资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (8): 1526-1538.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.08.04
收稿日期:
2017-09-08
修回日期:
2018-04-03
出版日期:
2018-08-25
发布日期:
2018-08-10
作者简介:
作者简介:李凌超,男,山东济宁人,博士,硕士生导师,主要研究方向为森林转型和土地利用变化。E-mail:
基金资助:
Lingchao LI1(), Jinlong LIU2, Baodong CHENG1(
), Wentao YANG3
Received:
2017-09-08
Revised:
2018-04-03
Online:
2018-08-25
Published:
2018-08-10
摘要:
森林转型理论阐述了几百年来各国实现森林恢复的路径与机制。改革开放以来,中国不断融入经济全球化的进程,成为全球经济增长最为显著、同时森林生态大幅改善的国家,为维护全球生态安全作出重要贡献,经济全球化背景下中国社会经济与森林生态协调发展的规律和经验需要进一步探索与总结。本文对森林转型的理论进行扩展,基于1981—2010年的省际面板数据,考虑到变量间的空间依赖性,采用GMM方法和空间面板模型对劳动力转移对森林转型的影响进行研究。结果表明,中国森林数量与森林质量变化的驱动力有所不同。改革开放以来中国政府采取的大规模营林公共投资是森林面积恢复最主要的原因。然而,由于新造林的蓄积量较低,森林面积增长的同时也伴随着短期平均森林密度的下降。而中国对外贸易发展、尤其是沿海地区出口导向型经济的成长,引发内陆到沿海地区的劳动力转移,减轻森林资源集中的内陆林区对森林资源的生计消耗,成为促进中国森林密度提高与森林质量改善的最显著因素。
李凌超, 刘金龙, 程宝栋, 杨文涛. 中国劳动力转移对森林转型的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(8): 1526-1538.
Lingchao LI, Jinlong LIU, Baodong CHENG, Wentao YANG. Influence of labor transfer on China's forest transition[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(8): 1526-1538.
表1
变量的统计性描述"
变量 | 均值 | 标准差 | 最小值 | 最大值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
FA/万hm2 | 567.792 | 535.314 | 0.990 | 2366.400 |
FD/(m3/hm2) | 42.179 | 30.713 | 1.899 | 142.760 |
INV/万美元 | 2 088.381 | 4 084.684 | 1.402 | 34 733.900 |
EPIDEN/(人/km2) | 67.387 | 47.641 | 1.553 | 203.810 |
EXP/亿美元 | 28.081 | 80.353 | 0.021 | 741.629 |
MO/万人 | 20.577 | 26.089 | 0.700 | 136.640 |
GDPPC/美元 | 316.297 | 343.988 | 33.288 | 2 158.886 |
GYPC/t | 0.359 | 0.16 | 0.040 | 1.105 |
表2
1981—2010年中国森林面积影响因素的模型估计结果"
(1) GMM | (2) SAR CONT | (3) SAR DIST | (4) SEM CONT | (5) SEM DIST | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
解释变量 EXP | -0.144 (0.108) | -0.079* (0.042) | -0.074* (0.045) | -0.071 (0.044) | -0.046 (0.046) |
MO | -0.091** (0.041) | -0.078** (0.037) | -0.093** (0.040) | -0.095* (0.049) | -0.147** (0.066) |
控制变量 INV | 0.082*** (0.025) | 0.061*** (0.021) | 0.068*** (0.023) | 0.080*** (0.025) | 0.095*** (0.028) |
EPIDEN | 0.128 (0.137) | 0.457** (0.195) | 0.457** (0.208) | 0.431** (0.201) | 0.489** (0.203) |
GDPPC | 0.046 (0.135) | 0.092 (0.071) | 0.049 (0.082) | 0.147* (0.086) | 0.077 (0.159) |
GYPC | -0.035 (0.102) | -0.210** (0.087) | -0.202** (0.093) | -0.259*** (-0.098) | -0.289*** (0.106) |
空间系数 | 0.434*** (0.091) | 0.489*** (0.172) | 0.475*** (0.100) | 0.685*** (0.251) | |
Arellano-Bond检验 一阶自相关 | -1.361 | ||||
二阶自相关 Sargan检验 Hausman检验 | -1.826* 5.489 | 90.75*** | 100.74*** | 37.53*** | 40.76*** |
表3
1981—2010年中国森林密度影响因素的模型估计结果"
(1) GMM | (2) SAR CONT | (3) SAR DIST | (4) SEM CONT | (5) SEM DIST | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
