资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 1138-1149.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.06.05

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基于社会网络视角的土地整治重大项目实施风险识别与评价方法

王温鑫1(), 金晓斌1,2(), 杨晓艳3, 项晓敏1, 刘晶1, 周寅康1,2   

  1. 1. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210023
    2. 国土资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室,南京 210023
    3. 国土资源部土地整治中心,北京 100035
  • 收稿日期:2017-11-10 修回日期:2018-01-10 出版日期:2018-06-25 发布日期:2018-06-22
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:王温鑫,女,福建宁德人,硕士生,主要研究方向为土地利用与规划。E-mail:wency.wang@qq.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAD06B02)

Risk identification and evaluation of major land consolidation projects based on social networks

Wenxin WANG1(), Xiaobin JIN1,2(), Xiaoyan YANG3, Xiaomin XIANG1, Jing LIU1, Yinkang ZHOU1,2   

  1. 1. School of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Land and Resources, Nanjing 210023, China
    3. Centre of Land Consolidation, Ministry of Land and Resource, Beijing 100035, China
  • Received:2017-11-10 Revised:2018-01-10 Online:2018-06-25 Published:2018-06-22

摘要:

土地整治重大项目相关风险的识别与管控是确保项目效益实现的重要基础。本研究基于全生命周期,在识别重大项目实施风险的基础上引入社会网络模型,分析各风险之间的关系与影响,并结合案例对关键风险进行评价。研究结果显示:① 基于项目阶段与要素整合两个维度,可依据风险主体与风险类型识别出39项关键风险因素;② 社会网络分析结果表明各风险之间联系紧密,度差最大的政府缺乏沟通风险对其他风险的影响最大,中介中心度最高的施工单位缺乏沟通风险对其他风险的控制能力最强,代理特性最高的政府缺乏沟通风险在协调与外部风险的矛盾时占据了优势地位;③ 综合凝聚特性与代理特性,施工单位缺乏沟通是影响权重最大的风险,案例表明,通过健全多方主体需求表达机制、构建多维资金保障体系、加强工程质量管理、落实评估机制等方式,控制影响权重排名前十位的关键风险因素可有效降低至少7.12%的土地整治重大项目风险综合指数值。因此,有必要加强土地整治重大项目实施过程中的风险管理,以保障项目效益的实现。

关键词: 土地整治, 社会网络模型, 全生命周期, 重大项目, 实施风险, 识别, 评价

Abstract:

The risk identification and control of major land consolidation projects is important for ensuring their effectiveness. Based on the whole life cycle of land consolidation, we built a social network model on the basis of recognizing the risk of major land consolidation projects and analyzed the relationships and influence of each risk. We found that from the two dimensions of project stage and factor integration, 39 risk factors can be identified according to the risk subject and risk category. Social network analysis showed that risks are closely linked. Maximum bias exists in the lack of communication between government, having the greatest impact on other risks. The highest degree of intermediation is the lack of communication between construction units, having the strongest control with other risks. The highest agent score is the lack of communication between governments, having a dominant position in coordinating the external risks. According to cohesion characteristics and agency characteristics, the lack of communication between construction units is the most influential risk. The control of the top ten key risks in weighting can effectively reduce at least 7. 12% risk value in major land consolidation projects. Improving the multi-party demand expression mechanism, building a multi-dimensional financial security system, strengthening project quality management and fulfilling the evaluation mechanism are feasible methods of controlling risk. It is necessary to strengthen the management of risk in major land consolidation projects.

Key words: land consolidation, social network model, full cycle life, major projects, implementation risk, identification, evaluation