江西省农业人口转移对城市建设用地增加的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.08.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

伴随中国城镇化的快速发展,大量农业人口向城市转移,城市建设用地面积不断增加。探讨农业人口转移对城市建设用地增加的影响,对推进新型城镇化和实现农民市民化具有十分重要的意义。本文基于2006—2015年江西省11个地级市相关统计数据,采用固定效应与随机效应模型,研究了农业人口转移对城市总建设用地增加及不同类型城市建设用地增加的影响。研究结果表明：农业人口转移在1%的显著性水平下正向影响城市总建设用地增加;农业人口转移对城市工商用地、居住用地和交通绿地广场用地增加的影响分别通过了10%、1%和5%水平下的显著性检验,且其受影响的弹性系数依次为0.167、0.155和0.135;但伴随农业人口的转移,城市公共设施用地并没有显著增加;农业人口转移对不同类型城市建设用地增量的影响存在区域差异。因此,政府应根据农业人口转移的进程适度增加城市公共设施用地,合理布局不同的城市建设用地类型,有效推进新型城镇化建设,实现农业转移人口市民化。

关键词: 农业人口转移, 城市建设用地增加, 城镇化, 固定效应模型, 随机效应模型, 江西省

Abstract:

With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the area of urban construction land has been increasing, when a large number of agricultural population keep transferring to cities. The purpose of this paper is to explore the influence of agricultural population transfer on the growth of urban construction land,which is of great significance for promoting the construction of new urbanization and achieving the real transfer of agricultural population.Based on the statistical data of 11 cities in Jiangxi province from 2006 to 2015,the fixed effect and the random effect model were used to study the influence of the agricultural population transfer on the increase of urban total construction land and different types of urban construction land. The results show that the transfer of agricultural population in Jiangxi had a significant positive impact on the growth of urban construction land, and passed the test under one percent level. What's more, the transfer of agricultural population also exerted significant effects on the growths of urban industrial-commercial land, urban residential land and traffic-green-square land, and quite obvious in the scope of ten percent,one percent and five percent respectively, and the influence coefficients correspondingly were 0.167, 0.155, and 0.135. However, with the transfer of agricultural population, there has been no significant growth in urban public facilities-service land.There are regional differences among different cities, when the increase of different types of construction lands are impacted by the agricultural population transfer.Thus, it is concluded that the transfer of agricultural population will enhance the total amount of urban construction land. Thus, according to the process of agricultural population transfer, the government should moderately increase the urban public facilities land, rationally layout different types of urban construction land, for effectively promoting the construction of new urbanization and finally realizing the urbanization of agricultural population.

Key words: agricultural population transfer, growth of urban construction land, urbanization, fixed effect model, random effect model, Jiangxi Province

邹秀清, 谢美辉, 肖泽干, 涂小松, 王彦, 徐国良. 江西省农业人口转移对城市建设用地增加的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(8): 1515-1525.

Xiuqing ZOU, Meihui XIE, Zegan XIAO, Xiaosong TU, Yan WANG, Guoliang XU. An empirical study on the influence of agricultural population transfer on urban construction land increase in Jiangxi Province[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(8): 1515-1525.

