资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 1209-1221.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.06.11

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西藏自治区水土资源承载力监测预警研究

高洁1,3(), 刘玉洁1,2(), 封志明1,4, 潘韬1,2, 杨艳昭1,4, 张皓1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    3. 甘肃农业大学管理学院,兰州 610070
    4. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2017-10-15 修回日期:2018-04-04 出版日期:2018-06-25 发布日期:2018-06-22
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:高洁,女,四川成都人,硕士生,研究方向为西部地区资源环境承载力。E-mail: 623779830@qq.com

  • 基金资助:
    西藏重大科技专项(Z2016C01G01);国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0503504);中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2016049)

Research on monitoring and early warning of land and water resources carrying capacity in the Tibet Autonomous Region

Jie GAO1,3(), Yujie LIU1,2(), Zhiming FENG1,4, Tao PAN1,2, Yanzhao YANG1,4, Hao ZHANG1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    3. College of Management, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 610070, China
    4. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2017-10-15 Revised:2018-04-04 Online:2018-06-25 Published:2018-06-22

摘要:

水土资源是自然资源的重要组成部分,其对经济社会发展的承载能力是衡量人地关系协调程度和区域可持续发展水平的重要标尺。开展水土资源承载力监测预警研究,可以为有效调控区域资源环境压力提供科技支撑。本文以西藏自治区为例,首先兼顾资源、环境和生态属性,构建包括水资源、水环境、生产性用地及生态用地在内的区域水土资源承载力监测预警指标体系,然后基于国际、国家、行业标准、规定或相关研究结果,率定不同指标的关键阈值,进而从高到低依次划分出红色、橙色、黄色三个预警等级,在此基础上选取2005—2014年作为研究时段,利用层次分析法和专家打分法确定指标权重,对构建的西藏自治区水土资源承载力监测预警指标体系进行实证分析。研究发现:水功能区水质达标率、人均粮食产量、人均耕地面积和草地退化程度等指标的变化对区域水土资源承载力影响较为明显,需加强应对和调控措施;区域水土资源综合承载力10年间呈上升趋势,由橙色预警区间降至蓝色预警区间,西藏自治区水土资源承载状况有所好转。

关键词: 水土资源承载力, 监测预警, 指标体系, 西藏自治区

Abstract:

Water and land resources are indispensable natural resources, whose carrying capacity for economic and social development is an important measure of the degree of coordination between society, land and regional sustainable development. Research on the surveillance and warning of water-land resources carrying capacity provides technical support for controlling regional resource environmental pressures. Under the case study of Tibet, taking into account resource, environmental and ecological attributes, we select key indicators to build a monitoring and early warning index system of regional water and land resources carrying capacity. The system includes water resources, water environment, productive land and ecological land. Based on international, national and industry standards, regulations and research, the key thresholds for different indicators are determined. We divided three warning levels into high to low as red, orange and yellow. From 2005 to 2014, using analytic hierarchy processes and expert scoring of the index system we found that indicators such as water quality compliance rate, per capita grain yield, per capita arable land area and grassland degradation degree significantly impact the regional water resource carrying capacity. Land resources need to be strengthened. The comprehensive carrying capacity of regional water and land resources has increased. The orange warning interval has down to the blue warning interval, meaning that regional water and land resources have improved.

Key words: water-land resources carrying capacity, the surveillance and warning, index system, Tibet Autonomous Region