资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 862-873.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.04.19

• • 上一篇    

中国工业经济增长与工业污染的内在关联机制测度

隋建利, 刘碧莹, 刘金全   

  1. 吉林大学数量经济研究中心,长春 130012
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-26 修回日期:2018-03-20 出版日期:2018-05-02 发布日期:2018-05-02
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:隋建利,男,吉林长白人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事计量经济学和产业经济学研究。E-mail: jlsui@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573104);教育部重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790014);吉林大学青年学术领袖培育计划项目 (2015FRLX15)

The intrinsic associative mechanism between industrial economic growth and industrial pollution in China

Jianli SUI, Biying LIU, Jinquan LIU   

  1. Center for Quantitative Economics, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
  • Received:2017-06-26 Revised:2018-03-20 Online:2018-05-02 Published:2018-05-02

摘要:

工业污染始终是人类工业化进程中面临的重要挑战,为解决中国工业污染与工业经济之间的协调问题,本文基于中国工业固体废物产生量增长率(solidt)、工业废水排放量增长率(liquidt)、工业废气排放量增长率(gast) 和工业经济增长率 (iavt) 构建“solidt-iavt”、“liquidt-iavt”和“gast-iavt”三种“工业污染与工业经济”系统,运用非线性MS-VAR模型,测度中国工业经济增长与工业污染内在关联机制的周期性。研究结果表明:①“工业污染与工业经济”系统潜存着在“低速增长区制”和“快速增长区制”之间相互转移的结构性突变迹象,并且具有非线性周期变化特征;②“工业污染与工业经济”系统处于“低 (快) 速增长区制”时,solidtiavt呈负(正)相关关系,liquidtiavt呈正(负)相关关系,gastiavt呈正相关关系;③“solidt-iavt”系统和“gast-iavt”系统处于“低(快)速增长区制”时的可能性大(小)、持续性强(弱),“liquidt-iavt”系统处于“快(低)速增长区制”的可能性大(小)、持续性强(弱)。

关键词: 工业经济增长, 工业污染, 关联机制, 周期性, 中国

Abstract:

Industrial pollution is a serious problem in the process of human industrialization. In order to solve the problem in China, based on the industrial data of China’s solid waste output (solidt), waste water emission (liquidt), waste gas exhaust (gast) and economic growth (iavt), we built an industrial pollution and industrial economic growth system, namely “solidt-iavt”, “liquidt-iavt” and “gast-iavt”. Under this system, we measure the cyclicity of associative mechanisms between industrial economic growth and industrial pollution with the model of nonlinear MS-VAR. We capture and portray the regime transmission process of the industrial pollution and industrial economic growth system to identity whether the system is in “low growth regime” or “fast growth regime”, so that the relationship between industrial pollution and industrial economic growth can be identified. We found that “industrial pollution and industrial economic growth” system exists a sign of structural mutation between “low growth regime” and “fast growth regime”, and the system has a nonlinear characteristic of cyclic change. With the regime transforming, the relationship between industrial pollution and industrial economy will also change. While “solidt-iavt” system is in “low (fast) growth regime”, solidt and iavt are negatively (positively) related. Comparatively, liquidt and iavt are performing a negative (positive) relationship, when “liquidt-iavt” system is in “fast (low) growth regime”. No matter “gast-iavt” system is in “low growth regime” or “fast growth regime”, the relationship between gast and iavt is positive. What’s more, for the “solidt-iavt” system and the “gast-iavt” system, the possibility and sustainability in “low (fast) growth regime” is higher (lower). However, with a higher (lower) probability and stronger (weaker) durability, “liquidt-iavt”system tends to be in “fast (low) growth regime”.

Key words: industrial economic growth, industrial pollution, associative mechanism, cyclicity, China