中国城镇化发展对能源消费的影响路径研究——基于直接效应与间接效应视角

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.09.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

加速推进城镇化与实现能源消费量控制是中国现阶段发展的两大任务,探明两者的作用路径对实现绿色可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。本文基于1990—2016年中国省际面板数据,采用两步系统GMM方法与门槛回归模型从直接与间接效应视角构建传导因素的作用路径并检验潜在的门槛效应。结果表明：城镇化对能源消费表现为显著扩张效应,但呈逐渐减弱趋势。在间接传导路径中,产业结构变迁的节能效果显著;城镇化加速技术集聚外溢和“人力资本红利”累积,扭转了技术进步和人力资本累积对能源消费的正向作用方向;中国城镇化仍未脱离高碳化发展阶段,人口扩张与经济增长仍是城镇化进程中能耗持续走高的重要诱因。最后本文验证了各传导因素的门槛效应,即城镇化对能源消费的影响随各因素的发展水平呈现差异性。因此政府及企业应结合各因素作用路径与方向及所处的门槛阶段,注重科技与人力投入,强化质量效应,实现节能的目的。

关键词: 城镇化, 能源消费, 影响路径, 门槛效应, 中国

Abstract:

Accelerating urbanization and achieving total energy consumption control are two major tasks of China's current development. It is of great realistic significance to recognize the action path to achieve green and sustainable development. Based on Chinese provincial panel data from 1990 to 2016 and urban development theory and economic theory, the two-step system GMM method and the threshold regression model were used to construct the path of conduction factors from the perspective of direct and indirect effects and to test the potential threshold effects. The direct effect is the result of the dominant game between expansion effect and quality effect. The results show that urbanization has a significant expansion effect on energy consumption, but tends to weaken gradually. In the indirect transmission path, the energy-saving effect of the industrial structure change is remarkable. The urbanization accelerates technology agglomeration and spillover and accumulation of “human capital bonus, ” which has reversed the positive direction of technology progress and human capital act on energy consumption in the direct effect. However, China’s urbanization is still not divorced from the stage of high carbonization and fails to produce significant energy savings effect as expected. And population and economic growth are still important inducements for energy consumption to keep rising in the process of urbanization. Finally, this paper verifies the threshold effect of different conduction factors, that is, the influence of urbanization on energy consumption is different with the development level of each factor. Therefore, the government and enterprises should combine action path, direction and the threshold stage of different factor, take measures according to local conditions, pay attention to the input of science technology and manpower, reduce the consumption of exhausted energy, optimize the structure of energy consumption, enhance the quality effect, and realize the purpose of energy saving.

Key words: urbanization, energy consumption, influence path, threshold effect, China

周敏, 谢莹莹, 孙叶飞, 高文. 中国城镇化发展对能源消费的影响路径研究——基于直接效应与间接效应视角[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(9): 1693-1705.

Min ZHOU, Yingying XIE, Yefei SUN, Wen GAO. Study on the influence path of China’s urbanization development on energy consumption based on direct and indirect effect perspective[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(9): 1693-1705.

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变量	Lnenc	Urb	Ind	Hum	Rd	Enstr	Rk	Lngdp
均值	3.762	0.446	0.384	7.793	1.026	0.689	4 233.974	4.046
标准差	0.398	0.168	0.781	1.291	0.983	0.235	2 599.205	0.503
最小值	2.201	0.176	0.243	4.608	0.075	0.087	447.660	2.908
最大值	4.590	0.896	0.802	12.389	6.014	1.647	10 999.000	5.072
观测数	810	810	810	810	810	810	810	810
VIF	-	4.430	3.610	6.190	3.130	1.300	1.440	5.080

变量	模型I	模型II
Lnenc_-1	0.627*** (12.36)	0.670*** (12.05)
Urb	0.173** (2.12)	0.317 (0.60)
Urb²		-0.175 (-0.35)
Ind	-0.003** (-10.24)	-0.003*** (-8.13)
Hum	0.019*** (7.13)	0.018*** (4.80)
Rd	0.014* (1.87)	0.027** (2.93)
Enstr	0.078 (4.05)	0.077*** (4.00)
Rk	0.000 04*** (6.82)	0.000 04** (6.64)
Lngdp	0.137*** (3.70)	0.152*** (4.22)
C	0.670*** (10.58)	0.718*** (9.78)
AR(1)	[0.003]	[0.007]
AR(2)	[0.961]	[0.830]
Sargan检验	[1.000]	[1.000]

变量	模型III	模型IV	模型V	模型VI	模型VII
Lnenc_-1	0.721*** (24.24)	0.823*** (40.47)	0.806*** (40.48)	0.893*** (46.85)	0.816*** (24.45)
Urb	0.333*** (5.66)	0.115* (1.66)	0.187*** (4.40 )	0.141*** (4.58)	0.232* (1.66)
Ind	0.003*** (3.85)				0.006** (0.31)
Rd		0.105*** (5.18)			0.071* (5.08)
Hum			0.041*** (7.16 )		0.019* (1.19)
Enstr				0.181** (4.58)	0.013 (0.13)
Urb×Ind	-0.011*** (-6.91)				-0.006* (1.71)
Urb×Rd		-0.172*** (-4.06)			-0.084* (1.10)
Urb×Hum			-0.068*** (-5.87 )		-0.021 (0.99)
Urb×Enstr				0.293** (2.20)	0.198* (1.38)
Rk	0.000 05*** (6.77)	0.000 02*** (3.45)	0.000 02* (3.79)	0.000 02* (2.37)	0.000 06** (5.30)
Lngdp	0.167*** (7.15 )	0.108*** (10.65)	0.109*** (5.20)	0.104*** (10.12)	0.109*** (6.14)
C	0.424** (10.71)	0.407*** (16.24 )	0.287*** (5.5965 )	0.550** (19.23)	0.399*** (3.39)
AR(1)	[0.009]	[0.005]	[0.007]	[0.004]	[0.005]
AR(2)	[0.983]	[0.798]	[0.870]	[0.685]	[0.880]
Sargan检验	[1.000]	[1.000]	[1.000]	[1.000]	[1.000]

解释变量		Urb	Ind	Rd	Enstr
Urb	阶段一	1.521***	0.450***	0.254**	-0.327***
		(15.00)	(5.09)	(2.45)	(-6.56)
	阶段二	1.341	-0.429***	-0.063	0.496***
		(13.50)	(4.07)	(-0.74)	(8.24)
	阶段三	0.934***	-0.577***	-0.243***	0.348**
		(11.04)	(5.32)	(-3.32)	(3.07)