资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (7): 1450-1458.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.07.13

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长三角地区成品油应急储备布局优化研究

吕涛1,2(), 高剑1,2(), 王政2   

  1. 1. 中国矿业大学,江苏省能源经济管理研究基地,徐州 221116
    2. 中国矿业大学管理学院,徐州 221116
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-23 修回日期:2018-02-07 出版日期:2018-07-20 发布日期:2018-07-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:吕涛,男,江苏沛县人,博士、教授、博士生导师,主要从事能源经济与管理领域的研究工作。E-mail: taocumt@cumt.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2014XT06)

Research on emergency reserves and layout of refined oil in the Yangtze River Delta

Tao LV1,2(), Jian GAO1,2(), Zheng WANG2   

  1. 1. Jiangsu Energy Economy and Management Research Base, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
    2. School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
  • Received:2017-06-23 Revised:2018-02-07 Online:2018-07-20 Published:2018-07-20

摘要:

长三角地区作为中国成品油消费量较高的区域,目前还没有建立完善的成品油应急储备体系,对成品油供应中断事件的响应能力较弱。本文在确定储备基地、划分应急调运渠道的基础上,建立了成品油应急运输网络,并应用灰色预测和多目标优化模型对2020年成品油应急储备规模与布局展开了研究。研究结果表明,随着预警等级的提高,总体储备规模逐渐增加,各储备基地储备规模受覆盖范围和服务区域应急需求量的影响;应急调运方式由调运时间和成本共同决定,在调运距离较近时,铁路、水路和管道的应急调运量差别不大,调运距离较远时,铁路和水运表现出较大的优势。根据研究结论,提出加快长三角地区成品油储备基地建设、完善成品油应急调运网络、建立联合储备和应急协调机制等政策建议。

关键词: 应急储备, 布局优化, 应急调运, 能源安全, 长三角地区

Abstract:

A comprehensive emergency response system for refined oil has not been established in the Yangtze River Delta of China, a region with a high consumption of refined oil. This lack of an emergency reserve response system results in a weak response ability to supply disruption. Based on the determination of reserve bases and division of emergency logistics channels we constructed a systematic logistics network of refined oil for emergency transportation. We applied gray forecasting modeling and multi-objective optimization modeling to the emergency reserve scales and emergency layout of refined oil in 2020 in the Yangtze River Delta. Results show that with the increase in warning levels, the overall reserve scale of refined oil gradually increased and the reserve scale of each base is largely affected by the coverage of demand cities and the emergency demand of the service area. Emergency scheduling methods, including railways, waterways and pipelines, are decided jointly by scheduling time and transportation costs. Specifically, when the transportation distance from reserve bases to demand cities is relatively short, the emergency scheduling volumes of railway, waterway and pipeline show little difference. When the transportation distance is relatively longer, railway and waterway have a greater advantage with larger emergency scheduling volumes of refined oil; the allocation by pipeline is smaller than railway and waterway. We propose that the Chinese government should promote the construction of reserve bases of refined oil in the Yangtze River Delta region and improve the emergency transportation network for refined oil. At the same time, we suggest that the joint reserve and emergency coordination mechanisms be established in the future.

Key words: emergency reserve, layout optimization, emergency scheduling, energy security, Yangtze River Delta