家庭农场有机农业采纳行为的空间依赖性

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.11.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文基于黄淮海平原366户家庭农场的实地调研数据,运用全局Moran’s I,构建贝叶斯空间杜宾Probit模型,设定合适的空间权重矩阵,从中选择最优模型进行参数估计,并借助偏微分方法,分解特征变量对家庭农场有机农业采纳行为的直接效应和空间溢出效应。研究结果表明：①邻近家庭农场有机农业采纳行为存在空间相关性;②家庭农场相距2.0km以内,其有机农业采纳行为的空间依赖性最强;③受教育程度、风险偏好程度、劳动力数量、资金状况、环保意识、对有机农业的认知程度、参加培训、从媒体获取信息程度、市场信息获取程度以及认识已采纳有机农业的农场主均显著正向影响家庭农场有机农业采纳行为,而农场主的性别、年龄显著负向影响家庭农场有机农业采纳行为;④家庭农场有机农业采纳行为主要是各特征变量直接效应的结果,但邻近家庭农场特征变量的空间溢出效应也不容忽视,尤其是邻近家庭农场是否参与培训、劳动力数量和资金状况。这一研究结论不仅为示范推广有机农业的有效性提供了理论支撑,也为选择什么样的家庭农场作为示范户提供了参考依据。

关键词: 家庭农场, 有机农业, 空间溢出效应, 贝叶斯空间杜宾Probit模型

Abstract:

Based on the field research data of 366 family farms in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, this paper used the method of global Moran’s I, developed a Bayesian spatial Durbin Probit model and set the appropriate spatial weight matrix, then selected the optimal model to estimate parameters. Direct effects and spatial spillover effects of characteristic variables on family farms’ adoption behavior of organic agriculture were determined by using partial differential method. The results show that organic agricultural adoption behaviors of the neighboring family farms have a spatial correlation. When family farms are within a 2.0 km distance, their organic agricultural adoption behaviors have the most spatial dependence. The educational level, risk preference degree, number of laborers, fund status, environmental awareness, cognition degree on organic agriculture, participation in training, access to information from the media, market information acquisition degree and know the farmers who have adopted organic agriculture have positive influences on organic agricultural adoption behaviors of family farms. However, gender and age have negative influences on organic agricultural adoption behaviors of family farms. In addition, the organic agricultural adoption behaviors of family farms is mainly influenced by direct effects of their characteristic variables. However, the spatial spillover effects of neighboring family farms’ characteristic variables can not be ignored, especially their participation in training, number of laborers and fund status. This conclusion not only provides theoretical support for the effectiveness of demonstration and extension of organic agriculture, but also provides a reference for choosing what kind of family farm to be the model family farm.

Key words: family farms, organic agriculture, spatial spillover effect, Bayesian spatial Durbin Probit model

王小楠, 朱晶, 薄慧敏. 家庭农场有机农业采纳行为的空间依赖性[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(11): 2270-2279.

Xiaonan WANG, Jing ZHU, Huimin BO. Spatial dependence of family farms’ adoption behaviors of organic agriculture[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(11): 2270-2279.

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省份	地级市	县（市、区）
河北	保定	安新
	保定	博野
	邯郸	成安
	邯郸	大名
河南	开封	杞县
	开封	通许
	南阳	内乡
	南阳	新野
安徽	滁州	定远
	滁州	凤阳
	阜阳	太和
	阜阳	阜南
山东	潍坊	寿光
	潍坊	青州
	烟台	栖霞
	烟台	莱阳
江苏	常州	溧阳
	常州	金坛
	宿迁	沭阳
	宿迁	泗阳

