资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (10): 1943-1953.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.10.04

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改进选择实验法在居民浒苔治理意愿评估中的应用

单菁竹1(), 李京梅1,2, 林雨霏3(), 王国善3   

  1. 1. 中国海洋大学经济学院,青岛 266100
    2. 中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,青岛 266100
    3. 国家海洋局海洋减灾中心,北京 100194
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-11 修回日期:2018-07-24 出版日期:2018-10-25 发布日期:2018-10-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:单菁竹,女,山东青岛人,博士生,主要研究方向为海洋经济与资源可持续利用。E-mail: oucshanjingzhu@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA049)

Application of the choice experiment to the evaluation of willingness to manage Enteromorpha prolifera disasters from the perspective of attribute cut-offs

Jingzhu SHAN1(), Jingmei LI1,2, Yufei LIN3(), Guoshan WANG3   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
    2. Institute of Marine Development, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
    3. National Marine Hazard Mitigation Service, Beijing 100194, China
  • Received:2018-01-11 Revised:2018-07-24 Online:2018-10-25 Published:2018-10-20

摘要:

选择实验法是通过问卷调查获取大量个体对资源环境属性状态选择集的偏好信息,评估资源环境非市场价值的前沿方法。受访者面对多种选择集的高信息负荷,由于认知水平受限,经常通过为物品属性设定可接受的最低/最高水平,即属性临界值,以简化决策过程,易造成模型估计结果的偏差。本文针对黄海胶州湾海域浒苔治理支付意愿,考虑属性临界值的存在及违反情况,设计引出属性临界值的选择实验问卷,建立修正选择模型,以青岛市实地调研的397个有效样本为数据来源,对居民浒苔治理意愿进行评估。研究结果表明:①属性临界值的存在及违反具有普遍性,忽略其存在及违反情况将导致估计结果的偏差;②将属性临界值存在及违反情况纳入效用方程,对传统选择实验分析框架进行修正,结果表明,经修正的选择模型的拟合度更优,能更好地解释受访者选择行为。在参数估计方面,浒苔治理恢复属性对居民效用水平显著正向影响,滨海景观、近海水质属性临界值的违反对居民效用水平显著负向影响;③青岛市居民对治理浒苔恢复滨海景观、改善近海水质、增加生物多样性和修复海洋生物资源的年支付意愿分别为90.68元、84.92元、49.34元、43.17元,2017年青岛市胶州湾海域浒苔治理总支付意愿为33.006亿元。与传统模型的对比表明,考虑属性临界值存在及违反情况的选择模型能更有效地反映受访者的实际边际效用,并在此基础上提高支付意愿估计结果的效度。

关键词: 属性临界值, 选择实验法, 浒苔治理, 支付意愿, 青岛

Abstract:

Choice experiment is an advanced method for evaluating non-market items by acquiring individual's preference information through a series of questionnaires. Faced with a large information load of selection sets, the respondents often use cut-offs to simplify the decision-making process, which may make the traditional model selection generating biased estimates. In order to assess residents’ preference and willingness to pay for the governance of the Enteromorpha prolifera in Qingdao, we designed the choice experiment including attribute cut-offs and incorporate attribute cutoffs into the random parameter logit model. Data for this study were collected from the field research in Qingdao. The results demonstrated that attribute cut-offs and their violation can be universal. The ignorance of this situation will make the estimates biased, which illustrates the essence to introduce cut-offs into the model. Comparisons between models with/without attribute cut-offs suggest that the use of cut-offs will significantly improve the goodness-of-fit of the model and better explain the respondents’ selection behavior. Results from estimation of models further indicate that each governance attribute has a positive impact on the level of utility and the attribute cutoffs of marine coastal landscape and coastal water quality have a negative impact on the level of utility. The willingness to pay for strengthen governance of the Enteromorpha prolifera to improve the coastal landscape is 90.68 CNY, the willingness to pay to improve coastal water quality is 84.92 CNY, the willingness to pay to improve marine biological resource is 43.17 CNY, and the willingness to pay to improve biodiversity is 49.34 CNY. The overall ecological damage cost is 3.3 billion CNY per year. Compared to the traditional model, the model with attribute cut-offs will better reflect the actual marginal utility and improve the validity of the estimate of willingness to pay.

Key words: attribute cut-offs, choice experiment, the governance of Enteromorpha prolifera, willingness to pay, Qingdao