中国小麦、玉米碳足迹历史动态及未来趋势

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.09.10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化是当今国际研究的热点问题,小麦、玉米是中国主要粮食作物,分析小麦、玉米生产碳足迹的时空动态和中国相关农业政策对小麦、玉米生产的温室气体减排的引导效果对于合理应对气候变化具有重要的意义。本研究基于生命周期评价法（LCA）对2005—2015年中国小麦、玉米生产碳足迹进行了核算,并在此基础上,根据种植业结构及化肥、农药调整政策模拟分析了不同玉米种植面积和不同单位面积化肥及农药施用量等4种情景下2020年小麦、玉米生产的温室气体排放和单位面积碳足迹。研究结果显示：2005—2015年小麦、玉米生产的单位面积碳足迹和温室气体排放量均呈现出显著增加的趋势（P < 0.05）;模拟分析结果表明：通过缩减种植面积,优化化肥、农药投入能够有效降低小麦、玉米生产的碳足迹,实现（168.89~ 560.07）亿kg CO₂-eq的减排潜力。因此建议构建科学施肥技术体系,提高农资投入品的利用效率,以实现中国的温室气体减排目标。

关键词: 小麦, 玉米, 农业政策, 碳足迹, 生命周期评价法

Abstract:

Risks for natural and human systems have been increasing during past decades due to global warming, which is one of the main consequences of the raising anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Agriculture is one of the principal contributors to anthropogenic GHGs emissions. And wheat and maize are major cereal crops in China. Thus, assessing the carbon footprint (CF) of wheat and maize, investing the adjustment of agricultural policies and the effects on reduction in GHGs emissions will help to establish a reasonable strategy to mitigate climate change. A systematical analysis of the carbon footprint (CF) of wheat and maize production is critical to develop low carbon agriculture and enhance carbon sequestration in China. CF of wheat and maize production during 2005-2015 was computed, which was based on the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). According to the completion of the relevant agricultural policy “National crop adjustment plan (2016-2020), ” “Fertilizer usage by 2020 zero increase action plan, ” and “Pesticides usage by 2020 zero increase action plan, ” a predicted CF of wheat and maize production in the near future five scenarios was established. The result showed a significant rising trend in CF and total greenhouse gases(GHGs) emissions for both wheat and maize production during 2005-2015 (P < 0.01). The CF of maize production was lower than wheat production. The growth rate of CF per unit area of wheat production was higher than that of maize, while the total GHGs emissions showed an opposite trend. Simulation on different scenarios indicated that all the projections in 2020 experienced a reduction on carbon emission for about (16.89~56.01) billion kg CO₂-eq. Therefore, strategies to balance crop production and agriculture inputs application are of great importance to achieve China’s 2020 GHGs emission targets.

Key words: wheat, maize, agricultural policy, carbon footprint, life cycle assessment

王钰乔, 濮超, 赵鑫, 王兴, 刘胜利, 张海林. 中国小麦、玉米碳足迹历史动态及未来趋势[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(9): 1800-1811.

Yuqiao WANG, Chao PU, Xin ZHAO, Xing WANG, Shengli LIU, Hailin ZHANG. Historical dynamics and future trends of carbon footprint of wheat and maize in China[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(9): 1800-1811.

