资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 1706-1715.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.09.02

• 资源经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于物质流分析的中国金属铜资源生态效率研究

贾冯睿1(), 郎晨1, 刘广鑫1, 孙琪1, 马丹竹1, 岳强2()   

  1. 1.辽宁石油化工大学石油天然气工程学院,抚顺113001
    2.东北大学国家环境保护生态工业重点实验室,沈阳110819
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-22 修回日期:2017-08-14 出版日期:2018-09-20 发布日期:2018-09-14
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:贾冯睿,男,辽宁沈阳人,博士,副教授,从事工业生态学研究。E-mail:frjia@lnpu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71373003)

Assessment of copper resources ecological efficiency based on material flow analysis in China

Fengrui JIA1(), Chen LANG1, Guangxin LIU1, Qi SUN1, Danzhu MA1, Qiang YUE2()   

  1. 1. College of Petroleum Engineering, Liaoning Shihua University, Fushun 113001, China
    2. SEPA Key Laboratory on Eco-Industry, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China
  • Received:2017-05-22 Revised:2017-08-14 Online:2018-09-20 Published:2018-09-14

摘要:

铜是战略物资,其高效利用关系国民经济发展及国家工业化进程。本文运用物质流分析方法,建立了金属铜资源物质流模型,在此基础上,通过层次分析与熵权法构建了铜资源生态效率评价体系,对中国1990年、1995年、2000—2015年铜资源生态效率进行评价,结果显示:单位时间内铜资源生命周期内所产生的可有效利用的金属铜及其附属产品的物质及经济价值总量在1990—2015年间呈先降、后升、再降趋势;铜资源生产、加工、消费和回收过程中所消耗的能源总量及废弃物排放所产生的环境负荷自1990年开始逐年减小;生态效率在1990—2015年期间逐年攀升,于2011年进入中效状态。之后基于未来铜资源生态效率的三种情景进行分析,在情景1和情景2下:2050年中国铜资源生态效率分别达到3.10和3.65,是中效的中等水平和中效的偏高水平;在情景3中:2050年生态效率为4.45,分别为1990年、2000年、2010年、2015年生态效率的3.89、4.15、2.32、1.80倍,铜行业发展状态已达到“微耗损型发展,可持续”的初等水平,预计之后将稳定在4.45左右。依照以上研究结果,铜行业的发展应坚持经济效益和节能环保相结合的方式,以期未来走上绿色、可持续的发展道路。

关键词: 金属铜, 生态效率, 物质流, 情景分析

Abstract:

As an important strategic resources, the use of copper in an efficient way is related to the national economic development and industrialization process. The material flow model of copper resources was established by using material flow analysis. And then, constructing the ecological efficiency evaluation system of copper resources by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and entropy method was conducted. Next, evaluating the copper resources ecological efficiency was performed in China in 1990, 1995, and 2000-2015. The results showed that the MV (Material Flow Analysis and Value Chain Analysis) data were in a fluctuating state in the period 1990-2015; and the EE (Energy Consumption and Environmental Load) began to decrease yearly following 1990. The CREE (Copper Resources Ecological Efficiency) kept increasing in the period from 1990 to 2015, which reached the medium efficiency level in 2011. Furthermore, three scenario analysis for different copper resources ecological efficiency conditions was carried out. Under the first and second scenarios: the CREE is 3.10 and 3.65, which is in the middle level and in the high level of medium efficiency when it reached 2050, respectively. Simultaneously, under the third scenario: the CREE in 2050 is 4.45, which is 3.89, 4.15, 2.32, and 1. 80 times of the CREE in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015, respectively. It is noted that the development of copper industry has reached the theory of “micro consumption, development, sustainability” and the CREE is expected to be stable at about 4. 45. According to the above research results, the development of the copper industry should adhere to the way of the combination of economic efficiency, energy saving, and environmental protection, so as to embark on a green and sustainable development in the future.

Key words: copper, ecological efficiency, material flow, situational analysis