解释变量 EXP | 0.179* (0.105) | 0.117** (0.047) | 0.139*** (0.051) | 0.114** (0.048) | 0.081* (0.048) |
MO | 0.201*** (0.052) | 0.174*** (0.047) | 0.208*** (0.046) | 0.229*** (0.053) | 0.368*** (0.064) |
控制变量 INV | -0.053* (0.028) | -0.061*** (0.021) | -0.080*** (0.022) | -0.072*** (0.026) | -0.044 (0.031) |
EPIDEN | -0.246** (0.117) | -0.562** (0.228) | -0.635** (0.248) | -0.645*** (0.216) | -0.573*** (0.223) |
GDPPC | -0.209 (0.149) | -0.148* (0.078) | -0.182** (0.087) | -0.082 (0.098) | 0.455** (0.200) |
GYPC | -0.084 (0.165) | 0.090 (0.094) | 0.049 (0.102) | 0.171* (0.105) | 0.237** (0.105) |
空间系数 | 0.438*** (0.085) | 0.397** (0.202) | 0.577*** (0.094) | 0.920*** (0.035) | |
Arellano-Bond检验 一阶自相关 | -2.024** | ||||
二阶自相关 Sargan检验 Hausman检验 | -0.922 9.327 | 129.23*** | 51.71*** | 57.10*** | 71.78*** |
表4
1981—2010年中国森林面积变化量影响因素的模型估计结果"
(1) GMM | (2) SAR CONT | (3) SAR DIST | (4) SEM CONT | (5) SEM DIST | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
解释变量 EXP | -1.079*** (0.195) | -0.470*** (0.176) | -0.502*** (0.170) | -0.450** (0.188) | -0.476*** (0.176) |
MO | -0.811** (0.365) | -0.367** (0.154) | -0.369** (0.152) | -0.409** (0.174) | -0.427** (0.194) |
控制变量 INV | 0.415*** (0.124) | 0.233*** (0.083) | 0.227*** (0.081) | 0.240** (0.096) | 0.213** (0.100) |
EPIDEN | 0.283 (0.448) | 0.235 (0.804) | 0.446 (0.785) | 0.187 (0.839) | 0.370 (0.797) |
GDPPC | 1.569** (0.717) | 0.620** (0.285) | 0.608** (0.282) | 0.716** (0.309) | 0.845** (0.354) |
GYPC | 0.619 (0.649) | 0.288 (0.354) | 0.373 (0.352) | 0.376 (0.379) | 0.496 (0.396) |
空间系数 | 0.224** (0.090) | 0.519*** (0.161) | 0.216* (0.111) | 0.510*** (0.182) | |
Arellano-Bond检验 一阶自相关 | -1.478 | ||||
二阶自相关 Sargan检验 Hausman检验 | -1.143 6.321 | 407.23*** | -115.52 | 63.18*** | 20.68*** |
表5
1981—2010年中国森林密度变化量影响因素的模型估计结果"
(1) GMM | (2) SAR CONT | (3) SAR DIST | (4) SEM CONT | (5) SEM DIST | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
解释变量 EXP | 10.897** (4.421) | 8.577*** (2.024) | 9.967*** (2.330) | 8.063*** (2.062) | 8.596*** (2.448) |
MO | 8.302*** (1.829) | 4.245** (1.816) | 5.890*** (2.079) | 5.265** (2.591) | 8.388*** (2.943) |
控制变量 INV | -1.933 (1.258) | -1.753* (0.943) | -2.791*** (1.075) | -2.102* (1.259) | -3.183** (1.384) |
EPIDEN | -5.667 (4.455) | -14.581** (9.272) | -16.421 (10.737) | -14.713 (9.599) | -17.126 (10.780) |
GDPPC | -13.457** (5.709) | -8.199** (3.304) | -9.053** (3.825) | -7.060 (4.698) | -5.947 (6.238) |
GYPC | 0.623 (2.335) | 4.864 (4.159) | 3.719 (4.813) | 6.242 (4.820) | 7.104 (5.442) |
空间系数 | 0.610*** (0.075) | 0.640*** (0.136) | 0.658*** (0.077) | 0.696*** (0.149) | |
Arellano-Bond检验 一阶自相关 | -1.832* | ||||
二阶自相关 Sargan检验 Hausman检验 | -0.913 3.023 | 25.67*** | 31.69*** | 26.06*** | 33.47*** |
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