中原经济区城镇居民消费间接碳排放时空格局及其影响因素

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.06.19

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从消费视角研究城镇居民消费间接碳排放的历史增长、空间分异规律及影响因素,对发展低碳城市和居民合理消费方式的形成具有重要的意义。本文以中原经济区为例,运用投入产出法测算2002—2014年城镇居民消费间接碳排放,通过空间自相关和空间面板模型分析其空间关联特征及影响因素,得到以下结论：①2002—2014年,城镇居民消费间接碳排放呈波动上升的趋势,“衣、食、住”等生存型消费碳排放增长速度较快,“交通、教育娱乐、医疗保健”等发展型消费碳排放增长速度较慢;②从空间关联格局来看,城镇居民消费人均碳排放以HH区和LL区的空间正相关类型为主;③空间杜宾模型估计结果表明,居民收入水平、产业结构和消费结构是影响该区城镇居民消费间接碳排放的主要因素,另外,消费结构和消费意识两个因素具有明显的空间溢出效应。

关键词: 居民消费间接碳排放, 时空格局, 影响因素, STIRPAT模型, 空间面板模型, 中原经济区

Abstract:

The Central Plains Economic Region is undergoing rapid urbanization and industrialization. Living standards and the consumption demands of residents will need to be improved for some time, but indirect carbon emissions from consumption have rigid requirements. From the perspective of consumption, little research has explored historical growth, spatial heterogeneity and factors affecting indirect carbon emissions from urban residential consumption. Understanding these patterns is significant to the development of low carbon cities and formation of reasonable consumption patterns. Here, we calculated the indirect carbon emissions of urban residential consumption in the Central Plains Economic Region using an input-output model, spatial self-correlation and spatial panel modeling. We found that indirect carbon emissions increased from 2002 to 2014. From the consumption structure, the carbon emissions from survival consumption (clothing, food and living) grew faster; development consumption (traffic, education, entertainment and healthcare) grew slower. From spatial association patterns, the spatial correlation type of per capita carbon emissions from urban residential consumption is mainly composed of HH and LL from 2002 to 2014. Spatial Durbin model estimation results show that income level, consumption structure, industrial structure and consumption consciousness are the main influencers of indirect residential carbon emissions. Factors such as consumption consciousness and consumption structure have spatial spillover effects.

Key words: indirect carbon emissions, temporal-spatial patterns, influence factors, STIRPAT Model, Spatial Panel Model, Central Plains Economic Region

史琴琴, 鲁丰先, 陈海, 张丽君, 武荣伟, 梁小英. 中原经济区城镇居民消费间接碳排放时空格局及其影响因素[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(6): 1297-1306.

Qinqin SHI, Fengxian LU, Hai CHEN, Lijun ZHANG, Rongwei WU, Xiaoying LIANG. Temporal-spatial patterns and factors affecting indirect carbon emissions from urban consumption in the Central Plains Economic Region[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(6): 1297-1306.

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消费类别	对应行业
食品	农、林、牧、渔业+食品制造及烟草加工业
衣着	纺织业+服装皮革羽绒及其他纤维制品制造业
家庭设备用品及服务	木材加工及家具制造业+金属制品业+电气机械及器材制造业
医疗保健	通用、专用设备制造业+化学工业
交通和通信	石油加工及炼焦业+交通运输设备制造业+电子及通信设备制造业+交通运输、仓储和邮政业
教育文化娱乐服务	造纸印刷及文教用品制造业+仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业
居住	煤炭开采和洗选业+石油和天然气开采业+非金属矿物制品业+电力及蒸汽热水生产和供应业+煤气生产和供应业+自来水的生产和供应业+建筑业
杂项商品和服务	批发和零售业、住宿和餐饮业+其他行业

	年份	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
碳排	Moran's I	0.15	0.09	0.10	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.15	-0.15
放量	z	1.97	1.20	1.30	0.82	0.45	0.59	0.15	-0.29	-0.35	-0.32	-0.55	-1.19	-1.20
	p	0.04	0.13	0.11	0.20	0.31	0.27	0.41	0.41	0.37	0.40	0.31	0.11	0.10
人均	Moran's I	0.20	0.18	0.19	0.21	0.22	0.22	0.20	0.19	0.19	0.24	0.22	0.23	0.23
碳排	z	2.70	2.08	2.21	2.12	2.42	2.28	2.30	2.18	2.07	2.52	2.52	2.55	2.57
放量	p	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.02

变量	SDM		边际效应
	弹性系数		直接效应		间接效应
	系数值	t值	效应值	t值	效应值	t值
常数项	5.521***	4.350
lnA	0.528***	3.540	0.528***	3.780	0.044	0.160
lnP	-0.002	-0.050	0.001	0.030	0.041	0.170
lnT	-0.056	-0.870	-0.061	-1.020	-0.069	-0.490
lnIP	0.233***	2.720	0.223***	2.740	-0.084	-0.400
lnCS	-0.880***	-9.100	-0.947***	-9.720	-0.838***	-2.600
lnCC	0.238	0.370	-0.230	-0.390	-5.397***	-2.830
Wln(A)	-0.283	-1.570
Wln(P)	0.016	0.140
Wln(T)	0.005	0.060
Wln(IP)	-0.175	-1.460
Wln(CS)	0.132	0.810
Wln(CC)	-2.607**	-2.430
ρ	0.580	12.930
R²	0.462
Observations	390