水资源稀缺性感知影响农户地下水利用效率的路径分析——基于华北井灌区1168份调查数据的实证

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.01.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文将水资源稀缺性感知划分为水量短缺认知、水位下降认知、风险认知、机井使用感受和灌溉感受五个维度,利用华北井灌区1168户农户户主的调查数据,运用边际结构模型（MSM）逆向概率加权（IPW）估计方法剔除气候、资源禀赋等伪关联因素的影响,实证分析了水资源稀缺性感知对农户地下水资源利用效率的影响机制。结果发现：稀缺性感知影响地下水利用效率既有直接影响也有间接影响,其中间接影响发挥作用更大。直接影响是通过水量短缺认知和水位下降认知来实现的,即认知水平越高,地下水利用效率越高。稀缺性感知通过影响超采行为、节水技术采用行为和水利设施维护等投入行为决策间接作用于地下水利用效率,且风险认知、灌溉感受和行为决策间存在交互效应。风险认知水平高导致超采行为频发,降低地下水利用效率;灌溉感受越差的农户水利设施维护动力越强烈,从而提高地下水利用效率;节水技术采用行为有利于实现地下水的高效利用。

关键词: 水资源稀缺性感知, 地下水利用效率, 影响路径, 边际结构模型

Abstract:

This study classified water scarcity perception into five dimensions: water quantity shortage recognition, water table decline recognition, risk recognition, well usage experience, and irrigation experience. Then, we characterized the water scarcity perception's effect path on groundwater use efficiency (GWUE) through theoretical and empirical approach by the application of marginal structure model (MSM) reverse weighted probability (IPW) estimation which erased the influence of pseudo-correlation factors such as climate and resource endowment based on 1168 farmers' survey data Well-irrigated District in North China. The results demonstrated that: the average score of farmers' groundwater use efficiency was 0.743. There is still a large space for improvement in the utilization of groundwater resources. Water scarcity perception would have a direct and or indirect effect on GWUE, while indirect effect plays a more important role than direct effect. Direct effect on GWUE was identified positively through two factors: water quantity shortage recognition and water table decline recognition, that is, the higher level of water quantity shortage recognition and water table decline recognition, the higher GWUE. Indirect effects of water scarcity perception on GWUE are observed through farmers' behavior such as groundwater over-exploitation, water-saving behavior, and water conservancy facilities maintenance. There are interactive effects among risk cognition, irrigation experience, and behavior decision. High level of risk cognition leads to frequent groundwater over-exploitation behavior, which reduces GWUE. Farmers with worse experience in using irrigation systems would have a stronger willingness to maintain water conservancy facilities, so as to improve GWUE. Farmers' water-saving behavior is beneficial to increase GWUE. In addition, the level of farmers’ education has a significant positive effect on the groundwater usage efficiency. If the levels of education are improved in one degree, the utilization efficiency of groundwater increases by 0.026 units.

Key words: water scarcity perception, groundwater use efficiency, effect path, marginal structure model

王昕, 陆迁. 水资源稀缺性感知影响农户地下水利用效率的路径分析——基于华北井灌区1168份调查数据的实证[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(1): 87-97.

Xin WANG, Qian LU. Path characterization of water resources scarcity perception's effects on farmers' groundwater usage efficiency——empirical study based on 1168 survey data of Well-irrigated District in North China[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(1): 87-97.

