中部地区资源环境、经济和城镇化形势与绿色崛起战略研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.01.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中部地区具有承东启西、连南通北的区位优势,是国家区域协调发展战略的重点区。近年来中部地区城镇化水平不断提高、经济实力大幅提升,已经步入了加快发展、全面崛起的新阶段。随之出现了一系列严峻的环境问题,亟待迈入绿色崛起之路。本文在对中部地区经济社会发展与城镇化基本态势判断的基础上,对其出现的典型资源环境问题等进行对比分析,发现其污染状况呈现加重趋势。基于环境库兹涅茨曲线及系统动力学模型,分析得到中部地区经济增长和环境污染依旧延续了传统“先污染后治理”的老路,提出了主要污染物减排投入路径。未来中部地区应积极响应绿色崛起战略,建立健全生态补偿及污染联防联控机制,推动产业结构绿色转型和优化升级,探索经济社会与资源环境协调可持续发展新机制。

关键词: 中部地区, 经济社会, 城镇化, 环境问题, 绿色发展

Abstract:

Central China has the geographical advantages of locating at the transition point of the east and the west of China, and connecting the south and north of China, which is a key development zone for the regional harmonious development of the country. The central region is the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the Yellow River Economic Belt crossing the driving region. It is the regional development strategy of the country's overall development strategy. It is the rising and radiating region of the central urban agglomerations. It is an important industrial transfer bearing area and a regional coordinated development of China. In recent years, the level of urbanization in the central region has been continuously improved and the economic strength has been greatly improved. It has entered a new stage of accelerating development and comprehensive rise. A series of serious environmental problems have emerged. It is urgent to seek a green road to rise. Based on the judgment of the basic situation of economic and social development and urbanization in the central region, this study conducts a comparative analysis of the typical resource and environmental problems. We further identify that its pollution situation is aggravating. Based on the environmental Kuznets curve and the system dynamics model, the analysis shows that the economic growth and environmental pollution in the central region continue the trend of traditional “first pollution after treatment” model. The main pollutant emission reduction input path is refined. In the future, the central region should actively respond to the green rising strategy, establish and improve the ecological compensation and pollution joint prevention and control mechanism, promote the optimization of industrial structure, and explore a new mechanism for coordinated and sustainable development of the economy, society and resources.

Key words: Central China, economic society, urbanization, environmental issues, green development

董锁成, 史丹, 李富佳, 刘佳骏, 李飞, 叶振宇, 李泽红, 李宇, 张荣霞, 任扬, 李静楠, 张文彪. 中部地区资源环境、经济和城镇化形势与绿色崛起战略研究[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(1): 33-42.

Suocheng DONG, Dan SHI, Fujia LI, Jiajun LIU, Fei LI, Zhenyu YE, Zehong LI, Yu LI, Rongxia ZHANG, Yang REN, Jingnan LI, Wenbiao ZHANG. Study on the resource environment, economy and urbanization situation and green rise strategy in Central China[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(1): 33-42.

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	新增就业/万人		（II）/（I）	累计投资/亿元		（II）/（I）
	期间（I）2009—2013年	期间（II）2014—2016年	（II）/（I）	期间（I）2009—2013年	期间（II）2014—2016年	（II）/（I）
山西	8.9	64.0	7.19	29 491.1	30 518.7	1.03
安徽	83.6	85.7	1.03	25 453.3	54 272.4	2.13
江西	45.2	48.9	1.08	14 064.1	38 237.6	2.72
河南	183.4	339.0	1.85	46 028.5	106 857.6	2.32
湖北	73.9	259.1	3.51	32 880.5	58 469.4	1.78
湖南	89.3	174.8	1.96	22 406.5	53 765.2	2.40
中部	484.3	971.6	2.01	170 323.9	342 120.8	2.01

年份	转移就业规模	转移就业去向			新增转移就业
年份	转移就业规模	省内就业	省外就业	省内外差额	新增转移就业
2010	2 357	1 142	1 215	-73	105
2011	2 458	1 268	1 190	78	101
2012	2 570	1 451	1 119	332	112
2013	2 660	1 523	1 137	386	90
2017	2 939	1 762	1 177	585	63

	2013年				2016年
	化肥施用量 /万t	单位面积化肥施用量/(t/ hm²)	农药使用量/t	单位面积使用量/(t/ hm²)	化肥施用量 /万t	单位面积化肥施用量/(t/ hm²)	农药使用量/t	单位面积使用量/(t/ hm²)
全国	5 911.90	0.931	1 801 862	0.028	5 984.00	0.359	938 775.5	0.006
中部	1 897.50	1.024	629 738	0.034	1 886.28	1.012	491 382.7	0.011
山西	121.00	0.875	30 534	0.022	117.10	0.327	28 017.7	0.008
安徽	338.40	0.786	117 774	0.027	327.01	0.368	105 704.0	0.012
江西	141.60	0.710	99 922	0.050	142.00	0.255	48 100.0	0.009
河南	696.40	1.401	130 058	0.026	735.24	0.510	143 700.0	0.993
湖北	351.90	1.261	127 152	0.046	327.96	0.418	47 200.0	0.006
湖南	248.20	0.805	124 298	0.040	236.97		118 661.0	0.029

污染物	情景1	情景2	情景3	情景4	最优减排投入路径
SO₂	无减排	新常态经济增速下降	全国平均减排标准	欧盟标准减排	“十三五”期间年脱硫投入32亿元,初步达到欧盟2001/81/EC 标准,2021—2030年,根据SO₂产生量,年脱硫投入从27.28亿元,逐步增加至35亿元
废水	无减排	现状工业增速和治理投入	全国平均减排标准	发达国家减排投入标准	“十三五”期间年投入28.95亿元,2020年基本实现工业废水全部处理;2021—2030年,年投入从17.37亿元逐步增加至26.78亿元
城市生活垃圾	无减排	现状垃圾处理比例	2020年完全处理		“十三五”期间年投资约20亿元,至2020年实现城市生活垃圾完全处理;2021—2030年,年投入还需依城镇化率增速而增加