化肥投入效率测度及归因——来自20个玉米生产省份的面板证据

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.07.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在保障粮食安全的现实背景下,如何通过化肥的减量施用来保证粮食生产效率不变乃至有所提高是本文研究的目的。本文基于中国20个玉米生产省份2004—2015年的面板数据,运用超越对数函数模型测算出全国以及各省玉米生产中的化肥投入效率,并利用Tobit模型进一步对全国、东、中、西部地区化肥投入效率影响因素进行分析比较,研究结果表明：全国玉米生产效率为0.754,化肥投入效率均值为0.448,节肥潜力巨大;中国玉米种植规模、化肥价格、农业补贴与玉米化肥投入效率显著正相关,而农业保护政策与玉米化肥投入效率显著负相关。分区域而言,东部地区化肥价格与化肥投入效率正相关,玉米种植规模与化肥投入效率负相关;中部地区化肥价格、农业补贴与化肥投入效率正相关,非农劳动就业率与化肥投入效率负相关;西部地区化肥价格与玉米化肥投入效率正相关,农业保护政策与玉米化肥投入效率负相关。

关键词: 玉米生产, 超越对数函数, 化肥投入效率, 区域差异化

Abstract:

In order to ensure the grain production efficiency keep unchanged and even improve it, we should reduce application of chemical fertilize. How to achieve this goal is this article’s main purpose. Under the realistic background of ensuring food security, we used panel data of 20 corn producing provinces in China from 2004 to 2015, and adopted a stochastic frontier trans-log production function to estimate the corn chemical fertilizer input efficiency of the whole nation and 20 corn producing provinces. And we used a Tobit model to identify the determinants of chemical fertilizer input efficiency in national, eastern, middle and western regions. The result shows that: the average of national corn production efficiency was 0.754, and the average of fertilizer input efficiency was 0.448.So the potential for fertilizer saving is great. The national corn production efficiency presented the downward trend. Before 2013, the fertilizer input efficiency also presented the upward trend, but it had fallen after 2014. The corn planting scale, the fertilizer price, the agricultural subsidies and the corn fertilizer input efficiency have positive correlations. And the agricultural environmental protection policy have a significantly a negative correlation. From the regional perspective, in the eastern region the fertilizer price and the corn fertilizer input efficiency has a positive correlation, the corn planting scale and the corn fertilizer input efficiency has a negative correlation. In middle region, the fertilizer price, the agricultural subsidies and the corn fertilizer input efficiency have positive correlations. Non-agricultural labor employment rate and the corn fertilizer input efficiency have a negative correlation. In western region, the fertilizer price and the corn fertilizer input efficiency has a positive correlation. The agricultural environmental protection policy and the corn fertilizer input efficiency has a negative correlation.

Key words: corn production, stochastic frontier trans-log production function, chemical fertilizer input efficiency, regional differentiation

张永强, 蒲晨曦, 王珧, 王荣, 彭有幸. 化肥投入效率测度及归因——来自20个玉米生产省份的面板证据[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(7): 1333-1343.

Yongqiang ZHANG, Chenxi PU, Yao WANG, Rong WANG, Youxing PENG. The efficiency estimation of fertilizer input and attribution—— panel evidence from 20 corn producing provinces[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(7): 1333-1343.

图/表 8

图1

表1

函数设定的假设检验"

检验	零假设：H₀	LIF	LR	自由度K	$X 1 - 0.05 2 (K)$	结果
检验1：不选择随机前沿生产函数	$H 0 : r = 0$	182.51	141.34	3	7.05	拒绝
检验2：采用C-D生产函数	H₀：二次项系数全为零	248.82	8.70	3	7.05	拒绝
检验3：不存在技术变化	$H 0 : β T$ = $β TT$ = $β TK = β TL$ =0	246.28	21.78	3	7.05	拒绝
检验4：技术变化不是希克斯中性	$H 0 : β TK = β TL = 0$	253.55	-0.76	3	7.05	接受
检验5：技术效率不随时间变化	$H 0 : η = 0$	246.72	12.90	2	5.14	拒绝

表1

表2

图2

图3

表3

2004—2015年中国玉米生产省份化肥投入效率值"

