资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (11): 2202-2212.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.11.07

• 土地资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国土地流转价格时空演化与宏观机制研究

杜挺1,2(), 朱道林1,2()   

  1. 1. 中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京 100193
    2. 国土资源部农用地质量与监控重点实验室,北京 100193
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-02 修回日期:2018-08-22 出版日期:2018-11-20 发布日期:2018-11-12
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:杜挺,男,四川江安人,博士生,主要从事土地经济与土地政策研究。E-mail: duting2019@cau.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国土资源部专项研究项目(20170205)

Studies on the spatio-temporal evolution and macro-mechanism of land circulation price in China

Ting DU1,2(), Daolin ZHU1,2()   

  1. 1. College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Land Quality, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100193, China
  • Received:2018-05-02 Revised:2018-08-22 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-12

摘要:

虽然近年来有关土地流转的研究频繁见诸报端,但至今对中国土地流转价格的基本情况仍缺少总体判断。为此,本文以2009年和2017年2期省域层面的土地流转价格数据为基础,采用ESDA方法和空间计量模型,开展了全国土地流转价格时空演化及宏观分化机制的分析。研究结果表明:2017年土地流转价格较2009年整体上涨,但各省域之间的增幅不均衡,东部发达地区和粮食主产区的叠加区增幅较大,而东南沿海和西北腹地增幅较缓,京沪地区基本持平;土地流转价格在全国尺度上呈现出“东西向递减,南北向U型”的分布格局;土地流转价格在省域之间呈现出显著的“HH-LL”聚类结构,且随着土地流转市场的发展,外溢作用进一步加强;宏观机制分析发现,中国省域间的土地流转价格分化主要受区位经济因素影响,随着土地流转市场的发育,自然因素的作用在减小,而区位经济因素和人地资源禀赋因素的影响则进一步增强。基于研究结果,本文建议,应遵循中国土地流转价格空间分化规律,避免盲目的价格攀比,并适时调控流转价格,抑制土地过度资本化。

关键词: 土地流转价格, 耕地, 时空演化, 耕地质量等别, 区位条件, 人地资源禀赋

Abstract:

In recent years, the studies of land circulation are frequently seen in research field, but, up to now, there is still no general judgement on the basic situation of land circulation price in China. Based on the land circulation price data at the provincial level of 2009 and 2017, this paper adopts ESDA method and space econometric model to carry out the analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution and macro differentiation mechanism of land circulation price in China. The results show that land circulation price overall rose 33.28% between 2009 and 2017, but the growth rates were uneven among provinces. In general, the superposition area of the eastern developed regions and the main grain producing areas increased greatly, while the southeast coastal areas and the northwest hinterland increased slowly. Besides, the land circulation price was decreasing from east to west, and presented inverted u-shaped structure from north to south. Moreover, Land circulation price showed a significant "HH-LL" clustering structure among provinces, and with the development of land circulation market, the spillover effect is further strengthened. Finally, spatial econometric analysis shows that the differentiation of land circulation price among provinces in China is mainly affected by regional economic factors. With the development of land circulation market, the role of natural factors is decreasing, while the influence of regional economic factors and cultivated land resources endowment is further strengthened. Based on this study, this paper suggests that we should follow the objective law of spatial differentiation of land circulation price in China, avoid blind price comparison, timely regulate the land circulation price and restrain excessive capitalization of cultivated land.

Key words: land circulation price, cultivated land, spatio-temporal evolution, the gradation of the cultivated land, locational conditions, cultivated land resources endowment