基于要素供容视角的江苏省资源环境承载力评价

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.10.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当前资源环境承载力评价过程中对资源环境功能协调、层次有序和动态反馈考虑不足。本文基于要素供容视角,分别从资源要素的使用强度、保障程度和潜力提升程度,环境污染现状规模、污染物变化率和污染物治理能力,建立了一套资源环境承载力的评价指标体系,采用资源供需平衡法和环境容量法来衡量资源环境要素的承载指数,并对江苏省资源环境承载力进行全面评价,并对资源环境要素间的协调发展度进行测度和分析。研究结果显示：① 就资源承载指数而言：江苏省耕地承载指数为0.99,农村和城镇建设用地承载指数分别为1.22和1.96,水资源承载指数为1.24,资源综合承载力为1.25,资源人口承载力范围为7652.6万~11 578.9万人;② 就环境承载力指数而言,江苏省土壤、大气和水环境承载指数分别为1.27、2.68和5.20,环境综合承载力为2.95;③ 就协调发展度而言,各资源和环境要素间的协调度均值都高于0.86,协调发展度均值也都高于7.3,但也存在个别地区的个别要素间处于非协调发展状态。最后基于研究结论,从资源性、结构性和技术性等方面提出了相关措施。本文评价思路和方法以可持续发展的动态理念为基础,恰好契合当前供给侧改革的功能协调、层次有序和动态反馈土地利用规划目标,具一定参考价值。

关键词: 资源环境承载力, 要素供容, 国土资源, 江苏省

Abstract:

Currently research pays little attention on function coordination, structure order and dynamic feedback during evaluating the carrying capacity of resources and environment (CCRE). This paper based on the perspective of factor supply, establishes a CCRE‘s evaluation system which includes the development and utilization intensity, scale guarantee and potential improvement of resource factors, the pollution scale, pollution rate and pollution control capacity of environmental factors. We use resource supply and demand balance method as well as environmental capacity method to measure the carrying capacity index. Through carrying out the empirical analysis by Jiangsu Province, measuring and analyzing the degree of coordination development between resources and environment elements. We find that, (1) in terms of resources carrying capacity index, the cultivated land carrying capacity is 0.99, the rural and urban construction land is 1.22 and 1.96 respectively, the water resource is 1.24, the resource comprehensive carrying capacity is 1.25, and the population carrying capacity of resources ranges from 76.53 to 115.79 million people. (2) in terms of environmental carrying capacity index, from low to high is the soil environmental carrying index, atmospheric environmental carrying index and water environmental carrying index, the carrying index is 1.27, 2.68 and 5.20 respectively, and the environmental comprehensive carrying capacity is 2.95. (3) in terms of coordinated development, the average degree of coordination between resources and environmental factors is higher than 0.86, and the average degree of coordinated development is also higher than 7.3, however, there are also uncoordinated developments between individual elements in individual regions. We give suggestions from the aspects of resources, structure and technology based on the conclusion. Based on the dynamic concept of sustainable development, the idea and method of this research have a certain reference value, which conveying functional coordination, structure order, and dynamic feedback of land use planning objectives under the background of current supply-side reforms.

Key words: resource environmental carrying capacity, the factor supply perspective, land and resources, Jiangsu Province

许明军, 冯淑怡, 苏敏, 樊鹏飞, 王博. 基于要素供容视角的江苏省资源环境承载力评价[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(10): 1991-2001.

Mingjun XU, Shuyi FENG, Min SU, Pengfei FAN, Bo WANG. The evaluation of resource environmental carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province on the factor supply perspective[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(10): 1991-2001.

图/表 5

图1

表1

资源环境承载力评价指标体系"

目标层	准则层	指数层	承载内涵	具体可选指标/单位
资源承载力	土地资源承载力	农业生产空间承载指数	使用强度：耕地粮食播种面积保障程度：人均耕地面积潜力提升：耕地开发潜力修正	耕地粮食播种面积/hm²
				人均耕地面积/hm²
				耕地资源开发潜力规模/hm²
		农村生活空间承载指数	使用强度：农村建设用地使用强度保障程度：人均农村住房面积潜力提升：农村建设用地开发潜力修正	农村建设用地容积率/%
				人均农村住房面积/m²
				农村建设用地开发潜力规模/hm²
		城镇建设空间承载指数	使用强度：城镇建设用地使用强度保障程度：人均城镇住房面积潜力提升：城镇建设用地开发潜力修正	城镇建设用地容积率/%
				人均城镇住房面积/m²
				城镇建设用地开发潜力规模/hm²
	水资源承载力	水资源承载指数	使用强度：水资源开发利用强度保障程度：人均用水量潜力提升：水资源利用潜力修正	水资源综合开发利用系数/%
				人均用水量/m³
				多年水资源利用变化率/%
环境承载力	土壤环境承载力	土壤环境承载指数	水土流失现状：水土流失模数规模变化：水土流失模数变化率潜力提升：土壤生态治理潜力修正	水土流失模数/t
				水土流失模数年变化率/%
				水土流失生态修复比/%
	大气环境承载力	大气环境承载指数	污染现状：大气环境污染物排放量规模变化：大气污染物变化率潜力提升：大气污染物治理潜力修正	大气污染物实际排放量/t
				大气污染物排放年变化率/%
				大气环境污染物治理减少量/t
	水环境承载力	水环境承载指数	污染现状：水环境污染物排放量规模变化：水环境污染物变化率潜力提升：水环境污染物治理潜力修正	水体污染物实际排放量/t
				水环境污染物排放年变化率/%
				水环境污染物治理减少量/t

表1

图2

表2

图3

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	南京	无锡	徐州	常州	苏州	南通	连云港	淮安	盐城	扬州	镇江	泰州	宿迁
C1	0.65	0.63	0.98	0.93	0.75	0.99	0.99	1.00	0.99	1.00	0.95	1.00	1.00
D1	5.48	5.02	7.65	7.29	5.46	7.81	8.31	9.58	9.13	9.05	8.76	8.64	8.90
C2	0.60	0.47	0.99	0.83	0.55	0.94	0.97	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.95	1.00	0.94
D2	5.55	5.20	6.89	7.68	5.76	8.37	7.93	9.69	9.73	9.37	8.81	8.68	7.69
C3	0.90	0.67	0.99	0.95	0.59	0.96	0.93	0.90	0.96	0.99	0.91	0.99	0.99
D3	4.97	4.97	6.83	7.15	5.71	8.15	7.52	7.90	8.50	8.57	6.65	9.01	9.26
C4	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.99	0.94	0.98	0.98	1.00	0.99	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
D4	9.04	8.66	8.75	8.90	8.59	8.74	8.43	9.63	9.14	9.23	9.78	8.92	8.99
C5	1.00	1.00	0.88	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.95	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.93
D5	9.36	9.70	7.66	9.65	9.93	9.54	8.03	9.74	9.74	9.57	9.84	8.96	7.74
C6	0.52	0.92	0.94	0.86	0.84	0.98	0.99	0.99	1.00	1.00	0.96	1.00	1.00
D6	5.26	7.97	8.22	7.38	7.64	8.80	8.55	9.28	9.50	9.21	8.68	9.02	9.14
C7	1.00	0.95	0.96	0.97	0.94	0.97	0.99	1.00	0.98	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.93
D7	8.90	8.87	7.26	9.17	8.64	8.85	7.58	9.67	9.35	9.30	9.93	8.69	7.73