资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 809-817.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.04.14
徐涛1,2(), 赵敏娟1,2(
), 李二辉3, 乔丹1,2
收稿日期:
2017-05-12
修回日期:
2017-10-09
出版日期:
2018-05-02
发布日期:
2018-05-02
作者简介:
作者简介:徐涛,男,河南淮阳县人,博士生,资源经济与环境管理方向。E-mail:
基金资助:
Tao XU1,2(), Minjuan ZHAO1,2(
), Erhui LI3, Dan QIAO1,2
Received:
2017-05-12
Revised:
2017-10-09
Online:
2018-05-02
Published:
2018-05-02
摘要:
探究农户节水技术采用的阶段性特征,对促进其持续采用具有重要意义。本文以滴灌技术为例,结合民勤县354份农户调研数据,运用结构方程模型分析了技术认知与补贴政策认知对农户采用节水技术的不同阶段的影响。结果表明:从初始采用阶段到后续采用阶段,农户感知技术的易用性有所提升,而感知技术的有用性与感知补贴政策的合理性有所下降;感知有用性对农户采用意愿的影响相对于感知易用性有所增强;补贴政策认知对农户采用意愿的影响有所提升,并成为最主要的影响因素。据此建议:技术宣传、培训与田间示范在技术推广中仍有重要意义;进一步加大研发投入,从而提升农户技术采用的效果与持续性;适当调整补贴标准与方式,提高补贴政策的实施效果。
徐涛, 赵敏娟, 李二辉, 乔丹. 技术认知、补贴政策对农户不同节水技术采用阶段的影响分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(4): 809-817.
Tao XU, Minjuan ZHAO, Erhui LI, Dan QIAO. The impact of technology perception and subsidy policy on different phases of farmers’ water-saving irrigation technology adoption[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(4): 809-817.
表1
结构方程模型变量及其描述统计"
变量 | 变量说明 | 初始采用阶段农户 | 后续采用阶段农户 | 样本整体 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
均值 | 标准差 | 均值 | 标准差 | 均值 | 标准差 | |||||
采用意愿 (WA) | WA1 | 现行补贴政策下,我愿意(继续)使用滴灌技术 | 2.699 | 1.133 | 2.697 | 1.348 | 2.698 | 1.256 | ||
WA2 | 若优化补贴政策,我愿意(扩大)使用面积 | 2.994 | 1.050 | 2.874 | 1.302 | 2.927 | 1.197 | |||
WA3 | 我会推荐亲朋好友使用滴灌技术 | 2.481 | 0.912 | 2.586 | 1.158 | 2.540 | 1.056 | |||
感知易用性 (PEU) | PEU1 | 滴灌技术易于掌握 | 3.186 | 1.058 | 3.904 | 1.040 | 3.588 | 1.106 | ||
PEU2 | 滴灌设备(地膜、毛管等)铺设方便 | 2.872 | 1.117 | 3.717 | 1.109 | 3.345 | 1.188 | |||
PEU3 | 滴灌设备(地膜、毛管等)回收容易 | 2.846 | 0.978 | 3.732 | 1.087 | 3.342 | 1.129 | |||
感知有用性 (PU) | PU1 | 滴灌技术的节水效果很好 | 3.532 | 0.973 | 3.116 | 1.077 | 3.299 | 1.051 | ||
PU2 | 滴灌技术的使用能节省一部分劳动力 | 3.340 | 0.933 | 3.136 | 1.116 | 3.226 | 1.043 | |||
PU3 | 滴灌技术能节省化肥的使用量 | 3.250 | 0.855 | 2.990 | 1.008 | 3.105 | 0.951 | |||
补贴政策认知(PSP) | PSP1 | 我认为现有补贴标准合理 | 3.237 | 0.812 | 2.949 | 0.888 | 3.076 | 0.866 | ||
PSP2 | 我认为现有补贴方式合理 | 3.160 | 0.807 | 3.010 | 0.923 | 3.076 | 0.876 | |||
PSP3 | 我认为现有补贴政策整体合理 | 3.071 | 0.737 | 2.899 | 0.849 | 2.975 | 0.805 | |||
环境认知 (EA) | EA1 | 我所在的村子灌溉用水很紧张 | 3.891 | 1.081 | 3.874 | 1.007 | 3.881 | 1.039 | ||
EA2 | 我所在村子的地下水位越来越深(机井越打越深) | 3.699 | 1.044 | 3.687 | 1.019 | 3.692 | 1.029 | |||
EA3 | 节水灌溉技术推广有利于民勤生态环境的改善 | 3.756 | 1.018 | 3.732 | 0.953 | 3.743 | 0.981 | |||
主观规范 (SN) | SN1 | 周围的人都愿意使用滴灌技术 | 2.039 | 1.071 | 2.753 | 1.575 | 2.438 | 1.419 | ||
SN2 | 周围使用滴灌技术的人很多 | 1.923 | 0.905 | 2.803 | 1.605 | 2.415 | 1.410 | |||
SN3 | 政府推广节水灌溉技术的力度很大 | 2.455 | 1.068 | 3.126 | 1.606 | 2.831 | 1.432 | |||
个体特征 | Education | 主要家庭成员的最高受教育年限/年 | 7.974 | 2.851 | 7.929 | 2.804 | 7.949 | 2.821 | ||
Income | 年度家庭总收入/万元 | 3.771 | 2.837 | 4.673 | 5.097 | 4.276 | 4.270 | |||
