资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (10): 2132-2142.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.10.20
• • 上一篇
收稿日期:
2018-01-04
修回日期:
2018-02-09
出版日期:
2018-10-25
发布日期:
2018-10-20
作者简介:
作者简介:马雪菲, 女,辽宁鞍山人,博士生, 主要研究方向为航运碳排放问题研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Xuefei MA1(), Hualong YANG1,2(
), Yuwei XING1
Received:
2018-01-04
Revised:
2018-02-09
Online:
2018-10-25
Published:
2018-10-20
摘要:
近年来中国国际贸易海运量持续增长,海运CO2排放量显著增加,海运业碳减排问题受到社会各界的广泛关注。本文基于2001—2016年的中国海运量数据,运用IPCC清单中“自下向上”的方法,按照实际货物运输类别将海运细分成液体散货运输、干散货运输、集装箱运输三种方式,分别按船型核算以中国为始发地或目的地的国际贸易海运产生的CO2排放,并对CO2排放总量进行时序特征分析;应用LMDI模型对中国国际贸易海运CO2排放的驱动因素进行分解分析。研究结果表明:① 2001—2016年间,中国国际贸易海运CO2排放的演进经历了三个阶段,总体呈显著增加趋势;② 人均GDP和人口始终是加剧CO2排放的因素,其中人均GDP是CO2排放增加的最大拉动因素,反映出中国国际贸易海运CO2排放与经济发展密切相关;③ 能源强度因素抑制了海运CO2排放增加,成为海运业未来强有力的碳减排驱动因素;降低海运强度有助于降低CO2排放;④ 基于目前的经济社会发展态势,在没有出台新的针对性政策的情景下,未来一段时间内中国国际贸易海运CO2将会保持增长。研究结果可对中国制定海运领域碳减排政策提供参考。
马雪菲, 杨华龙, 邢玉伟. 中国国际贸易海运CO2排放特征及驱动因素研究[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(10): 2132-2142.
Xuefei MA, Hualong YANG, Yuwei XING. Study on characteristics and driving factors of CO2 emissions from China's international maritime transportation sector[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(10): 2132-2142.
表3
2001—2016年货类结构变化对CO2排放的贡献"
年份 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
2001—2002 | 44.41 | -14.65 | -11.82 | 70.88 |
2002—2003 | 91.92 | 65.95 | -49.06 | 75.03 |
2003—2004 | 84.03 | 50.30 | -51.21 | 84.94 |
2004—2005 | -23.43 | -143.37 | 54.20 | 65.74 |
2005—2006 | -44.45 | -80.41 | 42.51 | -6.55 |
2006—2007 | 33.68 | -99.84 | 21.23 | 112.29 |
2007—2008 | 67.92 | 97.12 | -58.09 | 28.89 |
2008—2009 | -620.42 | -89.60 | 258.61 | -789.43 |
2009—2010 | 51.87 | 73.56 | -44.61 | 22.92 |
2010—2011 | -134.70 | -120.04 | 93.01 | -107.67 |
2011—2012 | -170.43 | -57.59 | 83.91 | -196.74 |
2012—2013 | -171.58 | -105.62 | 103.07 | -169.03 |
2013—2014 | -262.32 | -18.84 | 103.42 | -346.90 |
2014—2015 | 186.00 | 164.33 | -135.08 | 156.74 |
2015—2016 | -197.84 | 233.05 | -23.45 | -407.44 |
2001—2016 | -1 065.08 | -45.65 | 386.89 | -1 406.32 |
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