图/表 8

表1

表2

图1

图2

图3

表3

图4

表4

参考文献 34

[1]	IPCC. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change[R].New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014.
[2]	Schmidhuber J, Tubiello F N.Global food security under climate change[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2007, 104(50): 19703-19708.
[3]	齐晔, 李惠民, 王晓. 农业与中国的低碳发展战略[J]. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(1): 1-6.
	[Qi Y, Li H M, Wang X.Agriculture and low-carbon development strategy in China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(1): 1-6. ]
[4]	中华人民共和国农业部. 全国种植业结构调整规划(2016-2020年)[EB/OL]. (2016-04-28)[2017-06-30]. .
	[Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China 2016. National Structural Adjustment Plan for Plant Industry (2016-2020) [EB/OL]. (2016-04-28)[2017-06-30]. . ]
[5]	中华人民共和国农业部. 到2020年化肥使用量零增长行动方案 [EB/OL]. (2015-03-18)[2017-06-30]. .
	[Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China. Pregame of Fertilizer Usage Zero Growth by 2020[EB/OL]. (2015-03-18)[2017-06-30]. . ]
[6]	中华人民共和国农业部. 到2020年农药使用量零增长行动方案 [EB/OL]. (2015-03-18)[2017-06-30]. .
	[Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China. Pregame of Pesticide Usage Zero Growth by 2020 [EB/OL]. (2015-03-18)[2017-06-30]. . ]
[7]	刘巽浩, 徐文修, 李增嘉, 等. 农田生态系统碳足迹法: 误区、改进与应用-兼析中国集约农作碳效率[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2013, 34(6): 1-11.
	[Liu X H, Xu W X, Li Z J, et al. The missteps, improvement and application of carbon footprint methodology in farmland ecosystems with the case study of analyzing the carbon efficiency of China’s intensive farming[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2013, 34(6): 1-11. ]
[8]	石敏俊, 王妍, 张卓颖, 等. 中国各省区碳足迹与碳排放空间转移[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(10): 1327-1338.
	[Shi M J, Wang Y, Zhang Z Y, et al. Regional carbon footprint and interregional transfer of carbon emissions in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(10): 1327-1338. ]
[9]	Wackernagel M.Ecological Footprints and Appropriated Carrying Capacity: A Tool for Planning toward Sustainability[D]. Vancouver: The University of British Columbia, 1994.
[10]	Lal R.Carbon emission from farm operations[J]. Environmental International, 2004, 30(7): 981-990.
[11]	王兴, 赵鑫, 王钰乔, 等. 中国水稻生产的碳足迹分析[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 713-722.
	[Wang X, Zhao X, Wang Y Q, et al. Assessment of the carbon footprint of rice production in China[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(4): 713-722. ]
[12]	Xue J F, Pu C, Liu S L, et al. Carbon and nitrogen footprint of double rice production in southern China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2016, 64: 249-257.
[13]	Gan Y T, Liang C, Chai Q, et al. Improving farming practices reduces the carbon footprint of spring wheat production[J]. Nature Communications, 2014, doi: 10. 1038/ncomms6012.
[14]	中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴2005-2015[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2005-2015.
	[National bureau of statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2005-2015. ]
[15]	国家发展和改革委员会价格司. 全国农产品成本资料收益汇编2005-2015[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2005-2015.
	[The Prices Division of National Development and Reform Commission. Data Compilation of the National Agricultural Costs and Returns[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2005-2015. ]
[16]	International Organization for Standardization (ISO).ISO/TS14067: 2013:Greenhouse Gases-Carbon Footprint of Products-Requirements and Guidelines for Quantification and Communication [EB/OL]. (2013-05-01)[2017-06-30]. .
[17]	田云, 张俊飚, 尹朝静, 等. 中国农业碳排放分布动态与趋势演进-基于31个省(市、区)2002-2011年的面板数据分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(7): 91-98.
	[Tian Y, Zhang J B, Yin C J, et al. Distributional dynamics and trend evolution of China’s agriculture carbon emissions-an analysis on panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2011[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(7): 91-98. ]
[18]	IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change2006: Synthesis Report[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006.
[19]	国家发展和改革委应对气候变化司. 低碳发展及省级温室气体清单培训教材[R]. 北京: 国家发展和改革委应对气候变化司, 2013.
	[National Development and Reform Commission on Climate Change.Low-Carbon Development and Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventory Training Materials[R]. Beijing: National Development and Reform Commission on Climate Change, 2013. ]
[20]	Ecoinvent Database [EB/OL]. (2011-05-11)[2016-06-30]. .
[21]	刘夏璐, 王洪涛, 陈建, 等. 中国生命周期参考数据库的的建立方法与基础模型[J]. 环境科学学报, 2010, 30(10): 2136-2144.
	[Liu X L, Wang H T, Chen J, et al. Method and basic model for development of Chinese reference life cycle database of fundamental industries[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiate, 2010, 30(10): 2136-2144. ]
[22]	Xu X M, Lan Y.Spatial and temporal patterns of carbon footprints of grain crops in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 146: 218-227.
[23]	刘钦普. 中国化肥施用强度及环境安全阈值时空变化[J]. 农业工程学报, 2017, 33(6): 214-221.
	[Liu Q P.Spatio-temporal changes of fertilization intensity and environmental safety threshold in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2017, 33(6): 214-221. ]
[24]	Cheng K, Yan M, Nayak D, et al. Carbon footprint of crop production in China: an analysis of National Statistics data[J]. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 2014, 153(3): 422-431.
[25]	Ali S A, Tedone L, Verdini L, et al. Effect of different crop management systems on rainfed durum wheat greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint under Mediterranean conditions[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 140(2): 608-621.
[26]	Wang Z B, Zhang H L, Lu X H, et al. Lowering carbon footprint of winter wheat by improving management practices in North China Plain[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 112: 149-157.
[27]	王兴, 薛建福, 王钰乔, 等. 我国西部地区种植业碳收支分析[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2016, 18(3): 104-111.
	[Wang X, Xue J F, Wang Y Q, et al. Evaluation on carbon balance of crop production in western China[J]. Journal of Agriculture Science and Technology, 2016, 18(3): 104-111. ]
[28]	段智源, 李玉娥, 万运帆, 等. 不同氮肥处理春玉米温室气体的排放[J]. 农业工程学报, 2014, 30(24): 216-224.
	[Duan Z Y, Li Y, Wan Y F, et al. Emission of greenhouse gases for spring maize on different fertilizer treatments[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2014, 30(24): 216-224. ]
[29]	Cui Z L, Wang G L, Yue S C, et al. Closing the N-use efficiency gap to achieve food and environmental security[J]. Environ Science and Technology, 2014, 48(10): 5780-5787.
[30]	张玉铭, 胡春胜, 张佳宝, 等. 农田土壤主要温室气体(CO2、CH4、N2O)的源/汇强度及其温室效应研究进展[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2011, 19(4): 966-975.
	[Zhang Y M, Hu C S, Zhang J B, et al. Research advances on source/sink in densities and greenhouse effects of CO2, CH4 and N2O in agricultural soils[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2011, 19(4): 966-975. ]
[31]	顾乐民. 基于最小一乘准则的中国粮食产量与影响因素的相关性分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2013, 29(11): 1-10.
	[Gu L M.Relative analysis of China’s grain yield and influence factors based on criterion of least absolute deviation[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2013, 29(11): 1-10. ]
[32]	史磊刚, 范士超, 孔凡磊, 等. 华北平原主要作物生产的碳效率研究初报[J]. 作物学报, 2011, 37(8): 1485-1490.
	[Shi L G, Fan S C, Kong F L, et al. Preliminary study on the carbon efficiency of main crops production in North China Plain[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2011, 37(8): 1485-1490. ]
[33]	Yan M, Cheng K, Luo T, et al. Carbon footprint of grain crop production in China-based on farm survey data[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 104: 130-138.
[34]	Yao Z S, Yan G X, Zheng X H,et al. Straw return reduces yield-scaled N2O plus NO emissions from annual winter wheat-based cropping systems in the North China Plain[J]. Science of the Total Environment. 2017, 590-591: 147-185.

