资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 1026-1039.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.05.15

• 水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

不同地区城镇居民收入对食品消费水足迹的影响——基于QUAIDS模型

杨鑫(), 穆月英()   

  1. 中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-14 修回日期:2018-03-08 出版日期:2018-05-10 发布日期:2018-05-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:杨鑫,男,北京昌平人,博士生,主要从事农业理论与政策研究。E-mail:yangxinxin@cau.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300210);国家自然科学基金项目(71773121);现代农业产业技术体系北京市果类蔬菜产业创新团队项目(BAIC01-2018)

Impact of urban residential income on consumptive water footprints of food in different regions based on QUAIDS modeling

Xin YANG(), Yueying MU()   

  1. College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2017-08-14 Revised:2018-03-08 Online:2018-05-10 Published:2018-05-10

摘要:

食品消费需求通过食品供给影响农业水资源消耗。本文首先构建了基于QUAIDS模型的居民收入影响人均食品水足迹的理论框架,然后分析食品消费结构及其水足迹变化,其次对食品水足迹收入弹性进行测算与地区比较,最后模拟居民收入和食品价格对人均食品水足迹的影响。主要研究结论为:①随着收入增加,各类食品消费量不断增长,而瓜果、乳品等高水足迹食品消费量增速较快,二者使得2012年人均食品水足迹达到521.0m3,其中东北和中部人均食品水足迹增长速度最快;②西、中、东北和东部食品水足迹收入弹性分别为0.754、0.726、0.708和0.670,其中粮食、肉类和瓜果水足迹价格弹性相对较大;③居民收入和肉类等食品价格同时增加一定比例,人均食品水足迹增长水平较低,表明收入增长下部分食品的价格上涨有利于农业水资源可持续利用。此外,2016年人均食品水足迹实际值和模拟值对比表明,较大样本量下利用QUAIDS模型得到的模拟结果较准确。

关键词: 城镇居民, 食品消费, 水足迹, QUAIDS模型

Abstract:

Food consumption demand affects agricultural water consumption through food supply. This paper constructed a theoretical framework for income impacting on food water footprints per capita based on QUAIDS modeling. The aim was to analyze changes in food consumption structure and water footprints. The income elasticity of food water footprints was measured and compared among different regions. Last, the effect of income and food prices on food water footprints per capita were simulated. We found that with an increase in disposable income, the consumption of various foods increased; while the consumption of food with high water footprints such as fruit and dairy products grew rapidly. The combination of the two causes made food water footprints per capita reach 521.0 m³ in 2012. Food water footprints per capita in northeastern and central China grew the fastest. The income elasticity of food water footprints in western, central, northeastern and eastern China was 0.754, 0.726, 0.708 and 0.670, respectively. The price elasticity of grain, meat and fruit water footprints were relatively higher. With certain increases in household income and meat prices simultaneously, the growth rate of food water footprints per capita was at a lower level, indicating that rising prices of partial food products was conducive to the sustainable use of agricultural water resources. The comparison between the actual value and the simulated value of food water footprint per capita in 2016 revealed that simulation results from QUAIDS was more accurate in a large sample size.

Key words: urban residents, food consumption, water footprint, QUAIDS model