农户农地转出意愿与转出行为的差异分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.10.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于改进的计划行为理论,结合安徽省郎溪县实地调查数据,实证分析农地流转过程中农户农地转出意愿与转出行为的差异及其原因,以期为促进农地有序流转,提高农地流转效率提供参考。研究结果表明：①农户农地转出意愿是理想状态下的选择,主要受行为态度、主观规范和知觉控制影响;而转出行为是现实状态下的决定,主要受行为态度和知觉控制影响;②农地流转后转入户毁约弃耕、承包地被过度利用或撂荒等风险严重阻滞了农户农地转出意愿向转出行为顺利转化,是导致意愿与行为相悖离的关键因素。因此,要想切实提高农地流转效率,必须为年龄偏大的农户提供就业培训,为其增加稳定的非农就业机会;加强农地流转相关政策的宣传和引导,增强农户流转意识;慎重对待农地流转可能带来的各类隐性风险,严防毁约弃耕、不合理的土地利用行为以及大规模囤地、撂荒等现象的发生。

关键词: 农地转出意愿, 农地转出行为, 计划行为理论, 风险预期, 安徽省郎溪县

Abstract:

Since the reform and opening-up, China's rural land system reform has transformed farmers from a simple “laborer” to a dual identity of “producer” and “operator”, which greatly mobilizes the enthusiasm of farmers for production and improving the efficiency of agricultural operations. However, with the rapid advancement of China's agricultural modernization process, under the background of the household contract responsibility system, the defects of small-scale operation, small division of land, and low efficiency of resource allocation have begun to become prominent. Farmland transfer has emerged as an effective way to solve the problem of land fragmentation, scale operation, and efficiency of resource allocation. The aim of this study was to provide a reference for improving the efficiency of farmland transfer. Based on the improved planning behavior theory, coupled with the survey data of Langxi in Anhui Province, the current study characterized the differences between farmers' intention for farmland transfer and their transfer behavior. The results showed that: ① The farmers' intention for farmland transfer was an ideal choice, which was mainly influenced by behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and perceptual control. The transfer behavior was a decision in the actual state, which was mainly influenced by behavioral attitude and perception control. ② The risk was the key factor that led to the separation of intention and behavior. These risks include destroy the farmland, overuse the farmland, and waste the farmland. Therefore, if we want to effectively improve the efficiency of farmland transfer, we should provide an employment training for older farmers and increase their non-agricultural employment opportunities; strengthen the promotion and guidance of relevant policies and increase farmers' awareness of circulation; take care farmland transfer risks, prevent the destroy, waste of farmland, and unreasonable land use behaviors.

Key words: farmland transfer intention, farmland transfer behavior, theory of planned behavior, risk expectation, Langxi in Anhui Province

陈振, 郭杰, 欧名豪. 农户农地转出意愿与转出行为的差异分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(10): 2039-2047.

Zhen CHEN, Jie GUO, Minghao OU. Characterization of the differences between farmers' intentionfor farmland transfer and their circulation behavior[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(10): 2039-2047.

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项目	选项	频数	频率/%	项目	选项	频数	频率/%
性别	男	263	64.78	非农劳动力人数/人	≤2	216	53.20
性别	女	143	35.22		3	117	28.82
年龄/岁	≤30	33	8.13		4	48	11.82
	31~40	56	13.79	≥5		25	6.16
	41~50	98	24.14	家庭年收入/万元	≤3	53	13.05
	51~60	145	35.71		3~5	79	19.46
	>60	74	18.23		5~8	166	40.89
受教育程度	未上学	56	13.79		8~12	66	16.26
	小学	105	25.86	>12		42	10.34
	初中	148	36.45	是否愿意转出承包地	不愿意	108	26.60
	高中	88	21.67	是否愿意转出承包地	愿意	298	73.40
	大学及以上	9	2.23	是否已经转出承包地	否	212	52.22
职业	务农	153	37.68	是否已经转出承包地	是	194	47.78
	兼业	194	47.78
	非农就业	59	14.54

变量名称	变量代码	变量定义	均值	标准差
被解释变量
转出意愿	Y₁	不愿意=1,愿意=2	1.73	0.44
转出行为	Y₂	未转出=1,已经转出=2	1.48	0.50
解释变量
1.行为态度
流转收益可观	BA₁	完全不同意=1,不同意=2,不确定=3,同意=4,完全同意=5	4.16	0.68
流转有利于发展规模农业	BA₂		3.12	0.63
流转有益于壮大集体经济	BA₃		3.27	0.79
2.主观规范
流转行为受家人和亲戚影响程度	SN₁	无影响=1,影响很小=2,不确定=3,有影响=4,影响非常大=5	3.65	0.81
流转行为受政府和村委会影响程度	SN₂		3.39	0.67
流转行为受邻居和朋友影响程度	SN₃		3.51	0.84
3.知觉控制
年龄大了,促使流转	PC₁	完全不同意=1,不同意=2,不确定=3,同意=4,完全同意=5	4.07	0.55
家庭劳动力短缺,促使流转	PC₂		3.93	0.77
非农就业机会多,促使流转	PC₃		3.87	0.74
流转政策很熟悉,促使流转	PC₄		3.44	0.62
4.风险预期
是否担心转入户毁约弃耕	RE₁	完全不担心=1,有点担心=2,一般=3,担心=4,十分担心=5	4.21	0.75
是否担心合同结束后无法收回承包地	RE₂		3.19	0.71
是否担心流转后养老没有保障	RE₃		3.06	0.51
是否担心承包地被过度利用	RE₄		4.17	0.66
是否担心承包地被撂荒	RE₅		3.94	0.69

变量名称	变量代码	意愿模型（n=406）			行为模型（n=298）
变量名称	变量代码	系数	显著性	优势比	系数	显著性	优势比
1.行为态度
流转收益可观	BA₁	1.238***	0.009	2.198	0.747**	0.029	1. 839
2.主观规范
流转受政府和村委会影响程度	SN₂	0.552*	0.092	1.115
3.知觉控制
年龄大了,促使流转	PC₁	0.873*	0.071	0.752	1.452**	0.025	0.985
家庭劳动力短缺,促使流转	PC₂	0.274**	0.047	0.579	0.311*	0.057	1.137
非农就业机会多,促使流转	PC₃				0.697*	0.063	0.674
流转政策很熟悉,促使流转	PC₄				1.157 **	0.039	2.428
4.风险预期
是否担心转入户毁约弃耕	RE₁				-0.641***	0.008	3.216
是否担心承包地被过度利用	RE₄				-0.764**	0.039	1.622
是否担心承包地被撂荒	RE₅				-0.272*	0.084	0.967
-2 log likelihood		124.672			235.421
H-L Tests		Sig.=0.252			Sig.=0.318
Model Chi-Square		6.569			11.642
模型预测准确率/%		87.240			91.120