中国国际贸易海运CO2排放特征及驱动因素研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.10.20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来中国国际贸易海运量持续增长,海运CO₂排放量显著增加,海运业碳减排问题受到社会各界的广泛关注。本文基于2001—2016年的中国海运量数据,运用IPCC清单中“自下向上”的方法,按照实际货物运输类别将海运细分成液体散货运输、干散货运输、集装箱运输三种方式,分别按船型核算以中国为始发地或目的地的国际贸易海运产生的CO₂排放,并对CO₂排放总量进行时序特征分析;应用LMDI模型对中国国际贸易海运CO₂排放的驱动因素进行分解分析。研究结果表明：① 2001—2016年间,中国国际贸易海运CO₂排放的演进经历了三个阶段,总体呈显著增加趋势;② 人均GDP和人口始终是加剧CO₂排放的因素,其中人均GDP是CO₂排放增加的最大拉动因素,反映出中国国际贸易海运CO₂排放与经济发展密切相关;③ 能源强度因素抑制了海运CO₂排放增加,成为海运业未来强有力的碳减排驱动因素;降低海运强度有助于降低CO₂排放;④ 基于目前的经济社会发展态势,在没有出台新的针对性政策的情景下,未来一段时间内中国国际贸易海运CO₂将会保持增长。研究结果可对中国制定海运领域碳减排政策提供参考。

关键词: 国际贸易, 海运, LMDI法, CO₂减排, 政策建议, 中国

Abstract:

A bottom-up approach provided by IPCC was developed for calculating the CO₂ emissions from China's international seaborne trade sector during the period of 2001—2016. Based on the freight transport volume and considering the various commodities, shipping modes can be categorized into liquid bulk shipping, dry bulk shipping, and containers. The specified CO₂ emissions were estimated referring to the considered shipping modes. The aggregated CO₂ emissions were characterized to figure out the features during the study period. The decomposition analysis adopting Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method was introduced to investigate the key influencing factors that initiated an impact on the CO₂ emission changes in the China's international maritime activities. The results demonstrated that ①. The CO₂ emissions from China's international seaborne trade witnessed a significant increase between 2001 and 2016. The short-term evolution trend did exhibit three different stages. ② The factors of per capita GDP and population size were proved to be the positive contributors all the time. The per capita GDP was served as the major force, which reflected the close correlation between the CO₂emissions and the economic development. ③ Energy intensity of vessels generated CO₂ emissions during the study period and it had become the most powerful driving factor for the future CO₂ emissions reduction in maritime transportation sector. The reduction of the marine transportation intensity appeared to be another inhibiting factor that contributed to the mitigation of the CO₂ emissions. And ④ Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario without launching the new policies, CO₂ emissions from China's international maritime transportation will keep on as an increase trend in the future. It is desirable for policy makers to develop future mitigation policies according to this work.

Key words: international trade, maritime transportation, LMDI, CO₂ emissions mitigation, policy implications, China

马雪菲, 杨华龙, 邢玉伟. 中国国际贸易海运CO₂排放特征及驱动因素研究[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(10): 2132-2142.

Xuefei MA, Hualong YANG, Yuwei XING. Study on characteristics and driving factors of CO₂ emissions from China's international maritime transportation sector[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(10): 2132-2142.

图/表 9

表1

LMDI分解的两种特殊情形"

	$T S i t T S i 0$	$△ C ti, i$	$△ C rg, i$	$△ C p, i$	$△ C ts, i$	$△ C ei, i$
情形1	0	0	0	0	$C i t - C i 0 / 2$	$C i t - C i 0 / 2$
情形2	+	0	0	0	0	$C i t - C i 0$

表1

图1

图2

图3

表2

2001—2016年各因素对CO2变化的累计效应及贡献率"

	$Δ C ei$	$Δ C ts$	$Δ C ti$	$Δ C rg$	$Δ C p$	$Δ C tot$
CO₂累计变化/万t	-1 408.21	-1 065.08	938.97	11 914.70	855.25	11 235.64
CO₂累计变化贡献率/%	-12.6	-9.4	8.4	106	7.6	100

表2

图4

图5

表3

2001—2016年货类结构变化对CO2排放的贡献"

年份	$Δ C ts$	$Δ C ts 1$	$Δ C ts 2$	$Δ C ts 3$
2001—2002	44.41	-14.65	-11.82	70.88
2002—2003	91.92	65.95	-49.06	75.03
2003—2004	84.03	50.30	-51.21	84.94
2004—2005	-23.43	-143.37	54.20	65.74
2005—2006	-44.45	-80.41	42.51	-6.55
2006—2007	33.68	-99.84	21.23	112.29
2007—2008	67.92	97.12	-58.09	28.89
2008—2009	-620.42	-89.60	258.61	-789.43
2009—2010	51.87	73.56	-44.61	22.92
2010—2011	-134.70	-120.04	93.01	-107.67
2011—2012	-170.43	-57.59	83.91	-196.74
2012—2013	-171.58	-105.62	103.07	-169.03
2013—2014	-262.32	-18.84	103.42	-346.90
2014—2015	186.00	164.33	-135.08	156.74
2015—2016	-197.84	233.05	-23.45	-407.44
2001—2016	-1 065.08	-45.65	386.89	-1 406.32

表3

图6

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中国国际贸易海运CO₂排放特征及驱动因素研究

Study on characteristics and driving factors of CO₂ emissions from China's international maritime transportation sector

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