女,广西玉林人,讲师,博士生,研究方向为农业资源与环境经济管理。E-mail: 15589923@qq.com

  • 基金资助:
    2018年度广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(2018KY0454);玉林师范学院高层次人才启动项目(G2018009);2015年广西高校科学技术研究项目(KY2015LX307)

Does the Rocky Desertification Control Project promote county economic development? An empirical analysis based on DID methods using 88 counties' panel data of Guangxi

Juan PANG1,2(), Ruiping RAN1()   

  1. 1. College of Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
    2. Business School, Yulin Normal University, Yulin 537000, China
  • Received:2018-06-14 Online:2019-01-25 Published:2019-01-25

摘要:

石漠化综合治理工程是中国重大的生态修复工程和民生工程,兼具生态修复与促进社会经济发展、改善民生的重要功能,其实施效果如何是值得关注的重大问题。本文从理论上分析了石漠化综合治理工程对县域经济发展的影响机理,并利用2006—2016年广西88个县域的面板数据,采用双重差分法(DID)估计了石漠化综合治理工程的实施对县域经济发展的政策效应。研究表明:①石漠化综合治理工程的实施对县域经济发展有显著持续的正向促进作用;②石漠化综合治理工程实施的时间越长,其对经济发展的推动作用越大;③经过稳健性检验后上述结论依然成立。本文研究结论肯定了石漠化综合治理一期工程的效果,对石漠化综合治理二期工程的持续开展及后续相关政策的制定具有重要的政策启示。

关键词: 县域经济发展, 石漠化综合治理工程, 政策效应, 双重差分法

Abstract:

The Rocky Desertification Control Project (RDCP) has become a major ecological restoration and livelihood project in the karst areas of Southwest China, which could prevent soil erosion, restore ecological environment, promote social and economic development, and improve household's livelihood. The impact of the RDCP is a major issue worthy of attention. This study theoretically analyzed the influencing mechanism of the RDCP on the development of County economic and evaluated the RDCP's economic impact based on panel data collected from 88 counties of Guangxi province from 2006 to 2016, using the Difference-in-Difference (DID) method. We first estimated the average impact of the RDCP on county economic development. Then we evaluated the dynamic impact of the RDCP, using the panel fixed effect model. The results illustrate that RDCP has a sustainably positive and statistically significant impact on the county economic development. Regardless of whether other variables are controlled, the economic development level of the treat group is significantly higher than that of the control group. Furthermore, the longer the RDCP is implemented, the greater the impact is. It means that with the help of various favorable policy measures for the RDCP, the rocky desertification areas can continuously accumulate favorable factors for economic development and form a “cyclical accumulation. ” With conducting the robustness test, we found that the results of the empirical analysis are reliable. The DID method can indeed give a reasonable estimate of the causal effects of the RDCP and county economic development. The results confirm the positive impact of the first phase of RDCP on the economic development. RDCP will have an important policy implication for the second phase of the RDCP and the establishment of relevant policies.

Key words: county economic development, the Rocky Desertification Control Project, policy effect, Difference-in-Difference method