资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 1855-1865.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.09.15
收稿日期:
2017-11-25
修回日期:
2018-06-28
出版日期:
2018-09-20
发布日期:
2018-09-14
作者简介:
作者简介:向燕芸,女,湖北宜昌人,硕士生,主要从事干旱区积雪水文研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Yanyun XIANG1,2(), Yaning CHEN2, Qifei ZHANG2,3, Wei BIAN2,3
Received:
2017-11-25
Revised:
2018-06-28
Online:
2018-09-20
Published:
2018-09-14
摘要:
本文分析了开都河流域源流区积雪变化与气象要素及径流的变化趋势,讨论了气象-积雪-径流三者之间的关系。结果表明:开都河流域2000—2016年间积雪覆盖率呈微弱上升趋势(0.1%/10a),其中,最大积雪覆盖率增加速率约为0.33%/a,而最小积雪覆盖率则呈减小趋势(-0.017%/a);在年内表现为春、夏季节积雪面积减少,而秋、冬两季增加;在过去的45年间(1972—2016年),融雪期在春季提前了约10.35天,而秋季延迟了约7.56天;温度对春季积雪变化影响较大,而降水则对冬季积雪变化影响较大。河川径流与径流峰值均呈增加趋势,年径流增幅约2.26亿m3/10a,其中夏季径流对气温(ε =1.41)和降水(ε =0.5)变化敏感,而春季对积雪面积的变化响应敏感(ε =0.59)。开都河流域山区温度升高和降水增加对径流的影响明显。
向燕芸, 陈亚宁, 张齐飞, 卞薇. 天山开都河流域积雪、径流变化及影响因子分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(9): 1855-1865.
Yanyun XIANG, Yaning CHEN, Qifei ZHANG, Wei BIAN. Trends of snow cover and streamflow variation in Kaidu River and their influential factors[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(9): 1855-1865.
表5
2000—2016年流量与各气象积雪要素关系"
春季 | 夏季 | 秋季 | 冬季 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
相关 系数 | 敏感 系数 | 贡献率 | 相关 系数 | 敏感 系数 | 贡献率 | 相关 系数 | 敏感 系数 | 贡献率 | 相关 系数 | 敏感 系数 | 贡献率 | ||||
气温 | 0.60* | 0.04 | -3.17 | 0.19 | 1.41 | 6.20 | 0.19 | -0.04 | -1.26 | 0.37 | -0.55 | -6.51 | |||
降水 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.65** | 0.50 | 3.97 | -0.07 | -0.02 | 0.73 | -0.06 | -0.02 | 0.25 | |||
积雪面积 | 0.48 | 0.59 | -1.90 | 0.13 | 0.13 | -5.18 | -0.04 | -0.30 | -4.05 | -0.19 | -0.58 | -0.75 |
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