长三角地区成品油应急储备布局优化研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.07.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

长三角地区作为中国成品油消费量较高的区域,目前还没有建立完善的成品油应急储备体系,对成品油供应中断事件的响应能力较弱。本文在确定储备基地、划分应急调运渠道的基础上,建立了成品油应急运输网络,并应用灰色预测和多目标优化模型对2020年成品油应急储备规模与布局展开了研究。研究结果表明,随着预警等级的提高,总体储备规模逐渐增加,各储备基地储备规模受覆盖范围和服务区域应急需求量的影响;应急调运方式由调运时间和成本共同决定,在调运距离较近时,铁路、水路和管道的应急调运量差别不大,调运距离较远时,铁路和水运表现出较大的优势。根据研究结论,提出加快长三角地区成品油储备基地建设、完善成品油应急调运网络、建立联合储备和应急协调机制等政策建议。

关键词: 应急储备, 布局优化, 应急调运, 能源安全, 长三角地区

Abstract:

A comprehensive emergency response system for refined oil has not been established in the Yangtze River Delta of China, a region with a high consumption of refined oil. This lack of an emergency reserve response system results in a weak response ability to supply disruption. Based on the determination of reserve bases and division of emergency logistics channels we constructed a systematic logistics network of refined oil for emergency transportation. We applied gray forecasting modeling and multi-objective optimization modeling to the emergency reserve scales and emergency layout of refined oil in 2020 in the Yangtze River Delta. Results show that with the increase in warning levels, the overall reserve scale of refined oil gradually increased and the reserve scale of each base is largely affected by the coverage of demand cities and the emergency demand of the service area. Emergency scheduling methods, including railways, waterways and pipelines, are decided jointly by scheduling time and transportation costs. Specifically, when the transportation distance from reserve bases to demand cities is relatively short, the emergency scheduling volumes of railway, waterway and pipeline show little difference. When the transportation distance is relatively longer, railway and waterway have a greater advantage with larger emergency scheduling volumes of refined oil; the allocation by pipeline is smaller than railway and waterway. We propose that the Chinese government should promote the construction of reserve bases of refined oil in the Yangtze River Delta region and improve the emergency transportation network for refined oil. At the same time, we suggest that the joint reserve and emergency coordination mechanisms be established in the future.

Key words: emergency reserve, layout optimization, emergency scheduling, energy security, Yangtze River Delta

吕涛, 高剑, 王政. 长三角地区成品油应急储备布局优化研究[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(7): 1450-1458.

Tao LV, Jian GAO, Zheng WANG. Research on emergency reserves and layout of refined oil in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(7): 1450-1458.

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储备基地	所属省份	储备方式
舟山（舟山国家石油储备基地）	浙江	油罐式存储
宁波（镇海国家石油储备基地,大榭石化,镇海炼化）	浙江	油罐式存储
上海（上海石化、高桥石化）	上海	油罐式存储
南京（金陵石化、扬子石化）	江苏	油罐式存储
常州（金坛国家石油储备基地）	江苏	岩穴式存储
泰州（泰州石化）	江苏	油罐式存储
扬州（扬州石化）	江苏	油罐式存储
杭州（杭州石化）	浙江	油罐式存储
徐州（徐州石化）	江苏	油罐式存储
淮安（清江石化）	江苏	油罐式存储
连云港（连云港炼化）	江苏	油罐式存储

预警等级	含义	库存短缺天数/天	成品油储备量/万t
一般预警（IV级）	成品油库存低于10天需求	15-10=5	110.19
较重预警（III级）	成品油库存低于8天需求	15-8=7	154.27
严重预警（II级）	成品油库存低于6天需求	15-6=9	198.35
特别严重预警（I级）	成品油库存低于4天需求	15-4=11	242.42

编号	储备点	一般预警储存量	较重预警储存量	严重预警储存量	特别严重预警储存量
1	舟山	12.49	17.48	22.46	27.43
2	宁波	14.11	19.78	25.43	31.12
3	上海	13.84	19.35	24.88	30.40
4	杭州	13.18	18.42	23.70	28.96
5	南京	10.87	15.22	19.60	23.94
6	常州	10.88	15.26	19.61	23.97
7	泰州	10.91	15.26	19.58	23.96
8	扬州	10.87	15.24	19.61	23.95
9	徐州	4.42	6.18	7.97	9.70
10	淮安	4.42	6.20	7.96	9.75
11	连云港	4.20	5.88	7.54	9.24
储备总量		110.19	154.27	198.35	242.42

储备点运量/t	需求点
储备点运量/t	舟山	宁波	上海	嘉兴	台州	温州
舟山	8 510	—	—	—	—	—
		—	—	—	—	—
		海22 083	海40 911	海16 921	海17 403	海19 047
宁波	—	16 643	管23 357	—	管 0	管 200
	—		铁24 599	铁 711	铁 1 055	铁 2 789
	海 100		海24 463	海 409	海 854	海 2 503
上海	—	管 7 295	83 216	管 2 965	—	—
	—	铁 8 815		铁 3 741	铁 4 555	铁 6 302
	海8	海 8 237		海 2 943	海 4 145	海 5 531

储备点运量/t	需求点
储备点运量/t	南京	苏州	无锡	常州	镇江	南通	泰州	扬州
上海	铁 0	铁 331	铁 117	铁 0	铁 0	铁 0	铁 0	铁 0
上海	江 0	江 170	江 1	江 5	江 0	江 0	江 0	江 0
南京	20 849	管 8 215	管4 319	管2 467	管1 830	—	管1 304	管2 465
		铁10 079	铁6 036	铁3 809	铁2 523	铁6 314	铁2 671	铁3 045
		江 9 694	江5 740	江3 576	江2 719	江5 854	江2 364	江2 848
常州	管 5 218	管 9 506	管5 609	11 453	管2 132	—	管1 868	管1 560
	铁 6 428	铁 9 966	铁5 865		铁2 250	铁5 904	铁2 529	铁2 674
	江 6 424	江 9 847	江6 098		江2 298	江6 034	江2 531	江2 645
泰州	管 5 398	管 8 523	管4 933	管2 839	管1 682	—	8 369	管2 249
	铁 6 612	铁10 118	铁6 288	铁3 598	铁2 401	铁6 390		铁2 916
	江 6 349	江 9 795	江5 850	江3 384	江2 442	江6 183		江2 793
扬州	管 5 847	管 8 112	管4 493	管2 959	管2 083	—	管2 182	8 429
	铁 6 819	铁 9 902	铁5 887	铁3 755	铁2 731	铁6 169	铁2 826
	江 6 587	江 9 930	江5 887	江3 671	江2 482	江5 557	江2 391