图/表 8

表1

表5

图1

表2

表3

表4

表6

表7

参考文献 31

[1]	王金霞, 黄季焜, Scott Rozelle. 地下水灌溉系统产权制度的创新与理论解释——小型水利工程的实证研究[J]. 经济研究, 2000, (04): 66-74 +79.
	[Wang J X, Huang J K, Scott Rozelle. Theinnovation and theoretical interpretation of the property rights system of groundwater irrigation system: an empirical study of small water conservancy [J]. Economic Research, 2000, (04): 66-74 +79. ]
[2]	宋春晓, 马恒运, 黄季焜, 等. 气候变化和农户适应性对小麦灌溉效率影响——基于中东部5省小麦主产区的实证研究[J]. 农业技术经济, 2014, (02): 4-16.
	[Song C X, Ma H Y, Huang J K, et al. Effects of climate change and farmers adaptation on wheat irrigation efficiency: an empirical study based on the main wheat production areas in the five central and eastern provinces[J]. Agricultural Technical Economy, 2014, (02): 4-16. ]
[3]	刘七军, 李昭楠. 不同规模农户生产技术效率及灌溉用水效率差异研究——基于内陆干旱区农户微观调查数据[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2012, 20(10): 1375-1381.
	[Liu Q J, Li Z N.Study on the technical efficiency of production and irrigation water efficiency of different scale farmers: based on the micro survey data of farmers in inland arid areas[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology and Agriculture, 2012, 20(10): 1375-1381. ]
[4]	邓娅敏, 徐恒力, 佟元清. “有序”开采: 北方地区地下水资源利用中两难选择的途径[J]. 中国人口. 资源与环境, 2006, (01): 127-131.
	[Deng Y M, Xu H L, Tong Y Q."Orderly" exploitation: the dilemma in the use of groundwater resources in the northern region[J]. Chinese Population, Resources and Environment, 2006, (01): 127-1314]
[5]	李鹤, 刘永功. 农村地下水管理存在的问题及对策[J]. 红旗文稿, 2007, (15): 26-28.
	[Li H, Liu Y G.Problems and countermeasures in rural groundwater management[J]. Red Flag Manuscript, 2007, (15): 26-28. ]
[6]	赵雪雁, 薛冰. 干旱区内陆河流域农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应 ——以石羊河中下游为例[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(12): 1622-1630.
	[Zhao X Y, Xue B.Perception and adaptation of farmers in inland river basin in the dry zone to water resources shortage: acase study of middle and lower Shiyang River[J]. Geoscience, 2015, 35(12): 1622-1630. ]
[7]	Varghese S K, Veettil P C, Speelman S, et al. Estimating the causal effect of water scarcity on the groundwater use efficiency of rice farming in South India[J]. Ecological Economics, 2013: 55-64.
[8]	Shah T, Roy A D, Qureshi A S, et al. Sustaining Asia's groundwater boom: an overview of issues and evidence[J]. Natural Resources Forum, 2003, 27(2): 130-141.
[9]	黄玉祥, 韩文霆, 周龙, 等. 农户节水灌溉技术认知及其影响因素分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2012, 28(18): 113-120.
	[Huang Y X, Han W T, Zhou L, et al. The cognition of water saving irrigation technology of farmers and its influencing factors[J]. Journal of Agricultural Engineering, 2012, 28(18): 113-120. ]
[10]	王晓娟, 李周. 灌溉用水效率及影响因素分析[J]. 中国农村经济, 2005, (07): 11-18.
	[Wang X J, Li Z.Analysis of irrigation water efficiency and influencing factors[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2005, (07): 11-18. ]
[11]	Pereira L S, Oweis T, Zairi A.Irrigation management under water scarcity[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2002, 57(3): 175-206.
[12]	Tang J, Folmer H, Xue J, et al. Estimation of awareness and perception of water scarcity among farmers in the Guanzhong Plain, China, by means of a structural equation model[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2013: 55-62.
[13]	Färe R., Grosskopf S., Lovell C.A.K. Production Frontiers[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994: 94-103.
[14]	Watto, M. A. and Mugera, A. W. Measuring groundwater irrigation efficiency in Pakistan: a DEA approach using the Sub-vector and Slack-based Models[EB/OL]. .
[15]	雍会, 张风丽, 张晓莉, 等. 干旱区塔里木河流域地下水资源统筹管理研究[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2016, 37(1): 90-94.
