中国能源进口贸易的持续期——基于生存分析法

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.07.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文基于生存分析法,利用CEPII-BACI数据库1995—2015年HS6分位的进口数据,研究了中国能源进口持续期的基本特征,并在此基础上对贸易持续期的影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明：中国能源产品进口持续期较短,均值和中位数分别为2.045年和1年,生存函数表现出负的时间依存性。同时,生存时间存在明显的“门槛效应”,生存时间一旦超过5年则贸易中断的可能性较小,因此应当注意针对贸易初期提供更多的政策支持。对于不同的产品类别和进口来源地区,能源产品进口持续期呈现一定的差异性,贸易政策的制定应该因地制宜。在贸易持续期的诸多影响因素中,双边距离、是否接壤等传统引力变量和政治环境、政治冲突等国家层面因素对进口持续期的影响显著,贸易历史、贸易段长度、产品单价、市场份额、初始额度等产品层面因素也对进口持续期产生显著影响,并且实证结果具有稳健性。最后,提出了加强基础设施建设、维护贸易关系、寻求长期稳定的贸易伙伴、参与全球能源治理等稳定能源供给的政策建议。

关键词: 能源进口, 持续期, 生存分析, 离散选择模型

Abstract:

Based on HS 6-digit data from the CEPII-BACI dataset from 1995 to 2015, the survival analysis method was used to study the basic characteristics of China’s energy import duration and factors affecting trade duration. The results showed that China's energy import duration was short, with a mean of 2.05 years and median of 1 year. There was negative duration dependence, but if a spell was able to survive more than 5 years it would face a very small probability of failure. Attention should be paid to providing more policy support during the early stages of trade. There were some differences in China’s energy import duration for different product categories and regions, so trade policy should be adapted to local conditions. Among influencing factors, traditional gravity variables such as distance and contiguity had significant negative and positive effects on China's energy import duration respectively. National level factors such as polity score and political conflict both had significant positive influences on import duration. Product level factors such as history, spell length, market share and initial value all had significant positive effects on import duration, but unit value had a negative effect on the import duration. We used different methods and samples so the results are robust and stable. In order to stabilize China's energy import, we propose policy suggestions that strength infrastructure construction, maintain trade relations, identify political risks, seek long-term and stable trade partners, and actively participate in global energy governance and cooperation.

Key words: energy imports, trade duration, survival analysis, discrete choice model

刘宏曼, 李星晨. 中国能源进口贸易的持续期——基于生存分析法[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(7): 1438-1449.

Hongman LIU, Xingchen LI. The duration of China's energy imports based on survival analysis[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(7): 1438-1449.

图/表 8

表1

表2

图1

表3

图2

图3

表4

表5

稳健性检验"

变量	不同样本相同Logit模型			相同样本Probit模型		相同样本Cloglog模型
变量	系数	边际效应	几率比	系数	边际效应	系数	边际效应
Dist	0.464***	0.049***	1.591***	0.249***	0.064***	0.264***	0.050***
	(0.125)	(0.013)	(0.199)	(0.079)	(0.020)	(0.095)	(0.018)
Contig	-0.564**	-0.060**	0.569**	-0.314**	-0.080**	-0.345*	-0.065*
	(0.243)	(0.026)	(0.138)	(0.158)	(0.040)	(0.191)	(0.036)
GDP_Mul	-0.034	-0.004	0.967	-0.012	-0.003	-0.006	-0.001
	(0.045)	(0.005)	(0.043)	(0.030)	(0.008)	(0.036)	(0.007)
FTA	0.673***	0.072***	1.960***	0.208*	0.053*	0.274*	0.052*
	(0.178)	(0.019)	(0.349)	(0.115)	(0.029)	(0.145)	(0.027)
Polity	-0.019	-0.002	0.981	-0.021**	-0.005**	-0.027***	-0.005***
	(0.012)	(0.001)	(0.012)	(0.008)	(0.002)	(0.010)	(0.002)
Conflict	-0.113***	-0.012***	0.893***	-0.027*	-0.007*	-0.031	-0.006
	(0.034)	(0.004)	(0.030)	(0.015)	(0.004)	(0.019)	(0.004)
History	-0.332***	-0.035***	0.717***	-0.227***	-0.058***	-0.257***	-0.049***
	(0.124)	(0.013)	(0.089)	(0.076)	(0.019)	(0.093)	(0.017)
Length	-0.214***	-0.023***	0.807***	-0.114***	-0.029***	-0.228***	-0.043***
	(0.021)	(0.002)	(0.017)	(0.015)	(0.004)	(0.025)	(0.005)
UV	0.074**	0.008**	1.077**	0.067***	0.017***	0.081***	0.015***
	(0.034)	(0.004)	(0.036)	(0.022)	(0.005)	(0.026)	(0.005)
IV	-0.078***	-0.008***	0.925***	-0.032**	-0.008**	-0.042**	-0.008**
	(0.022)	(0.002)	(0.020)	(0.014)	(0.004)	(0.018)	(0.003)
TI	-0.041**	-0.004**	0.959**	-0.032**	-0.008**	-0.038**	-0.007**
	(0.021)	(0.002)	(0.020)	(0.013)	(0.003)	(0.015)	(0.003)
TE	-0.114***	-0.012***	0.892***	-0.049***	-0.012***	-0.049**	-0.009**
	(0.026)	(0.003)	(0.024)	(0.017)	(0.004)	(0.021)	(0.004)
Share	-1.426***	-0.152***	0.240***	-0.719***	-0.184***	-0.782***	-0.148***
	(0.211)	(0.022)	(0.051)	(0.137)	(0.035)	(0.170)	(0.032)
CNum	-0.711***	-0.076***	0.491***	-0.382***	-0.098***	-0.431***	-0.082***
	(0.079)	(0.008)	(0.039)	(0.053)	(0.013)	(0.065)	(0.012)
REGION	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
PRODUCT	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
YEAR	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N	5920	5920	5920	3535	3535	3535	3535
ρ	0.111	0.111	0.111	0.142	0.142	0.085	0.085

