资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (8): 1505-1514.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.08.02

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非农就业对林地流转的影响——基于双内生视角的MV Tobit估计

张寒1(), 杨红强2, 陈海滨1, 刘晶1, 许时蕾1, 刘浩3, 刘璨1,3()   

  1. 1. 西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌 712100
    2. 南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京 210037
    3. 国家林业局经济发展研究中心,北京 100714
  • 收稿日期:2017-10-08 修回日期:2018-04-07 出版日期:2018-08-25 发布日期:2018-08-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:张寒,男,江苏铜山人,博士,副教授,主要从事林业经济方面研究。E-mail: hanzhang32@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403213);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(18YJA790104);西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费人文社科项目(2018RWSK06)

The effects of off-farm employment on forestland transfer: the MV Tobit estimation with endogeneity perspectives

Han ZHANG1(), Hongqiang YANG2, Haibin CHEN1, Jing LIU1, Shilei XU1, Hao LIU3, Can LIU1,3()   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China
    2. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
    3. Economic and Development Research Center, State Forestry Administration, Beijing 100714, China
  • Received:2017-10-08 Revised:2018-04-07 Online:2018-08-25 Published:2018-08-10

摘要:

新一轮集体林权制度改革后,林地的市场交易行为并未如政策预期。为了探讨非农就业是否阻碍了林地流转,本文构建了双内生农户决策模型,并利用国家林业局对全国9省区1497个农户的固定样本连续监测数据进行实证检验。考虑到林地流转和非农就业的双内生性、以及被解释变量的数据删截性问题,采用了多方程系统Tobit模型进行回归分析。研究结果显示,非农就业对林地流入具有显著的抑制作用;相反,非农就业对林地流出的作用并不显著,这与林地流转契约的长期性和林地生计保障功能密切相关;无论是对流入还是流出,交易成本都是一个重要的负向因素,且在1%的统计水平上显著;其他显著影响林地流转的因素还包括工资水平、林木价格、林地面积、林地细碎化程度、家庭人口数等,这些因素对林地流入和流出的影响方向相反。上述发现有助于理解林地流转不活跃的经济机理,为后续配套改革提供决策参考。

关键词: 林地流转, 非农就业, 集体林改, 双内生农户决策模型, 影响因素, MV Tobit

Abstract:

After the new round of collective forest tenure reform, the forestland transactions seem still inactive in China, which is not as expected as policymakers. Under this background, it is crucial to understand what are the factors that determine farmers’ behavior of forestland transfer. To investigate whether off-farm employment hinders forestland transfer, we established a household decision model, where the forestland transfer decision and off-farm employment decision are endogenous. Then the empirical analysis is performed based on a household survey dataset, which involves 1497 households from 9 provinces in China. This dataset is collected by the State Forestry Administration and is ranged from 2003 to 2013. Given the endogeneity of farmers’ decision-making process, the off-farm employment should be regarded as an endogenous variable. Meanwhile, the fact that the majority of households didn’t transfer their forestland implies that the explained variable is censored. Hence, the multivariate Tobit approach is applied to deal with the endogeneity and censoring issues. The results show that off-farm employment has a significantly negative effect on forestland rent-in, while the effect on rent-out is insignificant. This insignificance might be owing to the long-period feature of forestland transfer contracts and the role of forestland on household livelihood. For rural farmers, forestlands are considered to be a “safety net” once they lose their employments in off-farm sector. Moreover, transaction cost is an important factor that influence the decision of forestland transfer. That is, the variable of transaction cost imposes a negative effect on both rent-in and rent-out at the 1% statistical level. Besides, off-farm wage rate, timber prices, forestland area, forestland fragmentation, and the amount of household members also have significant effects on behaviors of forestland transfer. Their effects are opposite with regard to rent-in and rent-out behaviors. These findings will facilitate policymakers to understand what factors determine forestland transfer, and will provide beneficial suggestions in the following-up reform.

Key words: forestland transfer, off-farm employment, collective forest tenure reform, endogenous household decision model, influence factors, Multivariate Tobit