图/表 3

表1

表2

表3

参考文献 58

[1]	陈本清, 徐涵秋. 城市扩展及其驱动力遥感分析-以厦门市为例[J]. 经济地理, 2005, 25(1): 79-83.
	[Chen B Q, Xu H Q.Urban expansion and its driving force analysis using remote sensed data-a case of Xiamen city[J]. Economic Geography, 2005, 25(1): 79-83. ]
[2]	黎夏, 叶嘉安. 利用遥感监测和分析珠江三角洲的城市扩张过程-以东莞市为例[J]. 地理研究, 1997, 16(4): 56-62.
	[Li X, Ye J A.Application of remote sensing for monitoring and analysis of urban expansion-a case study of Dongguan[J]. Geographical Research, 1997, 16(4): 56-62. ]
[3]	中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会发展规划司. 国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020)[EB/OL]. (2014-04-18)[2018-01-19]. .
	[Development Planning Division of National Development and Reform Commission. National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) [EB/OL]. (2014-04-18)[2018-01-19]. ]
[4]	中华人民共和国国务院公报. 关于深入推进新型城镇化建设的若干意见[EB/OL]. (2016-02-06)[2018-01-19]. .
	[Gazette of the State Council of the People's Republic of China. Some Opinions on Further Promoting the Construction of New Urbanization[EB/OL]. (2016-02-06)[2018-01-19]. ]
[5]	中华人民共和国全国人民代表大会常务委员会公报. 国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要[EB/OL]. (2016-03-17)[2018-01-19]. .
	[Gazette of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China. The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan[EB/OL]. (2016-03-17)[2018-01-19]. ]
[6]	邓胜华, 梅昀, 陈曲, 等. 基于对应分析的城市建设用地扩张研究-以武汉市为例[J]. 资源科学, 2010, 32(9): 1746-1751.
	[Deng S H, Mei Y, Chen Q, et al. A study on urban construction land expansion based on correspondence analysis: a case study of Wuhan city, Hubei province[J]. Resources Science, 2010, 32(9): 1746-1751. ]
[7]	张雅杰, 金海. 长江中游地区城市建设用地利用效率及驱动机理研究[J]. 资源科学, 2015, 37(7): 1384-1393.
	[Zhang Y J, Jin H.Research on efficiency of urban construction land and the drive mechanism in the Mid-Yangtze River[J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(7): 1384-1393. ]
[8]	程业炳, 张德化. 农业转移人口市民化的制度障碍与路径选择[J]. 社会科学家, 2016, (7): 42-46.
	[Cheng Y B, Zhang D H.System obstacles and path choices of citizenization of agricultural transfer population[J]. Social Scientist, 2016, (7): 42-46. ]
[9]	吴业苗. 农业人口转移的新常态与市民化进路[J]. 农业经济问题, 2016, 37(3): 43-50.
	[Wu Y M.The new normal of urban population transfer and citizenization approach[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2016, 37(3): 43-50. ]
[10]	卢小君, 张宁, 王丽丽. 农业转移人口城市落户意愿的影响因素[J]. 城市问题, 2016, (11): 99-103.
	[Lu X J, Zhang N, Wang L L.Influencing factors of urban settlement willingness of agricultural transfer population[J]. Urban Problems, 2016, (11): 99-103. ]
[11]	蔡继明, 熊柴, 高宏. 我国人口城市化与空间城市化非协调发展及成因[J]. 经济学动态, 2013, (6): 15-22.
	[Cai J M, Xiong C, Gao H.Non-coordinated development of population urbanization and spatial urbanization in China and its causes[J]. Economic Perspectives, 2013, (6): 15-22. ]
[12]	潘爱民, 刘友金. 湘江流域人口城镇化与土地城镇化失调程度及特征研究[J]. 经济地理, 2014, 34(5): 63-68.
	[Pan A M, Liu Y J.The degree of imbalance between population urbanization and land urbanization of Xiangjiang River Basin[J]. Economic Geography, 2014, 34(5): 63-68. ]
[13]	吕添贵, 吴次芳, 李洪义, 等. 人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调性测度及优化-以南昌市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(2): 239-246.
	[Lv T K, Wu C F, Li H Y, et al. The coordination and its optimization about population and land of urbanization: a case study of Nanchang city[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(2): 239-246. ]
[14]	孙丽萍, 杨筠. 基于城镇体系视角的西部人口城镇化和土地城镇化协调性的实证分析[J]. 现代城市研究, 2015, (12): 24-29.
	[Sun L P, Yang Y.Empirical analysis of the coordination between population urbanization and land urbanization based on urban system perspective in West China[J]. Modern Urban Research, 2015, (12): 24-29. ]
[15]	赵可, 张安录, 徐卫涛. 中国城市建设用地扩张驱动力的时空差异分析[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(5): 935-941.
	[Zhao K, Zhang A L, Xu W T.Driving forces of urban construction land expansion: an empirical analysis based on provincial panel data[J]. Resources Science, 2011, 33(5): 935-941. ]
[16]	郄瑞卿. 中国城市人口与城市建设用地的时空变化[J]. 城市规划, 2014, 38(5): 22-28.
	[Xi R Q.Spatio-temporal change of urban population and urban construction land in China[J]. City Planning Review, 2014, 38(5): 22-28. ]
[17]	刘涛, 曹广忠. 中国城市用地规模的影响因素分析-以2005年县级及以上城市为例[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(8): 1570-1577.
	[Liu T, Cao G Z.Analysis of influencing factors of urban land use scale in China-a case study of cities at county level and above in 2005[J]. Resources Science, 2011, 33(8): 1570-1577. ]
[18]	Meyer W B, Turner B L.Human population growth and global land-use/cover change[J]. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 1992, 23: 39-61.
