资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (1): 164-175.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.01.15

• 气候资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

西藏高原冬虫夏草产区气候变化特征分析

周刊社(), 洪健昌(), 罗珍, 石磊   

  1. 西藏自治区气候中心,拉萨 850001
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-27 出版日期:2019-01-25 发布日期:2019-01-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:周刊社,男,陕西周至人,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为生态与农业气象,农业气候资源利用。E-mail: zhoukanshe@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201849,CCSF201610);气候变化专项“气候变化对西藏春青稞产量的影响研究”

Analysis on climate change characteristics in the distribution area of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) on Tibet

Kanshe ZHOU(), Jianchang HONG(), Zhen LUO, Lei SHI   

  1. Tibet Climate Center, Lhasa 850001, China
  • Received:2018-04-27 Online:2019-01-25 Published:2019-01-25

摘要:

了解西藏高原冬虫夏草产区气候变化对当地冬虫夏草资源可持续利用和生态环境保护十分重要。本文利用产区24个气象站1981—2015年的气温、降水、日照资料,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,对产区气温、降水和日照的变化时空特征进行了分析,并集合平均5种气候模式在RCP4.5、RCP8.5两种情景下对产区未来年平均气温和年降水量进行了模拟预估。结果表明:近35年产区年平均气温表现为明显的升高趋势,冬春季升温最为显著,其次为夏秋季;雨季平均气温升温率小于年平均气温升温率。年和雨季的平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈显著升高趋势,绝大部分站点的年、雨季平均最低气温升温率和平均最高气温升温率均明显大于同期平均气温升温率。年降水量大部分站点为增加趋势,但地区差异性较大;年平均日照时数和雨季日照时数均表现为明显的减少趋势。预估表明产区21世纪未来不同时段气候均表现为气温升高,降水增多的暖湿化发展趋势。未来冬虫夏草适宜海拔下限直接抬升将导致适宜区范围缩小,气候变化将对冬虫夏草的产生和生长造成严重威胁。

关键词: 冬虫夏草, 升温率, Mann-Kendall法, 暖湿化, 西藏高原

Abstract:

It is very important to understand the climate change about distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus for the local ecological environment protection and the sustainable use of Ophiocordyceps sinensis in Tibet. In this paper, temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours data of 24 weather stations in the distribution area from 1981 to 2015 were analyzed with linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall break detector based on the average annual temperature, average rainy season temperature, annual precipitation and rainy season precipitation and other data. Climate model simulation was used to estimate average annual temperature and annual precipitation in the future under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the distribution area. The results showed that the average annual temperature of O. sinensis in Tibet has been increasing significantly, and the warming rate in the rainy season is lower than the annual warming rate. The warming is more significant in winter or spring than summer and autumn. Simultaneously, the average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature in the annual and rainy seasons showed a significant increase trend, and the warming rate had obvious regional characteristics. The increase rates of average annual minimum temperature and average annual maximum temperature in most stations are significantly greater than the increase rate of average annual temperature. The annual rainfall is increasing at most sites, but there are large regional differences, and it was found that the annual average sunshine hours and the rainy season hours showed significant reduction trend. It is estimated that the temperature in different areas in this century will increase significantly and precipitation will increase in different periods in the future. With the local climate warming and humidity, the suitable range of elevation of O. sinensis will rise. However, There is no suitable living condition for it, the lower limit of elevation will rise directly, and the range of suitable O. sinensis will be reduced to pose a serious threat to the inducement and growth of O. sinensis.

Key words: Chinese Caterpillar Fungus, warming rate, Mann-Kendall method, warm and humid, Tibet