资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 1084-1094.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.05.20

• 能源与碳 • 上一篇    

江苏省县域农业温室气体排放:时空差异与趋势演进

陈慧1(), 付光辉2, 刘友兆1()   

  1. 1. 南京农业大学公共管理学院,南京 210095
    2. 南京工业大学经济与管理学院,南京 211816
  • 收稿日期:2017-10-12 修回日期:2018-03-11 出版日期:2018-05-10 发布日期:2018-05-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:陈慧,女,江苏盐城人,博士生,主要研究方向为土地资源可持续利用。E-mail:chenhui728@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(17BMZ083)

Spatial and temporal variation and trend evolution of county-based agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in Jiangsu Province

Hui CHEN1(), Guanghui FU2, Youzhao LIU1()   

  1. 1. College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    2. School of Economic & Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China;
  • Received:2017-10-12 Revised:2018-03-11 Online:2018-05-10 Published:2018-05-10

摘要:

农业温室气体排放占温室气体排放比例很大,对气候变暖的影响不可忽视。本文以江苏省62个县域单元为研究对象,测算了2001—2014年各县域排放量和排放强度,分析了其空间格局变动、时空差异演变,进而开展了各县域农业温室气体排放承载系数和农业经济贡献系数差异分析,根据矩阵聚类分析进行了空间区域划分,全面揭示了农业温室气体排放的时空性、差异性。研究结果显示:①全省排放量年际变化波动较大,2007年以后快速增加,年均增长4.37%,而排放强度呈明显下降趋势,年均降幅4.26%。②排放量空间分布逐步集聚,而排放强度则逐步均衡化,到2014年已经相对离散。③排放量、排放强度及ESC基尼系数较为合理,而ECC(经济水平-温室气体排放)基尼系数超过了“0.4”警戒线,仍有上涨趋势,应引起特别注意。④为凸显排放对农业发展承载贡献的区域差异性,将62个县域单元划分为四类:“高承载力-高经济贡献”型、“高承载力-低经济贡献”型、“低承载力-高经济贡献”型、“低承载力-低经济贡献”型,并提出了不同类型区的农业发展与温室气体减排策略。本文对县域水平进行时空差异分析评价与聚类,不仅为江苏省及各县市制定农业节能减排政策、实现低碳农业提供科学依据,也为从微观县域层面在时间和空间2个维度上深化温室气体排放研究提供了新思路。

关键词: 农业温室气体排放, 县域, 时空差异, 基尼系数, 江苏

Abstract:

Agricultural greenhouse gases emissions account for a large proportion of global greenhouse gases emissions. The emission amount and intensity of greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4 and N2O in 62 counties in Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2014 were studied. By analyzing spatial patterns and the evolution of spatial variation according to Gini coefficients, the bearing and contribution of agricultural development was obtained. In this analysis, according to matrix clustering analysis the spatial region was divided and the inter-county relationship was quantitatively analyzed, which fully revealed the feature of agricultural greenhouse gases emissions—difference among spatial regions and its revolution with time. The annual fluctuation in emissions in the province varied significantly and increased rapidly after 2007 with average annual growth of 4.37%. However, the emission intensity showed a decreasing trend and an average annual decrease of 4.26%. The spatial agglomeration of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions was obvious. The emission intensity gradually tends to be balanced. Emission amount, emission intensity and ESC Gini coefficient were becoming more reasonable. However, ECC (economic level - greenhouse gases emission) Gini coefficient was still larger than 0.4 and showed a rising trend, which should receive special attention. In order to highlight regional differences in the bearing and contribution of agricultural development resulting from emissions, 62 county-units were divided into four categories: "High bearing capacity - high economic contribution" type", High bearing capacity - low economic contribution" type, "Low bearing capacity - high economic contribution" type, "Low bearing capacity-low economic contribution" type. This study provides a scientific basis for counties in Jiangsu Province to develop energy-saving and emission-reduction policies to achieve low-carbon agriculture.

Key words: agricultural greenhouse gases emission, county, spatial and temporal variation, Gini coefficient, Jiangsu