[19]	Klein G K, Beusen A, Van D G, et al. The HYDE 3. 1 spatially explicit database of human-induced global land-use change over the past 12, 000 years[J]. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2011, 20(1): 73-86.
[20]	Vanwey L K.Land ownership as a determinant of international and internal migration in Mexico and internal migration in Thai-land[J]. The International Migration Review, 2005, 39(1): 141-172.
[21]	许言. 新型城镇化背景下农业人口转移走向研究[D]. 南京: 南京师范大学, 2015.
	[Xu Y.Research on the Trend of Agricultural Population Transfer under the Background of New Urbanization[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing Normal University, 2015. ]
[22]	张文忠, 传胜, 薛东前. 珠江三角洲城镇用地扩展的城市化背景研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2003, 18(5): 576-582.
	[Zhang W Z, Chuan S, Xue D Q.Research on the urbanization background of urban land use expansion in the Pearl River Delta[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2003, 18(5): 576-582. ]
[23]	王丽萍, 周寅康, 薛俊菲. 江苏省城市用地扩张及驱动机制研究[J]. 中国土地科学, 2005, 19(6): 26-29.
	[Wang L P, Zhou Y K, Xue J F.Study on urban land expansion and driving forces in Jiangsu province[J]. China Land Sciences, 2005, 19(6): 26-29. ]
[24]	Shoshany M, Goldshleger N.Land-use and population density changes in Israel-1950 to 1990: analysis of regional and local trends[J]. Land Use Policy, 2002, 19(2): 123-133.
[25]	谈明洪, 李秀彬, 吕昌河. 20世纪90年代中国大中城市建设用地扩张及其对耕地的占用[J]. 中国科学, 2004, 34(12): 1157-1165.
	[Tan M H, Li X B, Lv C H.20 century 90s, the expansion of China's large and medium urban construction land and its occupation of cultivated land[J]. Scientia Sinica(Terrae), 2004, 34(12): 1157-1165. ]
[26]	陈利根, 陈会广, 曲福田, 等. 经济发展、产业结构调整与城镇建设用地规模控制-以马鞍山市为例[J]. 资源科学, 2004, (6): 137-144.
	[Chen L G, Chen H G, Qu F T, et al. Economic development, industrial restructuring and scale regulation of urban construction land: the case of Maanshan city[J]. Resources Science, 2004, (6): 137-144. ]
[27]	赵可, 张安录, 李平. 城市建设用地扩张的驱动力-基于省际面板数据的分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(8): 1323-1332.
	[Zhao K, Zhang A L, Li P.Driving forces of urban construction land expansion: an empirical analysis based on panel data of provinces[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(8): 1323-1332. ]
[28]	高圣平, 刘守英. 集体建设用地进入市场: 现实与法律困境[J]. 管理世界, 2007, (3): 62-72.
	[Gao S P, Liu S Y.Entering the market for collective construction land: reality and legal dilemma[J]. Management World, 2007, (3): 62-72. ]
[29]	赵可, 张安录. 城市建设用地、经济发展与城市化关系的计量分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011, 21(1): 7-12.
	[Zhao K, Zhang A L.An econometric analysis of the relationships among urban construction land, economic development and level of urbanization[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011, 21(1): 7-12. ]
[30]	曲福田, 陈江龙, 陈雯. 农地非农化经济驱动机制的理论分析与实证研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(2): 231-241.
	[Qu F T, Chen J L, Chen W.Theoretical and empirical study on the land conversion economic driving forces[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 20(2): 231-241. ]
[31]	王婧, 方创琳. 城市建设用地增长研究进展与展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(11): 1440-1448.
	[Wang J, Fang C L.Growth of urban construction land: progress and prospect[J]. Progress in Geography, 2011, 30(11): 1440-1448. ]
[32]	韦素琼, 陈健飞. 闽台建设用地变化与工业化耦合的对比分析[J]. 地理研究, 2006, 25(1): 87-95.
	[Wei S Q, Chen J F.Comparative analysis of coupling construction land change with industrialization in Fujian and Taiwan[J]. Geographical Research, 2006, 25(1): 87-95. ]
[33]	张雪茹, 尹志强, 姚亦锋, 等. 安徽省城市建设用地变化及驱动力分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(4): 544-551.
	[Zhang X R, Yin Z Q, Yao Y F, et al. Analysis on urban construction land change and driving forces in Anhui province[J]. Resources and Environment of the Yangtze River Basin, 2016, 25(4): 544-551. ]
[34]	匡兵, 卢新海, 周敏, 等. 武汉城市群城市用地结构时空演变特征及其机理[J]. 经济地理, 2016, 36(5): 71-78.
	[Kuang B, Lu X H, Zhou M, et al. Spatio-Temporal features of urban land structure change in Wuhan city group and underlying causes[J]. Economic Geography, 2016, 36(5): 71-78. ]
[35]	林目轩, 陈秧分, 师迎春, 等. 大城市内部建设用地扩张差异及其原因-以长沙市区为例[J]. 经济地理, 2006, (5): 836-841.
	[Lin M X, Chen Y F, Shi Y C, et al. Analysis on the difference of construction land expansion among the inner districts of big city and its cause: a case study of Changsha city[J]. Economic Geography, 2006, (5): 836-841. ]
[36]	张勇. 农业劳动力转移、增长和失业-农业劳动力和农村贫困问题的实证分析[J]. 经济问题, 2008, (10): 69-72.