Scale | 最大地块的面积/hm2 | 0.188 | 0.235 | 0.368 | 0.440 | 0.289 | 0.375 |
表2
调查问卷的信度与效度检验"
变量 | 初始采用阶段农户 | 后续采用阶段农户 | 样本整体 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
载荷 | Cronbach's Alpha | 载荷 | Cronbach's Alpha | 载荷 | Cronbach's Alpha | ||||
采用意愿 (WA) | WA1 | 0.810 | 0.943 | 0.853 | 0.966 | 0.833 | 0.957 | ||
WA2 | 0.733 | 0.813 | 0.780 | ||||||
WA3 | 0.725 | 0.767 | 0.752 | ||||||
感知易用性 (PEU) | PEU1 | 0.717 | 0.907 | 0.760 | 0.950 | 0.874 | 0.941 | ||
PEU2 | 0.765 | 0.688 | 0.910 | ||||||
PEU3 | 0.651 | 0.713 | 0.902 | ||||||
感知有用性 (PU) | PU1 | 0.703 | 0.905 | 0.821 | 0.956 | 0.900 | 0.939 | ||
PU2 | 0.675 | 0.857 | 0.886 | ||||||
PU3 | 0.628 | 0.797 | 0.867 | ||||||
补贴政策认知 (PSP) | PSP1 | 0.847 | 0.908 | 0.888 | 0.937 | 0.877 | 0.927 | ||
PSP2 | 0.792 | 0.867 | 0.842 | ||||||
PSP3 | 0.796 | 0.860 | 0.853 | ||||||
环境认知 (EA) | EA1 | 0.913 | 0.927 | 0.829 | 0.876 | 0.872 | 0.901 | ||
EA2 | 0.828 | 0.802 | 0.806 | ||||||
EA3 | 0.836 | 0.744 | 0.810 | ||||||
主观规范 (SN) | SN1 | 0.912 | 0.927 | 0.921 | 0.945 | 0.929 | 0.945 | ||
SN2 | 0.848 | 0.899 | 0.898 | ||||||
SN3 | 0.825 | 0.838 | 0.845 | ||||||
问卷整体Cronbach's Alpha | 0.867 | 0.885 | 0.878 |
表3
结构方程模型适配度指标统计"
拟合指数 | 建议值 | 初始采用模型 | 后续采用模型 | 样本整体模型 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
绝对拟合 指数 | χ2/df | <3.00 | 1.623 | 2.234 | 2.967 |
RMSEA | ≤0.05良好,≤0.08合理 | 0.063 | 0.079 | 0.075 | |
GFI | ≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受 | 0.841 | 0.875 | 0.884 | |
AGFI | ≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受 | 0.797 | 0.825 | 0.838 | |
相对拟合 指数 | NFI | ≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受 | 0.897 | 0.922 | 0.933 |
IFI | ≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受 | 0.958 | 0.955 | 0.954 | |
TLI | ≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受 | 0.951 | 0.942 | 0.942 | |
CFI | ≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受 | 0.957 | 0.955 | 0.954 |
表4
结构方程模型估计结果"
路径 | 初始采用模型 | 后续采用模型 | 样本整体模型 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
未标准化系数 | 标准化系数 | 未标准化系数 | 标准化系数 | 未标准化系数 | 标准化系数 | |||
WA←PEU | 0.234*** | 0.246 | 0.193*** | 0.172 | 0.149*** | 0.153 | ||
WA←PU | 0.294*** | 0.248 | 0.217*** | 0.199 | 0.292*** | 0.297 | ||
WA←PSP | 0.433*** | 0.330 | 0.394*** | 0.274 | 0.440*** | 0.324 | ||
WA←EA | 0.215*** | 0.266 | 0.229*** | 0.190 | 0.219*** | 0.218 | ||
WA←SN | 0.284*** | 0.350 | 0.179*** | 0.252 | 0.187*** | 0.271 | ||
WA←Edu | 0.032* | 0.105 | 0.081*** | 0.205 | 0.061*** | 0.172 | ||
WA←Income | 0.048** | 0.158 | 0.019* | 0.091 | 0.027*** | 0.115 | ||
WA←Scale | 0.038** | 0.157 | 0.018*** | 0.105 | 0.017** | 0.096 |
[1] | 中华人民共和国水利部. 2016年中国水资源公报 [M]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2017. |
[The Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China. China Water Resources Bulletin 2016 [M]. Beijing: China Water & Power Press, 2017.] | |
