基于物质流和生命周期分析的石油行业碳排放

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.06.18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

国内关于石油生命周期内的碳排放的研究主要集中在石油制品的消费环节,不能真实地反映石油流动生命周期内的碳排放。为了探寻石油生命周期内真实碳排放以及未来发展趋势,本文结合了物质流分析（Material flow analysis,MFA）和生命周期评估（Life Cycle Assessment,LCA）方法,建立了石油生命周期内碳元素流动模型。以国内某大型炼化企业为例,计算了各个环节的隐含碳排放和石油燃烧碳排放量,分析了影响隐含碳排放的关键影响因素,同时,设计了四种不同的情景,分别预测了2015—2050年间中国石油生命周期内的隐含碳排放发展和变化趋势。研究结果表明：①在石油生命周期内,每吨石油在生命周期总碳排放量约为670kg（约折合CO₂ 排放量为2457kg）,其中隐含碳占总碳排放量的23%;②开采环节和炼化环节隐含碳排放分别占隐含碳总量的46%和54%,其中开采环节主要隐含碳排放来自天然气消耗和电力的消耗,分别占总量的47%和30%,炼化环节的隐含碳排放主要来自焦炭燃烧,占总量的46%;③在消费环节中,汽油、柴油和煤油在交通运输业中的消耗量最大,分别占各自总量的42%、53%和80%。提高石油行业能源利用效率和优化能源消费结构是实现国家2030年碳排放达到峰值目标的有效途径。

关键词: 炼化企业, 石油行业, 物质流分析, 生命周期分析, 碳流动, 隐含碳排放, 中国

Abstract:

Research in China on carbon emissions throughout the petroleum life cycle has mainly focused on the consumption of petroleum products, which cannot truly reflect carbon emissions. In order to explore development trends of carbon emissions in the petroleum life cycle, we establish the carbon flow model throughout the petroleum life cycle combining material flow analysis (MFA) and life cycle assessment (LCA). Taking a large-scale domestic refining and petrochemical enterprise as an example, hidden carbon emissions and carbon emissions from petroleum combustion are calculated, and factors influencing embodied carbon emissions are analyzed. Four scenarios were developed to predict the hidden carbon emission trend for China’s petroleum sectors from 2015-2050. The results show that the total carbon emission per ton of oil is about 670 kg (equal to CO₂ emission of 2457 kg) in the petroleum life cycle, of which hidden carbon accounts for 23% of total carbon emissions. Exploitation and refining processes account for 46% and 54% of the total hidden carbon, respectively. In the exploitation processes, embodied carbon emissions mainly come from natural gas consumption and electricity consumption, accounting for 47% and 30% of the total, respectively. The embodied carbon emissions of refining processes are mainly from coke combustion, accounting for 46% of the total. In the consumption processes, the consumption of gasoline, diesel and kerosene in the transportation industry is the largest, accounting for 42%, 53% and 80% of the total, respectively. Improving the energy efficiency of the petroleum sector and optimizing energy consumption structure is an effective way to achieve a national carbon emission peak by 2030.

Key words: refining and chemical enterprises, petroleum industry, material flow analysis, life cycle assessment, carbon flow, embodied carbon emission, China

吴明, 姜国强, 贾冯睿, 刘广鑫, 岳强. 基于物质流和生命周期分析的石油行业碳排放[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(6): 1287-1296.

Ming WU, Guoqiang JIANG, Fengrui JIA, Guangxin LIU, Qiang YUE. Carbon emissions from the petroleum industry based on the analysis of material flow and life cycle[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(6): 1287-1296.

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能源类型	折标准煤系数 /(kgec/kg)	净发热量 /(TJ/Gg)	碳排放因子 /(kg/GJ)	碳排放系数 /(kgC/kg)
原油	1.428 6	41.816 6	20.0	0.836 3
汽油	1.471 4	43.069 3	19.1	0.822 6
煤油	1.471 4	43.069 3	19.6	0.844 2
柴油	1.457 1	42.650 8	20.2	0.861 5
液化石油气	1.714 3	50.179 3	17.2	0.863 1
其他石油制品	1.200 0	35.125 2	20.0	0.702 5
3.5MPa蒸汽	0.125 7	3.679 4	-	-
1.0MPa蒸汽	0.108 6	3.178 8	-	-
燃料油	1.428 6	41.816 6	21.1	0.882 3
凝结水	0.010 9	0.319 1	-	-

	2015—2020年	2020—2025年	2025—2030年	2030—2035年	2035—2040年	2040—2045年	2045—2050年
情景1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
情景2	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
情景3	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
情景4	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

	2015—2020年	2020—2025年	2025—2030年	2030—2035年	2035—2040年	2040—2045年	2045—2050年
情景1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
情景2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
情景3	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
情景4	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

行业类别	汽油	煤油	柴油
农业	9.51	0.10	14.87
工业	8.98	13.49	23.86
能源生产供应业	0.45	0.12	0.73
建筑业	0.12	2.09	3.85
交通运输业	49.03	71.80	90.76
服务业	2.67	0.30	1.54
其他行业	21.67	1.24	26.12
居民生活	24.64	0.06	9.36
总计	117.07	89.20	171.09

	优化技术	备注
开采环节	聚合物驱油技术	适合聚合物驱的条件通常是油层温度在45~70℃,地层水矿化度为（1 603~30 435）mg/L,其中二价阳离子质量浓度为（7~738）mg/L。原油黏度为10~100mPa·s时,聚合物驱油采收率提高幅度较大。一般来说,聚合物驱油技术适用于非均质砂岩油田。
开采环节	三元复合体系驱油技术	三元复合体系驱油是指在注入水中加入低浓度的表面活性剂、碱和聚合物的复合体系驱油的一种提高原油采收率的方法。矿场试验表明,三元复合驱油技术可比水驱油技术提高20%以上的原油采收率。
炼化环节	板式空冷技术	适用于催化裂化、气体分馏、常减压蒸馏等多套装置,尤其适用于设备使用时间较长,设备落后老化,系统压降较大的情况。与湿冷、空冷相比,该技术可降低电耗量65%左右,同时降低软化水耗量近90%,是技术水平处于国内领先地位的专利技术。
炼化环节	装置间热联合与热供料技术	适用于炼化企业的上下游两套装置（比如催化裂化和气体分离装置）,或者多套装置作为一个整体（比如在常减压、催化、加氢、延迟焦化、溶脱装置之间实行热联合和热供料）。炼油装置热联合及热供料投用后,实际降低炼油能耗1.85kgec/t。