资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (11): 2143-2153.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.11.01

• 专栏:中蒙俄经济走廊资源研究 •    下一篇

中俄天然气贸易安全格局与态势

李泽红1,2(), 李静楠1,2, 杨洋1,2, VladimirA.Kolosov3,4, 任扬1,2(), TcogtoBazarzhapov1,2, 陈枫1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
    3. 俄罗斯科学院地理研究所,莫斯科 119991,俄罗斯
    4. 莫斯科大学地理学系,莫斯科 119991,俄罗斯
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-23 修回日期:2018-10-03 出版日期:2018-11-20 发布日期:2018-11-12
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:李泽红,男,湖北天门人,博士,副研究员,主要从事资源经济与区域生态经济研究。E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家科技基础资源调查专项 (2017FY101300 、2017FY101302);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项A类项目(XDA20030201)

Sino-Russian natural gas trade security structure and situation

Zehong LI1,2(), Jingnan LI1,2, Yang YANG1,2, A. Kolosov Vladimir3,4, Yang REN1,2(), Bazarzhapov Tcogto1,2, Feng CHEN1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 119991, Russia
    4. Faculty of Geography, Lomonsov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia
  • Received:2018-08-23 Revised:2018-10-03 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-12

摘要:

中俄天然气合作对两国天然气贸易安全具有重要影响。已有研究对于天然气贸易安全评价以定性分析为主,近年来越来越多的研究开始采用定量方法评价天然气贸易安全。本文基于HHI指数(赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数),构建了天然气进口和出口安全评价体系,科学评估了在不同因素影响下中俄天然气贸易安全格局与态势。研究表明:中国天然气进口多元化程度逐渐提升,从俄罗斯进口天然气比例呈上升趋势在均衡中国天然气进口来源、降低中国天然气进口风险总体具有积极作用;俄罗斯逐渐增加的天然气出口潜力对于提升中国进口安全产生正向作用;价格因素对中国天然气贸易安全影响显著;俄罗斯出口中国的天然气占俄罗斯天然气出口总量的比例提升在一定程度上对俄罗斯天然气出口安全产生积极影响;中国不断增加的天然气进口潜力带来的正效应相对抵消了俄罗斯主要天然气出口国天然气需求下降带来的负效应;近年来天然气价格下跌,对俄罗斯天然气出口安全产生明显负效应;未来几年,中俄天然气贸易量的急剧增加将使中国天然气进口集聚程度提升,应防范天然气进口风险上升。

关键词: 中俄天然气贸易安全, 进口风险, 出口风险, 格局, 态势

Abstract:

The cooperation of Sino-Russian natural gas has an important impact on the natural gas trade safety in both countries. In recent studies, the qualitative methods of natural gas trade safety have been the main focus. More and more researches have begun to use quantitative analysis methods to evaluate natural gas safety. Based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, this study has established a natural gas import and export safety evaluation system, assessing the Sino-Russian natural gas trade safety structure and situation under the influence of different factors. The results show: The diversification of natural gas import in China has gradually increased. The rising trend in the proportion of natural gas imported from Russia did show a positive impact on balancing China’s natural gas import sources and reducing China’s natural gas import risk. The gradually increasing natural gas export potential of Russia plays a positive role on China’s import safety. The price did exhibit a significant impact on China’s natural gas trade safety. The proportion of Russia’s natural gas exported to China has an impact on the export safety of Russia natural gas to a certain extent. The positive impact of China’s increasing natural gas import potential offsets the negative impact of the drop in natural gas demand of Russia’s major natural gas export countries. The drop in natural gas prices in recent years has a significant negative impact on the Russian natural gas export safety. In the next few years, the sharp increase in Sino-Russian natural gas trade volume will enhance the import concentration of China. Therefore, we should guard against the rising natural gas import risk.

Key words: Sino-Russian natural gas trade security, import risk, export risk, structure, situation