年份	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	均值
河北	0.32	0.34	0.33	0.30	0.29	0.30	0.34	0.37	0.44	0.47	0.45	0.43	0.36
山西	0.64	0.64	0.61	0.58	0.64	0.62	0.65	0.68	0.70	0.71	0.69	0.67	0.65
内蒙古	0.43	0.45	0.28	0.28	0.37	0.35	0.27	0.37	0.42	0.38	0.29	0.22	0.34
辽宁	0.32	0.32	0.29	0.27	0.27	0.24	0.28	0.33	0.42	0.44	0.35	0.27	0.32
吉林	0.58	0.50	0.41	0.36	0.35	0.28	0.35	0.45	0.57	0.57	0.55	0.48	0.45
黑龙江	0.09	0.12	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.07	0.06	0.10	0.13	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.09
江苏	0.33	0.34	0.29	0.26	0.28	0.26	0.33	0.38	0.45	0.47	0.44	0.42	0.35
安徽	0.39	0.49	0.45	0.41	0.45	0.42	0.43	0.44	0.52	0.45	0.42	0.31	0.43
山东	0.51	0.54	0.47	0.47	0.41	0.35	0.37	0.44	0.52	0.55	0.50	0.46	0.47
河南	0.47	0.47	0.41	0.35	0.37	0.40	0.41	0.45	0.51	0.50	0.46	0.36	0.43
湖北	0.48	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.39	0.37	0.40	0.43	0.50	0.47	0.45	0.41	0.43
广西	0.30	0.31	0.30	0.32	0.30	0.29	0.33	0.37	0.43	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34
重庆	0.58	0.60	0.59	0.58	0.58	0.56	0.57	0.59	0.62	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.59
四川	0.51	0.53	0.43	0.39	0.47	0.42	0.47	0.51	0.56	0.57	0.56	0.54	0.50
贵州	0.38	0.40	0.37	0.39	0.39	0.41	0.41	0.44	0.48	0.49	0.48	0.46	0.43
云南	0.46	0.47	0.45	0.44	0.44	0.42	0.44	0.44	0.50	0.50	0.49	0.47	0.46
陕西	0.45	0.44	0.42	0.42	0.41	0.36	0.37	0.43	0.49	0.51	0.49	0.47	0.44
甘肃	0.73	0.75	0.74	0.74	0.76	0.74	0.75	0.77	0.79	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.76
宁夏	0.64	0.61	0.59	0.58	0.62	0.61	0.61	0.63	0.69	0.64	0.62	0.58	0.62
新疆	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.88	0.90	0.89	0.92	0.89	0.93	0.91	0.89	0.61	0.88
均值	0.48	0.48	0.44	0.42	0.44	0.42	0.44	0.48	0.53	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.47
全国	0.47	0.48	0.42	0.40	0.41	0.39	0.41	0.45	0.52	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.45
东部	0.36	0.37	0.34	0.32	0.31	0.29	0.33	0.38	0.45	0.47	0.43	0.39	0.37
中部	0.44	0.45	0.38	0.35	0.38	0.36	0.37	0.42	0.48	0.46	0.42	0.36	0.40
西部	0.58	0.59	0.56	0.55	0.57	0.55	0.57	0.59	0.63	0.63	0.61	0.56	0.58

表3

表4

表5

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	普通OLS估计		极大似然估计
变量	系数值	标准误	系数值	标准误
lnF_it	-0.650	1.657	-1.361	0.838
lnK_it	-3.310^***	0.794	1.091	0.836
lnL_it	1.276^***	0.539	-0.424	0.564
lnT	0.015	0.064	0.043	0.042
[lnF_it]²	-0.285	0.390	-0.113	0.276
[lnK_it]²	0.508^***	0.120	0.038	0.108
[lnL_it]²	-0.156^***	0.057	-0.021	0.061
[lnT]²	-0.002^***	0.001	-0.001^***	0.001
lnF_it×lnK_it	0.121	0.351	-0.108	0.270
lnF_it×lnL_it	0.401^***	0.177	0.507^***	0.182
lnL_it×lnK_it	-0.264^***	0.087	-0.186^***	0.099
T×lnF_it	-0.012	0.023	-0.006	0.016
T×lnK_it	-0.014	0.012	0.003	0.010
T×lnL_it	0.025^***	0.009	-0.002	0.007
常数值	10.857^***	2.387	6.345^**	1.311
σ²	0.015		0.026 365 5^***	0.004
γ			0.776 188 0^***	14.428
似然函数值	0.015		253.177
似然比检验单侧值			141.342

变量	参数估计值	标准差	T值
非农就业率	-0.147	0.115	-1.270
玉米种植规模	0.009^*	0.005	1.720
农户收入水平	0.173E-04	0.113E-04	1.520
化肥价格	0.055^***	0.015	3.760
农业环保政策	-0.031^**	0.014	-2.240
农业补贴	0.408E-12^***	0.120E-12	3.400
机械费用	-0.130E-04	0.815E-04	-0.160
常数项	0.308^***	0.092	3.360
σ_μ	0.160^***	0.027	5.890
σ_ε	0.051^***	0.002	20.850
γ	90.870
似然比检验	110.660

变量	东部	中部	西部
常数项	0.550^*** （0.176）	0.164 （1.430）	0.419^*** （0.138）
非农就业率	-0.014 （0.189）	-0.463^* （0.243）	-0.054 （0.128）
玉米种植规模	-0.086^*** （0.016）	0.010 （-0.760）	-0.007 （0.014）
农户收入水平	0.214E-04 （0.209E-04）	0.140E-04 （1.090）	-0.190E-04 （0.239E-04）
化肥价格	0.006^*** （0.033）	0.025^*** （3.530）	0.068^** （0.021）
农业环保政策	-0.033 （-1.100）	0.025 （-1.230）	-0.022^** （0.018）
农业补贴	0.240E-12 （0.209E-12）	0.216E-12^*** （0.582E-12）	0.479E-12 （0.211E-12）
机械费用	0.002 （6.000E-4）	0.900E-04 （0.110）	0.000 （4.000E-4）