农资投入		排放参数	参数来源
种子	小麦	0.58 kg CO₂-eq /kg	ecoinvent 2.2^[20]
	玉米	1.93 (kg CO₂-eq /kg	ecoinvent 2.2
柴油		0.89 kg CO₂-eq /kg	CLCD 0.7^[21]
化肥	复合肥	1.77 kg CO₂-eq /kg	CLCD 0.7
	氮肥	1.53 kg CO₂-eq /kg	CLCD 0.7
	磷肥	1.63 kg CO₂-eq /kg	CLCD 0.7
	钾肥	0.65 kg CO₂-eq /kg	CLCD 0.7
农药	杀虫剂	16.61 kg CO₂-eq /kg	ecoinvent 2.2
	杀菌剂	10.57 kg CO₂-eq /kg	ecoinvent 2.2
	除草剂	10.15 kg CO₂-eq /kg	ecoinvent 2.2
农膜		22.72 kg CO₂-eq /kg	ecoinvent 2.2
灌溉耗电	中国西北	0.97 kg CO₂-eq /3.6MJ	CLCD 0.7
	中国北方	1.23 kg CO₂-eq /3.6MJ	CLCD 0.7
	中国南方	0.82 kg CO₂-eq /3.6MJ	CLCD 0.7
柴油燃烧		4.10 kg CO₂-eq /kg	CLCD 0.7

