基于MRIO模型与LMDI方法的中国水产品贸易隐含碳排放转移研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.05.18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着国际贸易强度的日益增加,隐含碳排放呈现不断增长趋势,国际贸易已成为隐含碳排放转移的重要方式。本文利用MRIO模型测算中国2005—2014年水产品贸易隐含碳排放转移量,并采用LMDI方法进行效应分解,从规模效应、结构效应及强度效应三方面研究水产品贸易发展对隐含碳排放转移的驱动影响。结果表明,中国水产品贸易隐含碳排放转移量总体呈先降后升特征,且始终为水产品贸易隐含碳排放净流出国。规模效应在水产品进出口贸易隐含碳排放表现拉动作用,而结构效应和强度效应对水产品贸易隐含碳排放进出口则具有抑制作用。因此,通过大力发展渔业低碳技术和提高渔业生态效率降低水产品贸易隐含碳排放强度、构建整体海洋生态系统、优化水产品贸易结构,是减少中国水产品贸易隐含碳排放并提升中国在国际气候谈判中话语权的重要举措。

关键词: 水产品贸易, 隐含碳排放转移, MRIO模型, LMDI方法

Abstract:

With increasing international trade, embodied carbon emissions are growing. International trade is no longer a purely economic activity and has become an important way for embodied carbon emission transfer. The embodied carbon emissions in international trade have also become an important issue in global climate change negotiations. Based on the MRIO model, we calculated embodied carbon emission transfer in China’s aquatic product trade from 2005 to 2014. We adopted the LMDI method to decompose the effect and explore causes of embodied carbon emission transfer in the aquatic product trade from the effect of scale, structure and intensity. We found that the embodied carbon emissions transfer decreased and then increased in China. China has always been the net exporter of embodied carbon emissions in aquatic product trade. Among influencing factors of embodied carbon emissions in aquatic product trade, the scale effect has a positive effect. Structure and intensity effects have negative effects. Therefore, China should reduce the intensity of carbon emissions and optimize the trade structure of aquatic products as an important way to reduce embodied carbon emissions in the trade of aquatic products, and should improve fishery ecological efficiency and develop low-carbon technology to reduce embodied carbon emission intensity. Across whole marine ecological system construction China should promote the development of marine ranching, farming and other modern three-dimensional fishery ecological culture modes. At the same time, China should optimize the trade structure of aquatic products from the perspective of low-carbon fisheries and improve the utilization efficiency of the energy industry to further reduce embodied carbon emissions transfer in its aquatic product trade. These measures will enhance discourse and rights in international climate negotiations.

Key words: aquatic product trade, embodied carbon emissions, MRIO model, LMDI method

李晨, 丛睿, 邵桂兰. 基于MRIO模型与LMDI方法的中国水产品贸易隐含碳排放转移研究[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(5): 1063-1072.

Chen LI, Rui CONG, Gui Lan SHAO. Embodied carbon emissions transfer in China aquatic product trade based on MRIO modeling and LMDI methods[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(5): 1063-1072.

