资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 1831-1842.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.09.13

• 碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于IPAT-LMDI扩展模型的日本家庭碳排放因素分析及启示

胡振(), 何晶晶, 王玥   

  1. 西安建筑科技大学,西安710055
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-18 修回日期:2018-05-30 出版日期:2018-09-20 发布日期:2018-09-14
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:胡振,男,辽宁锦州人,博士,教授,主要研究方向为建筑运行能耗控制理论与方法。E-mail:huzhen@xauat.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(51578438)

Factor analysis and enlightenment of household carbon emissions in Japan based on IPAT-LMDI extension model

Zhen HU(), Jingjing HE, Yue WANG   

  1. Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an, 710055, China
  • Received:2017-09-18 Revised:2018-05-30 Online:2018-09-20 Published:2018-09-14

摘要:

日本是世界上城镇化水平较高的国家,其少子老龄化人口特征明显,资源相对匮乏,家庭崇尚低碳生活理念。中国已逐渐迈入快速城镇化、人口老龄化社会,人均资源占有量也并不高,因此,日本家庭碳排放的变化规律及相关经验对于中国节能减排对策的制定具有一定的参考价值。本文以日本2001—2011年数据为样本,基于IPAT-LMDI扩展模型,构建一个包括家庭规模、住宅利用率、经济发展水平、碳排放率、能源消费结构和能源消耗强度的日本家庭碳排放因素分解模型,并就各因素变动对日本户均碳排放的影响程度、日本户均碳排放对因素变动的敏感程度进行双向分析。结果表明,日本户均碳排放波动上升趋势是正向驱动因素和抑制因素共同作用的结果,其中碳排放率、能源消费结构和经济发展水平是正向驱动因素,能源消耗强度、家庭规模和住宅利用率是抑制因素;不同时期日本户均碳排放对抑制因素的敏感程度不同,总体来看对家庭规模的敏感程度较高,对经济发展水平的敏感程度较低。日本家庭碳排放的因素分析启示我们,在城市化的进程中应转变家庭能源控制视角,优化家庭能源结构,合理控制住宅增速、规模和节能标准,提高家庭低碳生活意识和水平。

关键词: 家庭碳排放, IPAT扩展模型, LMDI分解法, 弹性系数, 日本

Abstract:

Japan is a country with a higher level of urbanization in the world and its low birth rate and population aging characteristics are obvious. Due to lack of resources, Japanese families advocate low-carbon life concept. With the acceleration of urbanization, China is gradually entering an aging society and the per capita resources are insufficient. Therefore, the Japanese household carbon emissions laws and related experiences should have a certain valuable reference for the establishment of energy-saving emission reduction measures in China. Based on the data from 2001 to 2011 in Japan, this paper built a decomposition model of household carbon emission factors in Japan according to the IPAT-LMDI extension model, which included household size, housing utilization rate, economic development level, carbon emission rate, energy consumption structure, and energy consumption intensity. Thereafter, the impact of various factors on household carbon emissions in Japan and the sensitivity of Japan’s household carbon emissions to the major factors were further analyzed by two-way statistical approach. The results illustrated that the rising trend of household carbon emissions in Japan is the result of positive driving and inhibitory factors. The carbon emission rate, energy consumption structure, and economic development level are positive driving factors; energy consumption intensity, household size, housing utilization rate are the inhibitory factors. At different period, the sensitivity of household carbon emissions in Japan to different factors was varied in a large degree different. For example, the sensitivity to the household size was relatively higher; while to the economic development level was lower. Household carbon emissions analysis in Japan implies that we should change the perspective of family energy control in the process of urbanization, optimize the family energy structure, control residential growth, scale energy efficiency standards, and raise the awareness and level of low-carbon life.

Key words: household carbon emissions, IPAT extension model, LMDI decomposition method, elasticity coefficient, Japan