资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (10): 1915-1930.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.10.02

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世界粮食供需与流动格局的演变特征

张进(), 王诺(), 卢毅可, 林婉妮   

  1. 大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,大连 116026
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-11 修回日期:2018-09-11 出版日期:2018-10-25 发布日期:2018-10-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:张进,男,四川资阳人,硕士生,研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。E-mail: zhangjindlmu@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家海洋软科学项目(JJYX201612-1)

The evolution characteristics of world grain supply-demand and flow pattern

Jin ZHANG(), Nuo WANG(), Yike LU, Wanni LIN   

  1. Transportation Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
  • Received:2018-01-11 Revised:2018-09-11 Online:2018-10-25 Published:2018-10-20

摘要:

基于1962—2016年的统计数据,采用复杂网络理论的基本概念对世界主要国家和地区粮食流动的空间网络形态进行了探讨。结果显示:1962—2016年,世界粮食产量增加了17.56亿t,年均增长2.09%,世界粮食消费量增加17.03亿t,年均增长2.07%;世界粮食输出量增加了3.45亿t,年均增长3.02%,其中美国、阿根廷和乌克兰等是主要输出地,中国、欧盟和日本等是主要输入地;在粮食贸易格局的演变趋势上,贸易网络的出度和入度均有所增加,表明世界粮食输出地与输入地的分布趋于分散化;粮食贸易主要国家和地区的节点强度和标准权重熵等特征值差异明显。研究发现:虽然美国粮食贸易的出度值最大,但是输出空间结构的均质性最弱,粮食出口国家十分集中,因而是其软肋;中国标准权重熵值较高,从各国进口粮食的比例相差相对较小,输入结构均质性较好,表明中国应对粮食危机和国际贸易争端的能力较强。本文研究成果揭示了世界粮食供需与流动格局的演变趋势,对于中国科学制定农业发展规划和粮食贸易政策,应对国际事态变化具有重要的借鉴价值。

关键词: 粮食, 供需, 流动, 格局, 演变

Abstract:

Based on the statistical data from 1962 to 2016, this study implemented the basic concepts of complex network theory to discuss the spatial network forms of grain flow in major countries and regions in the world. The results showed that: (1) For a half century, the world's grain production has increased by 1.756 billion tons with an average annual increase of 2.09%. The world's grain consumption has increased by 1.703 billion tons with an average annual increase of 2.07%. (2) The world's grain output has increased by 345 million tons with an average annual increase of 3.02%. Among them, the United States, Argentina, and Ukraine are the main exporters, and China, the EU, and Japan are the main importers. (3) On the trend of the pattern of grain trade, the out-degrees and in-degrees of trade networks both have increased, indicating that the distribution of the world's grain output and input tends to be decentralized. (4) There is a significant difference in the node intensity and standard weight entropy in major countries and regions of grain trade. (5) The study found that although the out-degrees value of the United States grain trade is the largest, the homogeneity of the output spatial structure is the weakest and the grain output countries are very concentrated. Therefore, it is the weakness of the United States in grain trade. (6) China's standard weight entropy is higher, the proportion of input grain from countries is relatively small, and the homogeneity of the input structure is better, indicating that China has a stronger ability to cope with grain crisis and international trade disputes. The findings of this study reveal the evolution trend of the world's grain supply-demand, and flow pattern. It will provide a solid important reference for China's scientific formulation of agricultural development plans, grain trade policies, and responding to international changes.

Key words: grain, supply-demand, flow, pattern, evolution