图/表 8

表1

表2

表3

表4

表5

图1

表6

表7

参考文献 28

[1]	胡剑波, 郭风. 中国进出口产品部门隐含碳排放测算-基于2002-2012年非竞争型投入产出数据的分析[J]. 商业研究, 2017, 59(5): 49-57.
	[Hu J B, Guo F.Measurement of embodied carbon emissions in China's import and export product sectors-an analysis based on non-competitive input-output data from 2002 to 2012[J]. Commercial Research, 2017, 59(5): 49-57. ]
[2]	盛仲麟, 何维达. 中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳排放研究[J]. 经济问题探索, 2016, (9): 110-116.
	[Sheng Z L, He W D.Embodied carbon emissions in China’s foreign trade[J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2016, (9): 110-116. ]
[3]	张云, 唐海燕. 中国贸易隐含碳排放与责任分担: 产业链视角下实例测算[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2015, (4): 148-156.
	[Zhang Y, Tang H Y.Research on China’s CO2 emissions embodied in trading and responsibility sharing: an example measurement from perspective of industrial chain[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2015, (4): 148-156. ]
[4]	唐启升. 碳汇渔业与海水养殖业-战略性新兴产业[EB/OL]. (2010-09-08)[2017-07-10]. .
	[Tang Q S. Fisheries Carbon Sequestration and Marine Aquaculture-Strategic Emerging Industries[EB/OL]. (2010-09-08)[2017-07-10]. . ]
[5]	张显良. 碳汇渔业与渔业低碳技术展望[J]. 中国水产, 2011, (5): 8-11.
	[Zhang X L.The prospect of fisheries carbon sequestration and fishery low-carbon technology[J]. China Fisheries, 2011, (5): 8-11. ]
[6]	李纯厚, 齐占会, 黄洪辉, 等. 海洋碳汇研究进展及南海碳汇渔业发展方向探讨[J]. 南方水产, 2010, (6): 81-86.
	[Li C H, Qi Z H, Huang H H, et al. Review on marine carbon sink and development of carbon sink fisheries in South China Sea[J]. South China Fisheries Science, 2010, (6): 81-86. ]
[7]	Odum H T.Environmental Accounting: Energy and Environmental Decision Making[M]. New York: John&Wiley, 1996.
[8]	Ahmad N, Wyckoff A.Carbon dioxide emissions embodied in international trade of goods[J]. Oecd Science Technology & Industry Working Papers, 2003, 25(4): 1-22.
[9]	Nakano S, Okamura A, Sakurai N, et al. The Measurement of CO2 Embodiments in International Trade: evidence from the Harmonized Input-Output and Bilateral Trade Database[R]. Paris: OECD, STIW working Paper, 2009.
[10]	门淑莲. 中国对外贸易中的碳排放转移及其应对之策[J]. 国际融资, 2014, (2): 54-58.
	[Men S L.Analysis and countermeasures on carbon transfer emissions in China’s foreign trade[J]. International Financing, 2014, (2): 54-58. ]
[11]	Shui B, Harriss R C.The role of CO2 embodiment in US-China trade[J]. Energy Policy, 2006, 34(18): 4063-4068.
[12]	余慧超, 王礼茂. 中美商品贸易的碳排放转移研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2009, (10): 1837-1846.
	[Yu H C, Wang L M.Carbon emission transfer by international trade: taking the case of Sino-U. S. Merchandise trade as an example[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, (10): 1837-1846. ]
[13]	马晶梅, 王新影, 贾红宇. 中日贸易隐含碳失衡研究[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(3): 523-533.
	[Ma J M, Wang X Y, Jia H Y.Imbalance in the carbon emissions embodied in Sino-Japan trade[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(3): 523-533. ]
[14]	吴献金, 李妍芳. 中日贸易对碳排放转移的影响研究[J]. 资源科学, 2012, 34(2): 301-308.
	[Wu X J, Li Y F.Effects of carbon emissions transfer in China-Japan trade[J]. Resources Science, 2012, 34(2): 301-308. ]
[15]	Dong Y, Ishikawa M, Liu X, et al. An analysis of the driving forces of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan-China trade[J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(11): 6784-6792.
[16]	陈楠, 刘学敏, 长谷部勇一. 中日产业转移及贸易隐含碳的影响因素-基于垂直专业化分工的研究视角[J]. 科技管理研究, 2016, 36(15): 236-241.
	[Chen N, Liu X M, Chang G B Y Y. Industry transfer and driving facts of trade embodied carbon in China-Japan-based on vertical specialization[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 2016, 36(15): 236-241. ]
[17]	庞军, 张浚哲. 中欧贸易隐含碳排放及其影响因素-基于MRIO模型和LMDI方法的分析[J]. 国际经贸探索, 2014, 30(11): 51-65.
	[Pang J, Zhang J Z.Carbon emissions embodied in Sino-EU trade and the influence factors: an analysis based on MRIO model and LMDI method[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, 2014, 30(11): 51-65. ]
[18]	李丽平, 任勇, 田春秀. 国际贸易视角下的中国碳排放责任分析[J]. 环境保护, 2008, (6): 62-64.
	[Li L P, Ren Y, Tian C X.Analysis on responsibility of China carbon emissions from perspective of international trade[J]. Environmental Protection, 2008, (6): 62-64. ]
[19]	闫云凤, 赵忠秀. 中国对外贸易隐含碳的测度研究-基于碳排放责任界定的视角[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2012, (1): 131-142.
	[Yan Y F, Zhao Z X.CO2 emissions embodied in China’s international trade: a perspective of allocating international responsibilities[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2012, (1): 131-142. ]
[20]	王文举, 向其凤. 国际贸易中的隐含碳排放核算及责任分配[J]. 中国工业经济, 2011, (10): 56-64.
	[Wang W J, Xiang Q F.Accounting and responsibility analysis on carbon emissions embodied in international trade[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2011, (10): 56-64. ]
[21]	王文举, 李峰. 国际碳排放核算标准选择的公平性研究[J]. 中国工业经济, 2013, (3): 59-71.
	[Wang W J, Li F.Fairness in the selection of international carbon emissions accounting standards[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2013, (3): 59-71. ]
[22]	World Input-Output Database. National Input-Output Tables [EB/OL]. .
[23]	UN Comtrade Database.Trade Statistics[EB/OL]. .
[24]	国家发展和改革委员会气候办. 省级温室气体清单编制指南([2011]1041号)[EB/OL]. (2011-05)[2017-06-09]. .
	[The National Development and Reform Commission on Climate. Provincial Greenhouse Gas List Preparation Guidelines(NO.[2011]1041)[EB/OL]. (2011- 05)[2017-06-09]. .]
[25]	国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社,2006-2015.
	[National Bureau of Statistics. China Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press,2006-2015. ]
[26]	国家统计局能源统计司. 中国能源统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社,2006-2015.
	[Department of Energy Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics. China Energy Statistical Yearbook [M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press,2006-2015. ]
[27]	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). Climate Change 2006: Synthesis Report[R]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006.
[28]	梁晓. 肯定列表制度对中国输日水产品贸易的影响及对策研究[D]. 中国海洋大学, 2010.
	[Liang X.The Research on the Impact of Positive List System to China's Export of Aquatic Products to Japan and Countermeasures[D]. Ocean University of China, 2010. ]

