基于风险评价的低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性情景模拟——以重庆市巴南区为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.05.10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

低丘缓坡土地开发是缓解用地压力、优化配置土地资源的有效途径,须在适宜性前提下进行以规避潜在风险。将有序加权平均方法（OWA）和GIS平台相结合,以重庆市巴南区为研究实例,从景观风险、社会风险和生态风险3个方面选取了11个指标构建了低丘缓坡土地适宜性评价指标体系,模拟出5种政策情景下的开发建设适宜性情况。结果表明：随着决策风险系数α增大,全区低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性等级总体更高;不同政策情景下,研究区西部片区的适宜性情况总体优于东部片区,建成区周边区域的适宜性高于偏远区域,在非极端政策情景下,低丘缓坡土地适宜性分区相对破碎;在本轮土地利用总体规划期内,巴南区新增城镇用地布局主要分布在非低丘缓坡区域,对低丘缓坡土地开发建设布局的规划决策总体表现出较为谨慎和保守的态度。研究在一定程度上丰富了低丘缓坡土地适宜性评价的理论和方法,可为类似区域低丘缓坡土地资源利用与管理提供方法借鉴和实践支撑。

关键词: 低丘缓坡土地, 适宜性评价, 有序加权平均方法, GIS, 情景模拟, 重庆市巴南区

Abstract:

Utilizing gentle hillside areas is an effective way to alleviate land use pressure and optimize the allocation of land resources and avoid potential risks. In order to explore dynamic simulation to evaluate suitability of gentle hillsides under different policy scenario, promote scientific and rational use of gentle hillsides and reduce utilization risk, we studied Banan District in Chongqing. Eleven indices were selected to establish the evaluation index system representing landscape risk, social risk and ecological risk. Simulation results of the utilization and construction suitability of gentle hillsides under five policy scenarios were carried out based on OWA (ordered weighted averaging) and GIS (geographical information system) methods. With increasing α (the decision risk coefficient), the level of utilization and construction suitability of gentle hillsides is higher. Suitability of the western part of the study area were overall better than that of the eastern part, while the suitability of areas around streets and towns were better than remote areas. Under non-extreme policy scenarios, suitability partition was more scattered. In the current period of land use planning, new urban construction land was mainly distributed in areas not comprised of gentle hillsides. Land use planning of gentle hillsides present a prudent and conservative attitude. To some extent, this research enriches the theory and methods of suitability evaluation of gentle hillside land. This work provides a reference and practice support for utilization and management of gentle hillsides in similar areas.

Key words: gentle hillside, suitability assessment, ordered weighted averaging, GIS, scenario simulation, Banan District, Chongqing

李靖, 廖和平, 蔡进. 基于风险评价的低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性情景模拟——以重庆市巴南区为例[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(5): 967-979.

Jing LI, Heping LIAO, Jin CAI. Simulation of utilization and construction suitability of gentle hillsides based on risk evaluation in Banan District of Chongqing[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(5): 967-979.

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准则层	指标层	指标权重	归一化赋值方法
景观风险	坡度	0.128	坡度<8°=0;8~25°：归一化;>25°=1
	农地	0.041	水田=0.9;水浇地=0.8;旱地=0.7;果园=0.5;茶园=0.4;其他园地=0.45;基本农田=1;其他区域=0
	林地	0.021	有林地=0.6;灌木林地=0.5;其他林地=0.55;自然保护区市级=0.9;县级=0.8;建设管制区=0.7;其他区域=0
	农村建设用地	0.030	承载强度<60人/hm²=0.2;（60~90）人/hm²=0.5;>90人/hm²=0.8;非农村建设用地=0
社会风险	水源保护	0.119	饮用水取水区间=1;取水区间上游1km、下游0.5km=0.9;水源保护控制区=0.7;洪水淹没区=0.9;其他区域=0
	农地利用等	0.093	农用地利用等1~15等：归一化;非农用地=0
	公路通达性	0.060	距公路0~2km：归一化;>2km=1
	距城镇距离	0.038	距城镇0~2km：归一化;>2km=1
生态风险	植被绿度	0.107	平均值<0.45=0;0.45~0.8：归一化;>0.8=1
	地质灾害易发度	0.313	低等=0.2;中等=0.5;高等=0.8;非地质灾害区=0
	距河流距离	0.050	距离≤0.5km=1;>0.5m=0

次序权重	最乐观 α=0.000 1	乐观 α=0.1	较乐观 α=0.5	无偏好 α=1	较悲观 α=2	悲观 α=10	最悲观 α=10 000
v₁	1.000	0.787	0.302	0.091	0.008	0.000	0.000
v₂	0.000	0.056	0.125	0.091	0.025	0.000	0.000
v₃	0.000	0.035	0.096	0.091	0.041	0.000	0.000
v₄	0.000	0.026	0.081	0.091	0.058	0.000	0.000
v₅	0.000	0.020	0.071	0.091	0.074	0.000	0.000
v₆	0.000	0.017	0.064	0.091	0.091	0.002	0.000
v₇	0.000	0.015	0.059	0.091	0.107	0.009	0.000
v₈	0.000	0.013	0.055	0.091	0.124	0.031	0.000
v₉	0.000	0.011	0.052	0.091	0.140	0.093	0.000
v₁₀	0.000	0.010	0.049	0.091	0.157	0.251	0.000
v₁₁	0.000	0.009	0.047	0.091	0.174	0.614	1.000

适宜性分区	风险控制型极端政策α=0.5	风险控制型政策α=0.8	平衡型政策 α=1	城镇建设型政策α=1.2	城镇建设型极端政策α=2
最适宜区	24.69	25.79	26.68	29.16	35.47
高适宜区	54.41	47.34	43.52	39.03	41.96
中适宜区	15.50	18.57	19.64	20.46	14.06
次适宜区	4.86	7.48	8.91	9.47	7.38
不适宜区	0.54	0.81	1.25	1.88	1.13