	[Yong H, Zhang F L, Zhang X L, et al. Study on integrated management of groundwater resources in Tarim River Basin in dry zone[J]. China Agricultural Resources and Zoning, 2016, 37(1): 90-94. ]
[16]	Osés-Eraso, N. , Viladrich-Grau, M. , On the sustainability of common propertyresources[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 2007, 53: 393-410.
[17]	Molden D, Oweis T, Steduto P, et al. Improving agricultural water productivity: between optimism and caution[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2010, 97(4): 528-535.
[18]	Venot J, Reddy V R, Umapathy D, et al. Coping with drought in irrigated South India: farmers' adjustments in NagarjunaSagar[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2010, 97(10): 1434-1442.
[19]	Grossman H I, Mendoza J.Scarcity and appropriative competition[J]. European Journal of Political Economy, 2003, 19(4): 747-758.
[20]	Herr A, Gardner R, Walker J M, et al. An experimental study of time-independent and time-dependent externalities in the commons[J]. Games and Economic Behavior, 1997, 19(1): 77-96.
[21]	Kaneko S, Tanaka K, Toyota T, et al. Water efficiency of agricultural production in China: regional comparison from 1999 to 2002[J]. International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, 2004: 231-251.
[22]	彭致功, 刘钰, 许迪, 等. 农业节水措施对地下水涵养的作用及其敏感性分析[J]. 农业机械学报, 2012, 43(07): 36-41.
	[Peng Z G, Liu Y, Xu D, et al. Effects of agricultural water conservation measures on groundwater conservation and its sensitivity analysis[J]. Journal of Agricultural Machinery, 2012, 43(07): 36-41. ]
[23]	周玉玺, 周霞, 宋欣. 影响农户农业节水技术采用水平差异的因素分析——基于山东省17市333个农户的问卷调查[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2014, 28(03): 37-43.
	[Zhou Y, Zhou X, Song X.Analysis of factors affecting the level differences in the adoption of agricultural water conservation technology for farmers-based on the questionnaire survey of 333 farmers in 17 cities in Shandong Province[J]. Drought Zone Resources and Environment, 2014, 28(03): 37-43. ]
[24]	刘红梅, 王克强, 黄智俊. 影响中国农户采用节水灌溉技术行为的因素分析[J]. 中国农村经济, 2008(04): 44-54.
	[Liu H M, Wang K Q, Huang Z J.Analysis of factors affecting the behavior of Chinesefarmers using water-saving irrigation technology[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2008(04): 44-54. ]
[25]	刘亚克, 王金霞, 李玉敏, 等. 农业节水技术的采用及影响因素[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(06): 932-942.
	[Liu Y K, Wang J X, Li Y M, et al. Adoption of agricultural water-saving technology and influencing factors[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(06): 932-942. ]
[26]	Falkenmark M, Widstrand C.Population and water resources: a delicate balance.[J]. Population Bulletin, 1993, 47(3): 1-36.
[27]	Ostrom E, Burger J, Field C B, et al. Revisiting the commons: local lessons, global challenges[J]. Science, 1999, 284(5412): 278-282.
[28]	Vansteelandt S.Estimating direct effects in cohort and case-control studies[J]. Epidemiology, 2009, 20(6): 851-860.
[29]	齐顾波, 常宏蕾, 徐秀丽. 农村地下水资源管理中的获取机制研究——以河北省A村为例[J]. 水资源保护, 2009, 25(6): 94-98.
	[Qi G B, Chang H L, Xu X L.Study on the access mechanism in rural groundwater resources management: a village in Hebei Province as an example[J]. Water Resources Protection, 2009, 25(6): 94-98. ]
[30]	李玉敏, 王金霞. 农村水资源短缺: 现状、趋势及其对作物种植结构的影响——基于全国10个省调查数据的实证分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(02): 200-208.
	[Li Y M, Wang J X.Rural water shortage: current situation, trends and their impact on crop cultivation structure: an empirical analysis based on the survey data of ten provinces across the country[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(02): 200-208. ]
[31]	Karagiannis G, Tzouvelekas V, Xepapadeas A.Measuring irrigation water efficiency with a stochastic production frontier[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2003, 26(1): 57-72.