编码	英文产品描述	中文产品描述
034	Fish,fresh,chilled,frozen	鲜的、冷藏或冻藏的鱼
0341	Fish,fresh,chilled,whole	鲜的或冷藏的鱼
0342	Fish,frozen ex.fillets	冻藏鱼
0344	Fish fillets,frozen	冻藏的鱼片
0345	Fish fillets,fish,chilled	鲜的或冷藏鱼片和鲜的、冷藏或冻藏的其他鱼肉
035	Fish,dried,salted,smoked	干制的、盐腌的或烟熏的鱼
0351	Fish,dried,salted	干制的或盐腌的鱼
0352	Fish salted or in brine	盐腌的或盐水渍的鱼
0353	Fish(including fillets),smoked	烟熏的鱼（包括鱼片）
0354	Fish liver and roe,dries,smoked,salted or in brine	干制的、烟熏的、盐腌的或盐水渍的鱼肝和鱼子
0355	Flour,meals and pellets of fish	适于人类食用的鱼的细粉、粗粉和团粒
036	Crustaceans,molluscs etc	甲壳动物、软体动物以及水生无脊椎动物
0361	Crustaceans,frozen	冻藏的甲壳动物
0362	Crustaceans,other than frozen	非冻藏的甲壳动物
0363	Molluscs	软体动物
037	Fish etc.prepared,preserved.nes	鱼、甲壳、软体动物或其他水生无脊椎动物制品
0371	Fish,prepared,preserved,nes	制作或保藏的鱼
0372	Crustacea,molle,prepared,nes	甲壳、软体动物以及水生无脊椎动物制品

