资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 967-979.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.05.10
收稿日期:
2017-07-12
修回日期:
2018-03-06
出版日期:
2018-05-10
发布日期:
2018-05-10
作者简介:
作者简介:李靖,男,四川绵阳人,博士生,主要从事国土资源与区域发展研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Jing LI1(), Heping LIAO1,2(
), Jin CAI1
Received:
2017-07-12
Revised:
2018-03-06
Online:
2018-05-10
Published:
2018-05-10
摘要:
低丘缓坡土地开发是缓解用地压力、优化配置土地资源的有效途径,须在适宜性前提下进行以规避潜在风险。将有序加权平均方法(OWA)和GIS平台相结合,以重庆市巴南区为研究实例,从景观风险、社会风险和生态风险3个方面选取了11个指标构建了低丘缓坡土地适宜性评价指标体系,模拟出5种政策情景下的开发建设适宜性情况。结果表明:随着决策风险系数α增大,全区低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性等级总体更高;不同政策情景下,研究区西部片区的适宜性情况总体优于东部片区,建成区周边区域的适宜性高于偏远区域,在非极端政策情景下,低丘缓坡土地适宜性分区相对破碎;在本轮土地利用总体规划期内,巴南区新增城镇用地布局主要分布在非低丘缓坡区域,对低丘缓坡土地开发建设布局的规划决策总体表现出较为谨慎和保守的态度。研究在一定程度上丰富了低丘缓坡土地适宜性评价的理论和方法,可为类似区域低丘缓坡土地资源利用与管理提供方法借鉴和实践支撑。
李靖, 廖和平, 蔡进. 基于风险评价的低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性情景模拟——以重庆市巴南区为例[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(5): 967-979.
Jing LI, Heping LIAO, Jin CAI. Simulation of utilization and construction suitability of gentle hillsides based on risk evaluation in Banan District of Chongqing[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(5): 967-979.
表1
指标体系及归一化方法"
准则层 | 指标层 | 指标权重 | 归一化赋值方法 |
---|---|---|---|
景观风险 | 坡度 | 0.128 | 坡度<8°=0;8~25°:归一化;>25°=1 |
农地 | 0.041 | 水田=0.9;水浇地=0.8;旱地=0.7;果园=0.5;茶园=0.4;其他园地=0.45;基本农田=1;其他区域=0 | |
林地 | 0.021 | 有林地=0.6;灌木林地=0.5;其他林地=0.55;自然保护区市级=0.9;县级=0.8;建设管制区=0.7;其他区域=0 | |
农村建设用地 | 0.030 | 承载强度<60人/hm2=0.2;(60~90)人/hm2=0.5;>90人/hm2=0.8;非农村建设用地=0 | |
社会风险 | 水源保护 | 0.119 | 饮用水取水区间=1;取水区间上游1km、下游0.5km=0.9;水源保护控制区=0.7;洪水淹没区=0.9;其他区域=0 |
农地利用等 | 0.093 | 农用地利用等1~15等:归一化;非农用地=0 | |
公路通达性 | 0.060 | 距公路0~2km:归一化;>2km=1 | |
距城镇距离 | 0.038 | 距城镇0~2km:归一化;>2km=1 | |
生态风险 | 植被绿度 | 0.107 | 平均值<0.45=0;0.45~0.8:归一化;>0.8=1 |
地质灾害易发度 | 0.313 | 低等=0.2;中等=0.5;高等=0.8;非地质灾害区=0 | |
距河流距离 | 0.050 | 距离≤0.5km=1;>0.5m=0 |
表2
位序权重计算结果"
次序权重 | 最乐观 α=0.000 1 | 乐观 α=0.1 | 较乐观 α=0.5 | 无偏好 α=1 | 较悲观 α=2 | 悲观 α=10 | 最悲观 α=10 000 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
v1 | 1.000 | 0.787 | 0.302 | 0.091 | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
v2 | 0.000 | 0.056 | 0.125 | 0.091 | 0.025 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
v3 | 0.000 | 0.035 | 0.096 | 0.091 | 0.041 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
v4 | 0.000 | 0.026 | 0.081 | 0.091 | 0.058 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
v5 | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.071 | 0.091 | 0.074 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
v6 | 0.000 | 0.017 | 0.064 | 0.091 | 0.091 | 0.002 | 0.000 |
v7 | 0.000 | 0.015 | 0.059 | 0.091 | 0.107 | 0.009 | 0.000 |
v8 | 0.000 | 0.013 | 0.055 | 0.091 | 0.124 | 0.031 | 0.000 |
v9 | 0.000 | 0.011 | 0.052 | 0.091 | 0.140 | 0.093 | 0.000 |
v10 | 0.000 | 0.010 | 0.049 | 0.091 | 0.157 | 0.251 | 0.000 |
v11 | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.047 | 0.091 | 0.174 | 0.614 | 1.000 |
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