一级指标	指标说明	定义及赋值
水量稀缺认知（QR）	地下水资源总量非常稀缺	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
	未来水资源短缺危机加剧	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
水位下降认知（TR）	地下水抽取太多造成地面下陷	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
	近几年水井水位下降的很严重	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
	未来新井越打越深	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
风险认知（RR）	旱灾频发会给生产造成损失	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
	水井荒废会给生产造成损失	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
	灌溉面积减少会给生产造成损失	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
	灌溉水质污染会给生产造成损失	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
灌溉感受（WE）	近年来灌溉水价升高	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
	灌溉排队等候时间长	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
机井使用感受（PE）	近几年打井的成本提高了	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5
机井使用感受（PE）	近几年水井干枯严重	非常不同意=1,比较同意=2,一般=3,比较同意=4,非常同意=5

技术效率	尚未采用节水技术行为农户		采用节水技术行为农户
技术效率	频数	占比/%	频数	占比/%
[0.000~0.250)	78	9.974	24	6.218
[0.250~0.500)	146	18.670	56	14.508
[0.500~0.750)	114	14.578	52	13.472
[0.750~1.000)	329	42.072	107	27.720
1.000	115	14.706	147	38.082
合计	782	100.000	386	100.000

	选项	人数	比例/%		选项	人数	比例/%
户主性别	男	648	55.479	受教育程度	文盲	350	29.966
	女	520	44.521		小学	436	37.329
受访者年龄/岁	[20,35]	34	2.911		初中	43	3.681
	[36,50]	270	23.116		高中	287	24.572
	[51,65]	582	49.829		大学及以上	52	4.452
	[66,80]	282	24.144	2015年家庭农业年收入/万元	2以下	580	49.657
灌溉面积/hm²	0.268以下	178	15.240		[2,4)	332	28.425
	[0.268,0.536)	614	52.568		[4,6)	136	11.644
	[0.536,0.804)	280	23.973		[6,8)	80	6.849
	0.804以上	96	8.219		8及以上	40	3.425

	指标说明	平均值	标准差	极小值	极大值
产出指标
小麦单产	当年小麦产量/（kg/ hm²）	7 103.955	153.963	2 985.075	11 194.030
投入指标
劳动投入	当年投入的劳动力/（d/ hm²）	27.164	1.677	2.239	268.657
资本投入	当年投入的资本,包括种子、化肥、农药、机械等/（元/ hm²）	8 510.299	254.249	426.418	30 597.015
地下水灌溉	当年使用的地下水量/（m³/ hm²）	3 656.866	373.743	68.358	53 174.179

	变量说明	平均值	标准差	极小值	极大值
因变量
地下水资源利用效率	根据DEA方法的分向量模型计算得分	0.743	0.303	0.017	1.000
核心自变量（稀缺性感知）
水量短缺认知	根据因子分析方法计算得分	0.011	1.011	-0.919	4.167
水位下降认知	根据因子分析方法计算得分	0.010	0.991	-3.766	1.467
风险认知	根据因子分析方法计算得分	-0.020	1.005	-2.673	2.442
灌溉感受	根据因子分析方法计算得分	0.024	0.996	-2.572	2.455
机井使用感受	根据因子分析方法计算得分	0.014	0.994	-2.557	2.450
中介变量（投入行为决策）
节水技术采用行为	您是否采用节水技术?采用=1,不采用=0	0.330	0.470	0.000	1.000
超采行为	您近年来是否出现地下水超额灌溉?偶尔发生=1,时有发生=2,经常发生=3	1.990	0.608	1.000	3.000
水利设施维护	维护水平较低=1,维护水平一般=2,维护水平较高=3	1.636	0.483	1.000	3.000
控制变量
受教育程度	文盲=1,小学=2,初中=3,高中=4,大学及以上=5	2.363	1.261	1.000	5.000
农业收入	农业收入对数	9.712	0.945	6.907	11.513