能源	碳排放因子 /(kg/GJ)	平均低位发热量/(kJ/kg)	碳氧化因子	年份	2005—2014年总能源消耗中各能源消耗量/万t
能源	碳排放因子 /(kg/GJ)	平均低位发热量/(kJ/kg)	碳氧化因子	年份	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
原油	20.0	41 816	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
汽油	18.9	43 070	1		159.59	167.75	172.78	160.44	168.06	169.07	185.98	192.86	198.72	216.60
煤油	19.5	43 070	1		1.60	1.54	0.94	1.26	0.76	0.90	1.47	1.19	1.19	0.75
柴油	20.2	42 652	1		1 286.35	1 365.53	1 218.97	1 098.87	1 134.15	1 206.73	1 271.90	1 335.49	1 441.53	1 491.99
燃料油	21.1	41 816	1		0.66	0.69	1.00	1.50	1.05	1.14	1.31	1.97	2.05	1.27
煤炭	26.0	20 908	1		1 802.00	1 871.00	1 957.00	2 023.00	2 081.00	2 147.00	2 207.00	2 266.00	2 451.00	2 579.00
焦炭	29.2	28 435	1		63.00	56.00	57.00	53.00	45.00	47.00	54.00	57.00	69.00	35.00
天然气	15.3	38 931	1		0	0	0	0	0	0.50	0.56	0.64	0.69	0.79

年份	出口隐含碳	进口隐含碳	隐含碳排放转移量
2005	161.18	59.40	101.77
2006	190.91	64.20	126.72
2007	157.80	56.16	101.64
2008	128.38	46.13	82.25
2009	125.20	44.16	81.04
2010	143.50	49.79	93.71
2011	154.59	55.45	99.14
2012	153.94	50.97	102.97
2013	162.60	54.42	108.18
2014	171.94	59.95	111.98

年份	贡献值/万t					贡献率
年份	规模效应	结构效应	强度效应	逐年总效应	累积总效应	规模效应	结构效应	强度效应
2006	30.77	-3.07	2.04	29.74	29.74	1.191	0.983	1.012
2007	32.86	-5.56	-30.68	-33.11	-3.37	1.229	0.966	0.825
2008	42.52	-22.85	-52.47	-29.43	-32.80	1.343	0.853	0.695
2009	43.90	-24.54	-55.34	-3.18	-35.98	1.361	0.842	0.678
2010	85.77	-44.88	-58.57	18.30	-17.67	1.757	0.745	0.681
2011	128.65	-61.56	-73.68	11.09	-6.59	2.259	0.677	0.627
2012	138.74	-75.48	-70.50	-0.65	-7.24	2.413	0.619	0.639
2013	153.88	-82.23	-70.23	8.66	1.42	2.587	0.602	0.648
2014	170.12	-88.49	-70.88	9.34	10.76	2.778	0.588	0.653

年份	贡献值/万t					贡献率
年份	规模效应	结构效应	强度效应	逐年总效应	累积总效应	规模效应	结构效应	强度效应
2006	5.78	1.31	-2.30	4.79	4.79	1.098	1.021	0.963
2007	10.82	-0.16	-13.90	-8.04	-3.24	1.206	0.997	0.786
2008	13.12	-3.06	-23.33	-10.03	-13.28	1.284	0.943	0.641
2009	11.81	-4.82	-22.24	-1.97	-15.25	1.258	0.910	0.649
2010	23.34	-9.66	-23.29	5.63	-9.61	1.535	0.837	0.652
2011	39.84	-20.43	-23.36	5.66	-3.96	2.002	0.700	0.666
2012	37.31	-22.51	-23.25	-4.48	-8.44	1.969	0.665	0.656
2013	43.55	-23.42	-25.12	3.45	-4.99	2.150	0.663	0.643
2014	51.61	-28.24	-22.83	5.54	0.55	2.375	0.623	0.682