表5

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地区	国家范围	特点
中东和非洲	阿尔及利亚、安哥拉、巴林、刚果、埃及、赤道几内亚、苏丹、加蓬、伊朗、伊拉克、科威特、利比亚、尼日利亚、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、南非、阿联酋、也门	最重要的石油产区,运输主要依靠通过马六甲海峡的海上路线,中国历来注重发展与非洲国家的战略关系,和其中的海湾国家也保持了良好的贸易合作
欧洲及欧亚大陆	哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、俄罗斯、挪威、荷兰、蒙古	主要的天然气进口来源地,产品主要依靠陆路运输并且近年来建设了大量油气运输管道
亚太地区	澳大利亚、朝鲜、印度尼西亚、日本、马来西亚、韩国、新加坡、泰国、越南	主要的煤炭产区,产品的运输最为便利,和中国的经贸合作最为活跃
美洲地区	阿根廷、巴西、厄瓜多尔、加拿大、哥伦比亚、美国、委内瑞拉	重要的石油产区,其地理位置最为独立,这一地区与中国的贸易联系也较为紧密

国家层面的解释变量			产品层面的解释变量
变量名	含义	预期符号	变量名	含义	预期符号
Dist	双边地理距离	+	UV	产品单价	+
Contig	是否接壤	-	IV	贸易初始额	-
GDP_Mul	双边GDP乘积	-	History	此前是否有贸易段	-
FTA	是否FTA成员	-	Length	当前贸易段的长度	-
Polity	政体指数得分	-	TE	细分产品总出口额	-
Conflict	国内外政治冲突	-	TI	细分产品中国总进口额	-
			Share	市场份额	-
			CNum	出口国家数	-

			时间		生存率
样本	观测值数	贸易段数	平均数	中位数	1年	5年	10年
样本总体	4 007	1 013	2.045	1	0.396	0.060	0.015
分产品
煤	713	206	1.777	1	0.315	0.039	0.005
石油	2 329	530	2.134	1	0.406	0.070	0.017
天然气	965	277	2.076	2	0.437	0.058	0.018
分地区
中东及非洲	1 148	299	2.084	1	0.418	0.067	0.013
欧洲及欧亚大陆	615	165	1.976	1	0.363	0.055	0.012
亚太地区	1 510	384	2.099	1	0.393	0.063	0.016
美洲地区	734	165	1.921	1	0.394	0.049	0.018

变量	回归系数	边际效应	几率比
Dist	0.415***	0.062***	1.514***
	(0.130)	(0.019)	(0.197)
Contig	-0.497*	-0.074*	0.609*
	(0.260)	(0.038)	(0.158)
GDP_Mul	-0.018	-0.003	0.983
	(0.049)	(0.007)	(0.048)
FTA	0.350*	0.052*	1.419*
	(0.195)	(0.029)	(0.276)
Polity	-0.034**	-0.005**	0.967**
	(0.014)	(0.002)	(0.013)
Conflict	-0.044*	-0.007*	0.957*
	(0.025)	(0.004)	(0.024)
History	-0.358***	-0.053***	0.699***
	(0.128)	(0.019)	(0.089)
Length	-0.234***	-0.035***	0.792***
	(0.030)	(0.004)	(0.023)
UV	0.112***	0.017***	1.118***
	(0.036)	(0.005)	(0.040)
IV	-0.056**	-0.008**	0.946**
	(0.024)	(0.004)	(0.023)
TI	-0.054**	-0.008**	0.948**
	(0.022)	(0.003)	(0.021)
TE	-0.074***	-0.011***	0.928***
	(0.029)	(0.004)	(0.027)
Share	-1.154***	-0.171***	0.315***
	(0.235)	(0.034)	(0.074)
CNum	-0.628***	-0.093***	0.534***
REGION PRODUCT YEAR	(0.090) Yes Yes Yes	(0.013) Yes Yes Yes	(0.048) Yes Yes Yes
N	3 535	3 535	3 535
ρ	0.103	0.103	0.103