	[Zhang Y.Agricultural surplus labor force transfer, growth and unemployment-empirical analysis for agricultural surplus labor force and rural poverty problem[J]. Economic Problems, 2008, (10): 69-72. ]
[37]	张勇. 农业劳动力转移与经济增长的实证研究[J]. 经济评论, 2009, (1): 42-47.
	[Zhang Y.An empirical study on the labor force transfer and economic growth[J]. Economic Review, 2009, (1): 42-47. ]
[38]	北京市规划委员会. 关于发布《容积率指标计算规则》的通知[EB/OL]. (2014-04-22)[2018-01-19]. .
	[Planning Committee of Beijing. Notice on Issuing Rules for Calculation of Plot Ratio Index[EB/OL]. (2014-04-22)[2018-01-19]. ]
[39]	马定国, 蔡霞. 基于“六普”数据的江西省人口迁移透视[J]. 西北人口, 2014, 35(4): 28-33.
	[Ma D G, Cai X.Analysis on population migration in Jiangxi province based on 6th census data[J]. Northwest Population Journal, 2014, 35(4): 28-33. ]
[40]	江西省政府信息公开. 江西省人口发展规划(2016-2030年)[EB/OL]. (2017-11-01)[2018-01-19]. .
	[People’s Government of Jiangxi Province. Jiangxi Population Development Plan (2016-2030)[EB/OL]. (2017-11-01)[2018-01-19]. ]
[41]	张红. 房地产经济学[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2005.
	[Zhan H.Real Estate Economics [M]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2005. ]
[42]	沈坤荣. 体制转型期的中国经济增长[M]. 南京: 南京大学出版社, 1999.
	[Shen K R.China's Economic Growth in the System Transformation Period[M]. Nanjing: Nanjing University Press, 1999. ]
[43]	舒帮荣, 李永乐, 曲艺, 等. 不同职能城市建设用地扩张及其驱动力研究-基于中国137个地级以上城市的考察[J]. 南京农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2014, (2): 86-92.
	[Shu B R, Li Y L, Qu Y, et al. Urban land expansion and its driving forces in different functional cities: an empirical analysis based on 137 cities in China[J]. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University (Social Science Edition), 2014, (2): 86-92. ]
[44]	江西省统计局. 江西统计年鉴(2006-2016)[EB/OL]. (2017-02-24)[2018-01-19]. .
	[Statistics Bureau of Jiangxi Province. Jiangxi Statistical Yearbook(2006-2016)[EB/OL]. (2017-02-24)[2018-01-19]. ]
[45]	江西省住房和城乡建设厅. 江西城市(县城)建设统计年鉴(2006-2016)[M]. 南昌: 江西省住房和城乡厅出版社, 2006-2016.
	[Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of Jiangxi Province. Statistical Yearbook of Urban(County) Development of Jiangxi Province(2006-2016) [M]. Nanchang: Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of Jiangxi Province Press, 2006-2016. ]
[46]	陈强. 高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2014.
	[Chen Q.Advanced Econometrics and Stata Application[M]. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2014. ]
[47]	Driscoll J C, Kraay A C.Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1998, 80(4): 549-560.
[48]	Golden M A, Picci L.Pork barrel politics in Postwar Italy,1953-1994[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2007, 52(2): 268-289.
[49]	Hoechle D, Schmid M M, Zimmermann H.A Generalization of the Calendar Time Portfolio Approach and the Performance of Private Investors[R]. Basel: Working Papers 2007/14, 2007.
[50]	陈强. 高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2014.
	[Chen Q.Advanced Econometrics and Stata Application[M]. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2014. ]
[51]	黄季焜, 朱莉芬, 邓祥征. 中国建设用地扩张的区域差异及其影响因素[J]. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 2007, 37(9): 1235-1241.
	[Huang J K, Zhu L F, Deng X Z.Regional differences and influencing factors of China's construction land expansion[J]. Scientia Sinica(Terrae), 2007, 37(9): 1235-1241. ]
[52]	Muth R F.Differential Growth Among Large US Cities[M]. Washington: Washington University, 1968.
[53]	Alonso W.Location and land use toward a general theory of land rent[J]. American Economic Review, 1964, 54(5): 844-845.
[54]	Brueckner J K.The Structure of Urban Equilibria: a Unified Treatment of the Muth-Mills Model[M]. Elsevier: Elsevier Science Publishers, 1986.
[55]	陈竹, 黄凌翔. 不同类型建设用地扩张的时序及空间特征-加速失效模型在天津市静海区的应用[J]. 中国土地科学, 2017, 31(7): 67-73.
	[Chen Z, Huang L X.Temporal and spatial characteristics of construction land expansion: application of accelerate failure time survival model in Jinghai district, Tianjin city[J]. China Land Science, 2017, 31(7): 67-73. ]
[56]	Shen J.A study of the temporary population in Chinese cities[J]. Habitat International, 2002, 26(3): 363-377.
[57]	张敏. 大城市外围地区流动人口结构及其城镇建设用地使用特征研究-以深圳市平湖镇为例[J]. 人文地理, 2002, 17(6): 11-14.
	[Zhang M.Study on the floating population structure in the peripheral areas of metropolis and the characteristics of land use for urban construction-a case study of Pinghu Town, Shenzhen[J]. Human Geography, 2002, 17(6): 11-14. ]
[58]	陈义勇, 刘涛. 北京城市总体规划中人口规模预测的反思与启示[J]. 规划师, 2015, 31(10): 16-21.
	[Chen Y Y, Liu T.Reflection on population prediction in Beijing urban master plan[J]. Planners, 2015, 31(10): 16-21. ]

