资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 1822-1830.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.09.12

• 碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于贝叶斯网络的控排企业林业碳汇需求机理与仿真研究

祁慧博(), 龙飞()   

  1. 浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州 311300
  • 收稿日期:2017-11-06 修回日期:2018-04-28 出版日期:2018-09-20 发布日期:2018-09-14
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:祁慧博,女,山西太原人,博士,副教授,主要从事资源环境经济与政策、森林碳汇经营管理研究。E-mail:huiboqi2005@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    浙江省自然科学基金青年项目(Q17G030042);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473230);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71803180)

Mechanism and simulation of carbon emission control enterprises’ forestry carbon sequestration demand based on Bayesian Network

Huibo QI(), Fei LONG()   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China
  • Received:2017-11-06 Revised:2018-04-28 Online:2018-09-20 Published:2018-09-14

摘要:

研究控排企业的林业碳汇需求,对于引导企业科学选择减排路径与有效发挥林业碳汇抵消企业碳排放的作用而言至关重要。以控排企业为对象,将其对林业碳汇抵消碳排放机制的认知与响应统一纳入贝叶斯网络,从而揭示控排企业林业碳汇需求机理,并从林业碳汇减排量、抵消比例、价格决定、风险承担等多个维度进行仿真。研究表明:林业碳汇需求是控排企业自身及环境因素复杂作用的动态过程;尽管在森林增汇与减排方面表现出较高的认知与认可,但面对当前充裕的碳配额及不明确的林业碳汇市场预期,控排企业期望林业碳汇占CCER的比例及购买林业碳汇的意愿并不高,且倾向于林业碳汇的价格由政府主导,而风险由交易双方共担。因此,激发林业碳汇需求须在掌握控排企业阶段性特征的基础上,通过碳交易制度创新,推进排放配额管理及林业碳汇融入国家碳排放权交易体系,同时稳定企业购买林业碳汇的收益预期。

关键词: 林业碳汇, 控排企业, 需求, 贝叶斯网络

Abstract:

To guide enterprises for a scientific identification the path of emission reduction and effectively plays an offset role of forestry carbon sequestration to the carbon emissions. It is vital to study the enterprises’ demand for forestry carbon sequestration. The carbon emission control enterprises, i. e., the cognition and response of forestry carbon sequestration carbon offset mechanism are integrated into a Bayesian network. The current study illustrated the mechanism of forestry carbon sequestration demand and simulated the multi-dimensions such as the emission reduction, offset ratio, price determination, and risk sharing of forestry carbon sequestration. The demand for forestry carbon sequestration is a dynamic process of the complicated action among the carbon emission control enterprises and the environmental factors. The carbon emission control enterprises did show a high recognition and accreditation of increasing carbon sink and reducing emission of forest. Confronted with the abundant carbon quota as well as the unclear expectation of forestry carbon sequestration, the expected proportion of forestry carbon sequestration to CCER and the willingness to buy forestry carbon sequestration are not high. And the prices of forestry carbon sequestration are inclined to be dominated by the government and the risks are expected to be shared by both trading parties. In order to stimulate the demand for forestry carbon sequestration, based on the stage characteristics of the carbon emission control enterprises, the government should promote the allocation of emission quotas and forestry carbon sequestration into the national carbon emissions trading system through the carbon trading system innovation, with stabilizing prospective earnings from purchasing of forestry carbon sequestration.

Key words: forestry carbon sequestration, carbon emission control enterprises, demand, Bayesian Network