情景	小麦			玉米
情景	播种面积/（万hm²）	化肥/（kg/hm²）	农药/（kg/hm²）	播种面积/（万hm²）	化肥/（kg/hm²）	农药/（kg/hm²）
S1	2 337.77	365.18	27.41	3 333.33	328.05	24.79
S2	2 337.77	385.46	28.93	3 333.33	346.28	26.16
S3	2 337.77	405.75	30.45	3 333.33	364.50	27.54
S4	2 337.77	405.75	30.45	3 771.42	364.50	27.54

参数意义	小麦模型预估结果	玉米模型预估结果
Y₁柴油使用产生的温室气体排放量/万kg CO₂-eq	Y₁=23.35X₁+7 096.09 (R²=0.90; P<0.01)	Y₁=31.78X₁+16 432.45 (R²=0.37; P<0.01)
A 年份（取1, 2, 3……）
B 玉米播种面积占粮食作物播种面积比例
C 小麦播种面积占粮食作物播种面积比例
X₁ 农用机械总动力/万kW	X₁=C(3 254.75A + 46 113.15) (R²=0.99; P<0.01)	X₁=B(3 925.9 A+52 238.41) (R²=0.99; P<0.01)
Y₂ 灌溉耗电产生的温室气体排放量/万kg CO₂-eq	Y₂=112.40X₂- 4 778.82 (R²=0.41; P<0.01)	Y₂= 810.34X₂- 53 4628.3 (R²=0.35; P<0.01)
X₂ 灌溉面积/万hm²	X₂=C(0.060 A+2.55) (R²=0.99; P<0.01)	X₂=B(96.71A+4 432.84); (R²=0.99; P<0.01)
Y₃种子使用的温室气体排放量/万kg CO₂-eq	Y₃=116.66X₃+3 405.76 (R²=0.92; P<0.01)	Y₃=78.14X₃+8 903.29 (R²=0.89; P<0.01)
X₃作物播种面积/万hm²	Y₃=116.66X₃+3 405.76 (R²=0.92; P<0.01)	Y₃=78.14X₃+8 903.29 (R²=0.89; P<0.01)

情景	小麦		玉米
情景	温室气体排放量/（亿kg CO₂-eq）	单位面积碳足迹/（kg CO₂-eq /hm²）	温室气体排放量/（亿kg CO₂-eq）	单位面积碳足迹/（kg CO₂-eq /hm²）
S1	987.61	4 224.55	1 294.63	3 883.89
S2	1 030.92	4 409.84	1 353.62	4 060.87
S3	1 081.06	4 624.31	1 412.62	4 237.86
S4	1 081.06	4 624.31	1 592.36	4 222.18