开封城市家庭日常出行碳排放空间分异研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.06.20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在气候变化和快速城镇化的背景下可持续交通问题日益受到重视。本文借助大样本调查数据和高分辨率遥感影像,以城市快速扩张的典型中小城市河南开封市为研究区域,采用ESDA、GWR等空间统计和分析方法探索城市内部家庭出行碳排放空间差异及影响因素。结果表明：① 开封市家庭出行碳排放的高值集聚区大多分布于城市的外圈层,在一定程度上验证了城市蔓延对居民出行碳排放增加的驱动效应;② 家庭出行碳排放的局部空间差异反映出城市快速扩张区域新建商品房小区职住分离、公共服务供给与城市发展不匹配的现象,以及城市发展缓慢区域大型购物场所等便民服务设施缺失等问题;③ 家庭出行碳排放的不均衡性明显,但收入水平并非决定因素,小汽车的拥有量、出行距离、出行频率以及机动车出行比重对其有显著的正向影响,其中教育出行距离比职住距离影响更甚,说明伴随着家庭对教育的不断重视,优质教育资源的不均衡发展有待改善;④ 除男主人出行频率对出行碳排放的影响空间破碎化程度较高外,其余影响因素的作用强度均明显存在与城市发展的主要方向相一致的东西带状渐变的空间分布规律。

关键词: 出行碳排放, 分异机制, 标准家庭, GWR, 影响因素, 开封市

Abstract:

In the context of global warming and rapid urbanization, sustainable traffic problems are receiving more attention. We took the city of Kaifeng as a case study as it is a typical small to medium-sized city in China. Using large sample survey data, high-resolution remote sensing images, spatial autocorrelation analysis, standard deviation ellipse analysis and geographical weighted regression we studied the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of daily travel carbon emissions. We found that high-value agglomeration areas of household travel carbon emissions were observed in new urban development zones. Built-up areas are expanding faster in the outer layers of the city, and to some extent validated the driving effect of urban sprawl on the increasing carbon emissions of residents. Spatial differences in household travel carbon emissions reflected living separation phenomenon and was serious in the new commercial housing community in rapid urban expansion areas. Public service supply did not match urban development and slow development areas lack convenient service facilities such as one-stop shopping places. Imbalance in family travel carbon emissions is significant, but income is not a determining factor and travel to places of education has even more influence than the distance to employment. The lagging and uneven development of education resources is needed to improve the family's constant attention to education. The coefficient of the male host job-live distance has a higher space fragmentation degree. The effect strength of other factors is obvious in the spatial distribution pattern of zonal gradients, consistent with the main direction of urban development.

Key words: travel carbon emission, differentiation mechanism, standard family, GWR, influencing factors, Kaifeng City

荣培君, 张丽君, 刘荣增, 秦耀辰, 郑智成. 开封城市家庭日常出行碳排放空间分异研究[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(6): 1307-1318.

Peijun RONG, Lijun ZHANG, Rongzeng LIU, Yaochen QIN, Zhicheng ZHENG. The spatial diversity of household daily travel carbon emissions in Kaifeng[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(6): 1307-1318.

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出行类别	比重	极小值	极大值	均值	标准差	变异系数	零碳比重
通勤	67.32	0.35	271.47	15.65	20.17	1.29	19.10
上下学	20.79	0.14	73.80	5.54	7.06	1.27	34.58
购物	5.98	0.01	22.86	1.56	2.51	1.61	44.07
娱乐	5.91	0.01	44.28	2.31	4.36	1.89	52.56
总出行	100	0.02	342.91	19.86	23.17	1.17	8.12

碳排放种类	Moran’s I	Z(I)	P(I)
总交通碳排放	0.073 3	1.998 5	0.033 6
家庭每周通勤碳排放	0.075 3	2.037 9	0.021 1
孩子上下学出行碳排放	0.062 4	6.181 9	0.000 0
家庭购物出行碳排放	0.051 5	5.096 0	0.000 0
家庭娱乐出行碳排放	0.007 1	0.767 4	0.442 8

解释变量	变量说明	单位	系数	标准误	显著性
（常量）			-17.025	1.686	0.000
男主人职住距离（x₁）	住所距离男主人工作地点的距离	km	0.591	0.070	0.000
男主人往返次数（x₂）	家庭男主人每天上下班往返的次数	次	5.531	0.821	0.003
女主人职住距离（x₃）	住所距离女主人工作地点的距离	km	1.765	0.041	0.000
女主人往返次数（x₄）	家庭女主人每天上下班往返的次数	次	2.681	0.785	0.011
学住距离（x₅）	住所距孩子学校的距离	km	2.234	0.145	0.000
上学往返次数（x₆）	家里学龄孩子每天上下学往返的次数	次	2.597	0.591	0.000
小汽车数量（x₇）	同一住所家庭成员所拥有小汽车数量	辆	2.285	1.316	0.013
机动出行概率（x₈）	每周机动车出行的次数占总出行次数的比例	%	6.225	2.515	0.013
调整的R² 0.429
F检验值 130.896	（sig.=0.000）