基于生物勘探的遗传资源物种多样性价值评估

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.04.16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过生物勘探活动获得的资源价值是生物多样性价值的主要表现形式之一。本文通过理论建模,对遗传资源物种多样性潜在价值（选择价值）的评估方法进行了探索,并通过数值模拟,尝试性地评估了全中国和案例区高等植物物种多样性的遗传价值。结果显示,中国高等植物具有较高的潜在价值: 边际物种价值为人民币3531万元,潜在总价值约为11 825亿元;以一个面积确定的案例区为例,得到武夷山国家级自然保护区的边际栖息地价值约为6444元/hm²。本文通过修正既有主要模型和参数赋值方法,构建新的潜在价值评估的理论模型和参数,为国内开展遗传资源物种多样性选择价值评估提供了一个全新的方法补充,即基于生物勘探的价值评估。通过数值模拟所形成的研究结论对于未来将遗传资源的潜在价值纳入保护政策制订、引导保护投资、促进生物遗传资源的有效保护和利用具有重要的现实意义。

关键词: 物种多样性, 遗传资源, 选择价值, 生物勘探, 中国, 武夷山

Abstract:

Bio-prospecting is the search for valuable products such as pharmaceuticals in biological organisms and is one of the main approaches to capture the value of species biodiversity. Theoretically, private-sector bio-prospecting effort can reveal the potential value of species biodiversity conservation or its optional value. This approach provides a unique way to understand the Willingness-To-Pay of human society for conserving genetic resources. Here, we improve model setting and parameters in existing literature to explore and establish a theoretical model of assessing the potential value (option value) of genetic resources, and estimating the genetic value of species diversity of higher plants in China by numerical simulation. Results show that the option value of higher plants in China is relatively high. The marginal option value of species is 35. 31 million CNY, and the potential total value of higher plants in China is about 1. 18 trillion CNY. As designation of nature reserves is the major approach to protect higher plants in China, we took Wuyishan National Nature Reserve as a case, turned the species value into the value of marginal area of land in conservation, and found that the marginal land value of the case nature reserve is 6444 CNY/hm². The theoretical model and parameters on option value assessment developed in this study provide an innovative supplement to existing methods and approaches for genetic resource valuation in China. Results from numerical simulation provide an important price reference for guiding conservation investment, promoting the effective protection and utilization of biological resources, and integrating the future potential value of genetic resources into conservation policy decision-making.

Key words: species diversity, genetic resources, option value: bio-prospecting, China, Wuyishan

吴健, 邱晓霞. 基于生物勘探的遗传资源物种多样性价值评估[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(4): 829-837.

Jian WU, Xiaoxia QIU. Valuing species diversity based on bio-prospecting[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(4): 829-837.

图/表 2

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名录	变量	赋值
中国高等植物特有种数量/个	n	17 439.00
每种新药的总收益/万元	R	157 504.39
单个物种成功概率	p	0.000 068
单个物种测试成本/元	c	17 046.00
每年新批准的新药数量/个	m	42.50
贴现率/%	r	5.00
每年被识别出来的源于遗传资源的潜在新药数量	λ	61.12

	p取模型计算值	p取经验值高值	p取经验值低值
p	0.682E-04	0.001	0.250E-04
c	17 046.000	15 362.550	1 086.861
(pR-c)	90 312.140	1 559 681.380	38 289.240
(1-p)^n	0.305	2.650E-08	0.647
λ	61.120	42.500	120.270
(1+r)/r	21.000	21.000	21.000
边际物种价值/万元	3 531.000	0.004	26 253.000
中国高等植物潜在勘探总价值/亿元	11 825.000	13 920.000	13 669.000