资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 1693-1705.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.09.01
• 资源经济 • 下一篇
收稿日期:
2018-03-19
修回日期:
2018-06-10
出版日期:
2018-09-20
发布日期:
2018-09-14
作者简介:
作者简介:周敏,男,四川威远人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为能源经济管理。E-mail:
基金资助:
Min ZHOU1(), Yingying XIE1, Yefei SUN2, Wen GAO1
Received:
2018-03-19
Revised:
2018-06-10
Online:
2018-09-20
Published:
2018-09-14
摘要:
加速推进城镇化与实现能源消费量控制是中国现阶段发展的两大任务,探明两者的作用路径对实现绿色可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。本文基于1990—2016年中国省际面板数据,采用两步系统GMM方法与门槛回归模型从直接与间接效应视角构建传导因素的作用路径并检验潜在的门槛效应。结果表明:城镇化对能源消费表现为显著扩张效应,但呈逐渐减弱趋势。在间接传导路径中,产业结构变迁的节能效果显著;城镇化加速技术集聚外溢和“人力资本红利”累积,扭转了技术进步和人力资本累积对能源消费的正向作用方向;中国城镇化仍未脱离高碳化发展阶段,人口扩张与经济增长仍是城镇化进程中能耗持续走高的重要诱因。最后本文验证了各传导因素的门槛效应,即城镇化对能源消费的影响随各因素的发展水平呈现差异性。因此政府及企业应结合各因素作用路径与方向及所处的门槛阶段,注重科技与人力投入,强化质量效应,实现节能的目的。
周敏, 谢莹莹, 孙叶飞, 高文. 中国城镇化发展对能源消费的影响路径研究——基于直接效应与间接效应视角[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(9): 1693-1705.
Min ZHOU, Yingying XIE, Yefei SUN, Wen GAO. Study on the influence path of China’s urbanization development on energy consumption based on direct and indirect effect perspective[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(9): 1693-1705.
表1
单变量描述性统计特征和相关系数"
变量 | Lnenc | Urb | Ind | Hum | Rd | Enstr | Rk | Lngdp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
均值 | 3.762 | 0.446 | 0.384 | 7.793 | 1.026 | 0.689 | 4 233.974 | 4.046 |
标准差 | 0.398 | 0.168 | 0.781 | 1.291 | 0.983 | 0.235 | 2 599.205 | 0.503 |
最小值 | 2.201 | 0.176 | 0.243 | 4.608 | 0.075 | 0.087 | 447.660 | 2.908 |
最大值 | 4.590 | 0.896 | 0.802 | 12.389 | 6.014 | 1.647 | 10 999.000 | 5.072 |
观测数 | 810 | 810 | 810 | 810 | 810 | 810 | 810 | 810 |
VIF | - | 4.430 | 3.610 | 6.190 | 3.130 | 1.300 | 1.440 | 5.080 |
表2
直接效应结果"
变量 | 模型I | 模型II |
---|---|---|
Lnenc-1 | 0.627*** (12.36) | 0.670*** (12.05) |
Urb | 0.173** (2.12) | 0.317 (0.60) |
Urb2 | -0.175 (-0.35) | |
Ind | -0.003** (-10.24) | -0.003*** (-8.13) |
Hum | 0.019*** (7.13) | 0.018*** (4.80) |
Rd | 0.014* (1.87) | 0.027** (2.93) |
Enstr | 0.078 (4.05) | 0.077*** (4.00) |
Rk | 0.000 04*** (6.82) | 0.000 04** (6.64) |
Lngdp | 0.137*** (3.70) | 0.152*** (4.22) |
C | 0.670*** (10.58) | 0.718*** (9.78) |
AR(1) | [0.003] | [0.007] |
AR(2) | [0.961] | [0.830] |
Sargan检验 | [1.000] | [1.000] |
表3
间接效应结果"
变量 | 模型III | 模型IV | 模型V | 模型VI | 模型VII |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lnenc-1 | 0.721*** (24.24) | 0.823*** (40.47) | 0.806*** (40.48) | 0.893*** (46.85) | 0.816*** (24.45) |
Urb | 0.333*** (5.66) | 0.115* (1.66) | 0.187*** (4.40 ) | 0.141*** (4.58) | 0.232* (1.66) |
Ind | 0.003*** (3.85) | 0.006** (0.31) | |||
Rd | 0.105*** (5.18) | 0.071* (5.08) | |||
Hum | 0.041*** (7.16 ) | 0.019* (1.19) | |||
Enstr | 0.181** (4.58) | 0.013 (0.13) | |||
Urb×Ind | -0.011*** (-6.91) | -0.006* (1.71) | |||
Urb×Rd | -0.172*** (-4.06) | -0.084* (1.10) | |||
Urb×Hum | -0.068*** (-5.87 ) | -0.021 (0.99) | |||
Urb×Enstr | 0.293** (2.20) | 0.198* (1.38) | |||
Rk | 0.000 05*** (6.77) | 0.000 02*** (3.45) | 0.000 02* (3.79) | 0.000 02* (2.37) | 0.000 06** (5.30) |
Lngdp | 0.167*** (7.15 ) | 0.108*** (10.65) | 0.109*** (5.20) | 0.104*** (10.12) | 0.109*** (6.14) |
C | 0.424** (10.71) | 0.407*** (16.24 ) | 0.287*** (5.5965 ) | 0.550** (19.23) | 0.399*** (3.39) |
AR(1) | [0.009] | [0.005] | [0.007] | [0.004] | [0.005] |
AR(2) | [0.983] | [0.798] | [0.870] | [0.685] | [0.880] |
Sargan检验 | [1.000] | [1.000] | [1.000] | [1.000] | [1.000] |
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