天山开都河流域积雪、径流变化及影响因子分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.09.15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文分析了开都河流域源流区积雪变化与气象要素及径流的变化趋势,讨论了气象-积雪-径流三者之间的关系。结果表明：开都河流域2000—2016年间积雪覆盖率呈微弱上升趋势（0.1%/10a）,其中,最大积雪覆盖率增加速率约为0.33%/a,而最小积雪覆盖率则呈减小趋势（-0.017%/a）;在年内表现为春、夏季节积雪面积减少,而秋、冬两季增加;在过去的45年间（1972—2016年）,融雪期在春季提前了约10.35天,而秋季延迟了约7.56天;温度对春季积雪变化影响较大,而降水则对冬季积雪变化影响较大。河川径流与径流峰值均呈增加趋势,年径流增幅约2.26亿m³/10a,其中夏季径流对气温（ε =1.41）和降水（ε =0.5）变化敏感,而春季对积雪面积的变化响应敏感（ε =0.59）。开都河流域山区温度升高和降水增加对径流的影响明显。

关键词: 积雪面积, 径流, 气候变化, 开都河

Abstract:

Water resources, a key factor, restricted economic and social development and ecological security in arid region of Northwest China. The water resources in arid area mainly come from snow melt water and mountain precipitation. Therefore, studies on the impact of climate on snow cover and runoff in arid region of Northwest China have a significant impact on the water resources management, ecological protection, and economic and social development. Based on MODIS data, the meteorological and hydrologic station data, the present investigation was conducted to analyze the trends of annual snow cover and streamflow variations in the Kaidu River and discuss the relationship between climate change, snow cover, and streamflow. We used Mann-Kendall test, Pearson correlational analysis method, and sensitivity analysis. We found that the total snow cover fraction showed a slightly increasing trend from 2000 to 2016 (-0.017%/a). The annual maximum snow cover increased but the annual minimum snow cover exhibited a decreasing trend. Seasonally, the snow cover decreased in spring and summer, increased in autumn and winter. In the past 45 years (1972-2016), the onset of snowmelt period documented a shift of 10.35 days earlier while ending date did move 7.56 days later. The correlation between snow cover and meteorological variables suggest that the snow cover was mostly affected by temperature in spring and was mostly influenced by precipitation in winter. Both the annual streamflow and peak streamflow exhibited an increasing trend from 2000 to 2016 in a speed of 226 million m³ per decade. The streamflow is sensitive to the variations of temperature and precipitation in summer, and to the variations of snow cover in spring. Increasing of temperature and precipitation is the primary factor leading the increasing of streamflow.

Key words: snow cover area, streamflow, climate change, Kaidu River

向燕芸, 陈亚宁, 张齐飞, 卞薇. 天山开都河流域积雪、径流变化及影响因子分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(9): 1855-1865.

Yanyun XIANG, Yaning CHEN, Qifei ZHANG, Wei BIAN. Trends of snow cover and streamflow variation in Kaidu River and their influential factors[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(9): 1855-1865.

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	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	年际
Z	0.12	-0.70	0.25	0.23	0.29
H₀	A	A	A	A	A

	气温		降水
	Z	H₀	Z	H₀
春季	0.41	A	0.12	A
夏季	0.59	A	0.29	A
秋季	-1.40	A	-0.70	A
冬季	-1.04	A	-0.29	A
全年	-0.04	A	0.37	A

季节	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
气温	-0.38	-0.22	0.13	0.04
降水	0.07	-0.08	0.04	0.06

	春季			夏季			秋季			冬季
	相关系数	敏感系数	贡献率	相关系数	敏感系数	贡献率	相关系数	敏感系数	贡献率	相关系数	敏感系数	贡献率
气温	0.60*	0.04	-3.17	0.19	1.41	6.20	0.19	-0.04	-1.26	0.37	-0.55	-6.51
降水	0.43	0.11	0.03	0.65**	0.50	3.97	-0.07	-0.02	0.73	-0.06	-0.02	0.25
积雪面积	0.48	0.59	-1.90	0.13	0.13	-5.18	-0.04	-0.30	-4.05	-0.19	-0.58	-0.75