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中国工业经济增长与工业污染的内在关联机制测度

1. 吉林大学数量经济研究中心,长春 130012
• 收稿日期:2017-06-26 修回日期:2018-03-20 出版日期:2018-05-02 发布日期:2018-05-02
• 作者简介:

作者简介：隋建利,男,吉林长白人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事计量经济学和产业经济学研究。E-mail: jlsui@163.com

• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（71573104）;教育部重点研究基地重大项目（16JJD790014）;吉林大学青年学术领袖培育计划项目 （2015FRLX15）

The intrinsic associative mechanism between industrial economic growth and industrial pollution in China

Jianli SUI, Biying LIU, Jinquan LIU

1. Center for Quantitative Economics, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
• Received:2017-06-26 Revised:2018-03-20 Online:2018-05-02 Published:2018-05-02

Abstract:

Industrial pollution is a serious problem in the process of human industrialization. In order to solve the problem in China, based on the industrial data of China’s solid waste output ($solidt$), waste water emission ($liquidt$), waste gas exhaust ($gast$) and economic growth ($iavt$), we built an industrial pollution and industrial economic growth system, namely “$solidt-iavt$”, “$liquidt-iavt$” and “$gast-iavt$”. Under this system, we measure the cyclicity of associative mechanisms between industrial economic growth and industrial pollution with the model of nonlinear MS-VAR. We capture and portray the regime transmission process of the industrial pollution and industrial economic growth system to identity whether the system is in “low growth regime” or “fast growth regime”, so that the relationship between industrial pollution and industrial economic growth can be identified. We found that “industrial pollution and industrial economic growth” system exists a sign of structural mutation between “low growth regime” and “fast growth regime”, and the system has a nonlinear characteristic of cyclic change. With the regime transforming, the relationship between industrial pollution and industrial economy will also change. While “$solidt-iavt$” system is in “low (fast) growth regime”, $solidt$ and $iavt$ are negatively (positively) related. Comparatively, $liquidt$ and $iavt$ are performing a negative (positive) relationship, when “$liquidt-iavt$” system is in “fast (low) growth regime”. No matter “$gast-iavt$” system is in “low growth regime” or “fast growth regime”, the relationship between $gast$ and $iavt$ is positive. What’s more, for the “$solidt-iavt$” system and the “$gast-iavt$” system, the possibility and sustainability in “low (fast) growth regime” is higher (lower). However, with a higher (lower) probability and stronger (weaker) durability, “$liquidt-iavt$”system tends to be in “fast (low) growth regime”.