资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (1): 142-151.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.01.13

• 能源与碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

出口商品结构对碳生产率的门槛效应研究

邵桂兰1(), 常瑶1, 李晨1,2()   

  1. 1. 中国海洋大学经济学院,青岛 266100
    2. 中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,青岛 266100
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-13 出版日期:2019-01-25 发布日期:2019-01-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:邵桂兰,女,山东青岛人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为国际贸易与低碳经济。E-mail: shaoguilan@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学规划基金项目(11BJY064);山东省社会科学规划研究项目重大理论与实践问题研究专项(18CSJJ01);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2016GQ05)

Threshold effect of merchandise export structure on carbon productivity

Guilan SHAO1(), Yao CHANG1, Chen LI1,2()   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
    2. Marine Development Studies Institute, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
  • Received:2018-04-13 Online:2019-01-25 Published:2019-01-25

摘要:

面对全球气候变暖和国际碳减排压力增大,发展低碳经济成为各国共同关心的话题,发展低碳经济的核心是提高衡量单位碳排放经济效益的碳生产率。本文基于36个国家1996—2014年的年度数据,采用面板门槛模型,分别以经济发展水平和技术水平为门槛变量研究出口商品结构对碳生产率的门槛效应,并考察如何利用这种效应提高碳生产率。结果表明,出口商品结构对碳生产率始终产生抑制作用,经济发展和技术处于高水平时出口商品结构对碳生产率抑制作用均增强。因此,只有推动经济发展和技术达到一定水平才能充分发挥出口商品结构调整对碳生产率的提高作用。此外,出口商品结构对碳生产率的影响具有显著区域差异。针对本文的研究结论,提出了相关建议。

关键词: 门槛效应, 碳生产率, 出口商品结构, 碳减排

Abstract:

In the face of global warming and the increasing pressure of international carbon emission reduction, the development of a low-carbon economy has become a common concern in all countries. The core of the development of a low-carbon economy is to improve the carbon productivity which can measure the economic benefits of carbon emissions per unit. Therefore, the identification of the factors of carbon productivity will provide an empirical evidence for increasing carbon productivity in various countries and exhibit a reference for reducing carbon emission intensity in China. Based on the 1996-2014 annual data of 36 countries, this study adopted a panel threshold model to study the threshold of merchandise exports structure for carbon productivity by using the economic development level and technology level threshold variables and learn how to use this influence to improve carbon productivity. The results demonstrate that the merchandise export structure has always been an inhibitory effect on carbon productivity, which is strong when the economic and technology development is in a relatively high level. We assume that merchandise export structure adjustment can improve carbon productivity when economic development and technology is in a proper level. In addition, the impact of merchandise export structure on carbon productivity has a significant regional difference. Based on the conclusion of this study, relevant suggestions are put forward. It is essential to optimize the structure of export commodities and improve energy efficiency from different perspectives of variable threshold system. It is also needed to solve the contradiction between carbon productivity increase and carbon emission increase, maintain appropriate economic growth rates, absorb advanced technology spillover, and improve the technical level.

Key words: threshold effect, carbon productivity, merchandise exports structure, carbon emission reduction