变量分类	变量代码	指标特征	计算方法
被解释变量	城市总建设用地增加（UCL）	城市建成区面积增加量/km²	自然对数
	城市居住用地增加（RL）	城市居住用地增加量/km²	自然对数
	城市工商用地增加（IC）	城市工业、商业服务业用地增加量/km²	自然对数
	城市交通绿地广场增加（TGS）	城市交通、道路、绿地广场增加量/km²	自然对数
	城市公共设施用地增加（GS）	城市公共设施用地增加量/km²	自然对数
解释变量	农业人口转移（POP）	每年城区人口增加-每年城区自然增长/人	自然对数
控制变量	城市经济发展水平（EDP）	年鉴地区人均GDP×100/当年CPI价格指数/元	自然对数
	固定资产投资（INV）	固定资产投资/万元	自然对数
	产业结构调整（INDS）	第三产业产值/第二产业产值/%	比值
	城市人均绿地（AGL）	城市人均绿地面积/km²	自然对数

	居住用地		工商用地		交通绿地广场用地		公共设施用地
	固定效应		固定效应		随机效应		固定效应
	β 值	t 值	β 值	t 值	β 值	z 值	β 值	t 值
农业人口转移（POP）	0.155***	3.20	0.167*	2.02	0.135**	2.23	0.154	1.71
城市经济发展水平（EDP）	0.123	0.26	1.060**	2.28	-0.071	-0.47	-1.060*	-1.85
固定资产投资（INV）	0.041	0.16	-1.212***	-4.27	0.487***	3.61	0.661	0.21
产业结构调整（INDS）	0.901	0.75	0.534	0.49	0.407	0.42	1.420	1.74
城市人均绿地（AGL）	-0.860*	-2.16	0.917	1.27	-0.256	-0.54	0.897*	2.49
常数项	0.503	0.28	6.134	5.93	-6.006	-3.57	6.259	2.57
样本量	120		120		120		120
模型修正结果	Driscoll & Kraay		Driscoll & Kraay		聚类稳健		聚类稳健
hausman检验P值	0.019		0.000		0.961		0.002
R²	0.063		0.088		0.210		0.137
F统计量	23.010		22.760		52.850		11.720
F检验P值	0.000		0.000		0.000		0.000

	城市总建设用地增量		城市总建设用地增量(修正后)
	固定效应		固定效应
	β 值	t 值	β 值	t 值
农业人口转移（POP）	0.260***	3.84	0.260***	4.34
城市经济发展水平（EDP）	0.619	1.26	0.619*	2.19
固定资产投资（INV）	-0.514	-1.45	-0.514*	-2.18
产业结构调整（INDS）	-1.232	-1.20	-1.232**	-2.49
城市人均绿地（AGL）	0.258	0.49	0.258	1.02
常数项	3.193	1.47	3.193	2.22
样本量	120		120
模型修正结果	未修正		Driscoll & Kraay
hausman检验P值	0.000		0.000
R²	0.141		0.141
F统计量	2.830		9.310
F检验P值	0.014		0.001