外调水对京津冀水资源承载力影响研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.11.10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水资源短缺与水环境恶化已成为京津冀经济社会可持续发展的主要制约因素,水资源承载力评价是区域水资源合理配置的关键。本文从水资源系统对经济、社会系统的支撑角度出发,选取11个主要影响水资源承载力系统的因素作为评价指标,建立了基于水量、水质、水域、水流的水资源承载力评估方法,研究外调水对京津冀水资源承载力的影响。结果表明京津冀地区水资源承载力都属超载,天津、北京尤为严重。京津冀地区水资源承载的压力主要来自于水资源系统,水资源短缺是京津冀水资源承载力超载的主要因素,人均水资源量是影响区域水资源承载力的关键因子。外调水对改善京津冀水资源承载力具有一定贡献,尤其是对北京、天津的影响较为显著。在水资源短缺时期外调水的影响更为明显,在2000年特枯年,天津市引滦与引黄入津使得水资源承载力提高了13%。南水北调使得2015年北京、天津两地水资源承载力分别提高了5%。外调水对水资源承载力影响研究为京津冀水资源的合理利用提供了依据,对于实现水资源与经济社会的协调发展具有重要意义。

关键词: 水资源承载力, 京津冀, 外调水, 指标体系

Abstract:

The water resources shortage and water environment worsen have been becoming primary restraining factors to development of economy and society in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is the key to regional water reasonable utilization. In this paper, according to the view of development of economy and society is supported by water resources, the eleven factors which mainly effect water resources carrying capacity have been selected as assessment indexes. An evaluation approach of research the effect on water resources carrying capacity by water transfer based on water quantity, water quality, water area and water flow has been established. The results indicate that the water carrying capacity are belong overloaded in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, especially in Tianjin and Beijing. The carrying press is mostly from water resources system, the water shortage is the major reason of water carrying capacity overloading in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the per capita water resources is the key factor to regional water carrying capacity. The water transfer is certainly important to improve water carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, especially for Beijing and Tianjin. In drought period, the results of improve water carrying capacity by water transfer is more evident, for example the water resources carrying capacity had been improved 13% in Tianjin through water transfer from Luan River and Yellow River to Tianjin in 2000, when is very dry year. The south water to north make water carrying capacity improve 5% in Beijing and Tianjin, respectively. It supply an foundation for water resources reasonable utilization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to research of effect on water resources carrying capacity by water transfer, and it is also important to realize the harmony among water resources, economy and society in region.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, water transfer, index system

韩雁, 张士锋, 吕爱锋. 外调水对京津冀水资源承载力影响研究[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(11): 2236-2247.

Yan HAN, Shifeng ZHANG, Aifeng LV. Research of effect on water resources carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by water transfer[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(11): 2236-2247.

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准则层权重	指标层	指标相对准则层权重	指标相对目标层权重
水资源系统0.647	人均水资源量	0.508	0.329
	产水模数	0.027	0.018
	水资源开发利用率	0.130	0.084
	水体水质（功能区各类水质比例）	0.150	0.097
	水域面积率	0.060	0.039
	库径比指数	0.125	0.081
经济系统0.099	人均GDP	0.833	0.082
经济系统0.099	第三产业比重	0.167	0.016
社会系统0.254	人口密度	0.595	0.151
	城市化率	0.347	0.088
	建成区面积比重	0.058	0.015

指标/单位	严重超载	超载	承载	低载
人均水资源量/（m³/人）	101	499	1 033	2 112
产水模数/（万m³/km²）	5	11	23	51
水资源开发利用率/%	119	100	78	39
水体水质（功能区各类水质比例）/%	劣五类	五类	三类、四类	一类、二类
水域面积率/%	0	2	3	5
库径比指数	3	2	1.5	0.5
人均GDP/（万元/人）	2	5	8	10
第三产业比重/%	31	45	60	75
人口密度/（人/km²）	1 012	791	360	189
城市化率/%	81	69	51	27
建成区面积比重/%	10	7	4	1

子系统	水平年	严重超载	超载	承载	低载
水资源	2000	0.761	0.053	0.116	0.070
	2010	0.755	0.063	0.092	0.090
	2015	0.711	0.095	0.125	0.069
经济	2000	0.745	0.089	0.113	0.053
	2010	0.000	0.224	0.609	0.167
	2015	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
社会	2000	0.354	0.588	0.038	0.020
	2010	0.966	0.034	0.000	0.000
	2015	0.972	0.028	0.000	0.000

子系统	水平年	严重超载	超载	承载	低载
水资源	2000	0.662	0.061	0.217	0.060
	2010	0.759	0.022	0.096	0.123
	2015	0.705	0.081	0.120	0.094
经济	2000	0.835	0.165	0.000	0.000
	2010	0.000	0.405	0.595	0.000
	2015	0.000	0.087	0.080	0.833
社会	2000	0.213	0.729	0.043	0.015
	2010	0.902	0.074	0.024	0.000
	2015	0.950	0.050	0.000	0.000

子系统	水平年	严重超载	超载	承载	低载
水资源	2000	0.578	0.256	0.136	0.030
	2010	0.590	0.323	0.046	0.041
	2015	0.709	0.209	0.035	0.047
经济	2000	0.967	0.033	0.000	0.000
	2010	0.722	0.278	0.000	0.000
	2015	0.331	0.669	0.000	0.000
社会	2000	0.000	0.000	0.573	0.427
	2010	0.000	0.029	0.819	0.152
	2015	0.000	0.052	0.891	0.057