变量类型	变量名称	变量赋值	均值	标准差
因变量	是否采纳有机农业	采纳=1,不采纳=0	0.295	0.456
农场主特征	性别	男=1,女=0	0.667	0.472
	年龄/岁	实际年龄	42.165	10.961
	受教育程度	小学及以下=1,初中=2,高中或中专=3, 大专及以上=4	2.773	0.898
	风险偏好程度	非常厌恶=1,非常偏好=7	4.137	1.875
资源禀赋特征	劳动力数量/人	实际家庭劳动力和长期雇工的加总	7.970	5.190
	经营耕地面积/hm²	实际经营耕地面积	9.058	9.137
	资金状况	非常短缺=1,非常充裕=7	2.814	1.522
心理认知特征	环保意识	非常低=1,非常高=7	4.322	1.672
心理认知特征	对有机农业的认知程度	非常低=1,非常高=7	4.106	0.629
信息特征	参加培训	是=1,否=0	0.781	0.414
	从媒体获取信息程度	非常低=1,非常高=7	4.265	1.938
	市场信息获取程度	非常低=1,非常高=7	4.217	1.653
	认识已采纳有机农业的农场主	是=1,否=0	0.549	0.498

模型规范	后验模型概率	ρ
d=2.0km	0.493	0.381（ρ=0.008）
d=2.5km	0.204	0.168（ρ=0.045）
d=3.0km	0.118	0.124（ρ=0.057）
d=3.5km	0.085	0.081（ρ=0.098）
d=4.0km	0.062	0.051（ρ=0.119）

变量	系数	t值	变量	系数	t值
性别	-0.213***	-2.612	W×性别	-0.089*	-1.742
年龄	-0.204***	-3.016	W×年龄	-0.066*	-1.697
受教育程度	0.328***	3.873	W×受教育程度	0.073*	1.709
风险偏好程度	0.217***	2.877	W×风险偏好程度	0.068*	1.699
劳动力数量	0.241***	3.473	W×劳动力数量	0.102*	1.893
经营耕地面积	0.059	0.951	W×经营耕地面积	0.013	0.724
资金状况	0.262***	3.405	W×资金状况	0.097*	1.807
环保意识	0.203***	2.792	W×环保意识	0.088*	1.820
对有机农业的认知程度	0.284***	3.182	W×对有机农业的认知程度	0.076*	1.774
参加培训	0.325***	3.438	W×参加培训	0.118*	1.801
从媒体获取信息程度	0.186***	2.792	W×从媒体获取信息程度	0.054*	1.665
市场信息获取程度	0.214***	3.085	W×市场信息获取程度	0.072*	1.754
认识已采纳有机农业农场主	0.309***	2.803	W×认识已采纳有机农业农场主	0.079*	1.725
常数项	5.457**	2.153	R²	0.721
空间滞后因变量 ρ	0.409***	8.725	log-likelihood	-117.632

变量	直接效应	空间溢出效应	总效应
农场主特征
性别	-0.131**（-2.072）	-0.058*（-1.703）	-0.189***（-3.169）
年龄	-0.132**（-2.375）	-0.046*（-1.682）	-0.178***（-2.699）
受教育程度	0.237***（3.429）	0.061* （1.737）	0.298*** （4.126）
风险偏好程度	0.118** （2.164）	0.055* （1.673）	0.173*** （2.895）
资源禀赋特征
劳动力数量	0.185***（2.691）	0.084* （1.709）	0.269*** （3.186）
经营耕地面积	0.042 （1.134）	0.009 （0.407）	0.051 （1.572）
资金状况	0.192***（2.874）	0.082* （1.723）	0.274*** （3.409）
心理认知特征
环保意识	0.145***（2.704）	0.063* （1.766）	0.208*** （3.474）
对有机农业的认知程度	0.184***（3.234）	0.062* （1.842）	0.246*** （3.208）
信息特征
参加培训	0.195***（3.137）	0.091* （1.774）	0.286*** （3.885）
从媒体获取信息程度	0.107** （2.184）	0.042* （1.834）	0.149*** （2.749）
市场信息获取程度	0.187***（3.073）	0.064* （1.713）	0.251*** （3.324）
认识已采纳有机农业农场主	0.123** （2.431）	0.061* （1.788）	0.184*** （2.697）