资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 2425-2437.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.12.10

• 能源资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国天然气安全评价及影响因素分析

郭明晶1,2,3(), 卜炎1(), 陈从喜1,2, 齐睿1   

  1. 1. 中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉 430074
    2. 自然资源部国土资源战略研究重点实验室,北京 100812
    3. 中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境经济研究中心,武汉 430074
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-24 修回日期:2018-09-05 出版日期:2018-12-20 发布日期:2018-12-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:郭明晶,男,湖北枣阳人,博士,副教授,研究方向为资源管理工程、能源经济。E-mail:guomingjing@cug.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(11YJC790052);国家社会科学基金项目(14CKS014);中国地质调查局地质勘查调查评价项目(121101000000160002)

Assessment of natural gas security and its impact factors in China

Mingjing GUO1,2,3(), Yan BU1(), Congxi CHEN1,2, Rui QI1   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Land and Resources Strategy Research, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100812, China
    3. Research Center of Mineral Strategy and Policy, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2018-05-24 Revised:2018-09-05 Online:2018-12-20 Published:2018-12-10

摘要:

研究中国天然气安全状况,分析影响因素并找出系统性的应对策略对于保障中国能源安全、促进中国经济社会可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于生态文明建设和能源转型的时代背景,从供应安全、储运安全、市场安全和环境安全四个维度,构建了中国天然气安全评价指标体系。运用组合赋权法对指标赋权,从总体、区域和省域三个层面对中国天然气安全状况进行了评价。总体评价结果表明,全国天然气安全均值为0.546,2006—2015年间虽然天然气安全水平在上升,但是总体安全状况一般,主要原因在于中国天然气产量低,对外依存度较大;天然气管道建设滞后,调峰能力不足;天然气市场价格机制不完善;环境治理压力较大。区域评价结果表明,全国四大区域天然气综合安全的均值为东部(0.582)>中部(0.571)>西部(0.516)>东北(0.515),呈现出“东部最好,中部次之,西部和东北偏低”的特征。分析得出,天然气安全的影响因素在东部地区主要集中体现于市场安全,在中部地区主要集中于供应安全,在西部地区主要集中于市场安全和环境安全,在东北地区主要集中于供应安全和储运安全。省域评价结果表明,各省域天然气安全水平差异较大,其中7个省份的天然气安全水平处于上升趋势,5个省份天然气安全水平处于下降趋势,8个省份的天然气安全水平波动较大,10个省份的天然气安全水平趋于平稳;各省域在供应安全、储运安全、市场安全和环境安全具有明显的空间集聚效应。最后,分别从国家层面、区域层面和省域层面提出了保障中国天然气安全的对策建议。

关键词: 天然气, 安全评价, 影响因素, 组合赋权法, 中国

Abstract:

Studying the security state of China's natural gas, analyzing the influencing factors, and finding the systematic coping strategies are of great significance for promoting China's sustainable economic and social development and ensuring China's energy security. Based on the historical background of ecological civilization construction and energy structure adjustment, this current study constructs the security evaluation index system of China's natural gas security state from the four dimensions of security of supply, storage and transportation, market, and environment and uses the combination weighting method to carry out index empowerment. China's natural gas security has been evaluated in terms of overall, regional, and provincial aspects. The overall evaluation results show that the average national natural gas security is 0.546. Although the natural gas security level has been rising from 2006 to 2015, the overall security state is general. The results of regional evaluation show that the average security of natural gas in the four major regions in China is 0.582 in the east, 0.571 in the central area, 0.516 in the west, and 0.515 in the northeast, presenting the characteristics of “the best in the east, the second in the central area, the poor in the west and northeast. ” The results of provincial evaluation illustrate a great difference in the security levels of natural gas in different provinces. Among them, there are seven provinces rising, five provinces declining, eight provinces fluctuating greatly, and ten provinces stabilizing. The provinces have met obvious spatial agglomeration effects on security of supply, storage and transportation, market and environment. Finally, proposed from the national, regional, and provincial levels, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for guaranteeing China's natural gas security.

Key words: natural gas, security evaluation, impact factors, combination weighting method, China