[2] | 徐涛, 姚柳杨, 乔丹, 等. 节水灌溉技术社会生态效益评估-以石羊河下游民勤县为例[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(10): 1925-1934. |
[Xu T, Yao L Y, Qiao D, et al. Social and ecological benefits evaluation of water-saving irrigation technology adoption in Minqin County[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(10): 1925-1934.] | |
[3] | 许朗, 刘金金. 农户节水灌溉技术选择行为的影响因素分析-基于山东省蒙阴县的调查数据[J]. 中国农村观察, 2013, (6): 45-51. |
[Xu L, Liu J J.Study on influencing factors of farmer’s choice behavior for water-saving irrigation techniques: based on survey data from Mengyin Shandong Province[J]. China Rural Survey, 2013, (6): 45-51. ] | |
[4] | 贾蕊, 陆迁. 不同灌溉技术条件下信贷约束对农户生产效率的影响-以甘肃张掖为例[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 756-765. |
[Jia R, Lu Q.The effects of credit constraints on peasant household production efficiency under different irrigation technologies in Zhangye, Gansu[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(4): 756-765. ] | |
[5] | 饶静. “项目制”下节水农业建设困境研究-以河北省Z市高效节水农业技术推广为例[J]. 农业经济问题, 2017, (1): 83-90. |
[Rao J.Research on the plight of water-saving agriculture construction in China by project system: case of the high-efficiency and water-saving agricultural technology extension in Z city of Hebei Province[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2017, (1): 83-90. ] | |
[6] | Brodt S, Klonsky Y K, Tourte L.Farmer goals and management styles: Implications for advancing biologically based agriculture[J]. Agricultural Systems, 2006, 89(1): 90-105. |
[7] | 唐博文, 罗小锋, 秦军. 农户采用不同属性技术的影响因素分析-基于9省(区)2110户农户的调查[J]. 中国农村经济, 2010, (6): 49-57. |
[Tang B W, Luo X F, Qin J.Analysis of factors influencing farmers using different technologies survey based on 2110 farmers of 9 provinces[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2010, (6): 49-57. ] | |
[8] | 韩一军, 李雪, 付文阁. 麦农采用农业节水技术的影响因素分析-基于北方干旱缺水地区的调查[J]. 南京农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2015, (4): 62-69. |
[Han Y J, Li X, Fu W G.Influencing factors on water-saving technologies adoption by wheat producers: based on an investigation in water shortage areas of northern China[J]. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2015, (4): 62-69. ] | |
[9] | 周未, 刘涵, 王景旭, 等. 农户超级稻品种采纳行为及影响因素的实证研究-基于湖北省农户种植超级稻的调查[J]. 华中农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2010, (4): 32-36. |
[Zhou M, Liu H, Wang J X, et al. Empirical study on behavior and influencing factors of farmers' adopting super rice variety[J]. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2010, (4): 32-36. ] | |
[10] | 刘军弟, 霍学喜, 黄玉祥, 等. 基于农户受偿意愿的节水灌溉补贴标准研究[J]. 农业技术经济, 2012, (11): 29-40. |
[Liu J D, Huo X X, Huang Y X, et al. Research of the subsidy standard of water-saving irrigation based on farmers’ willingness to accept[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2012, (11): 29-40. ] | |
[11] | 丁丽萍, 帅传敏, 李文静, 等. 基于SEM的公众太阳能光伏发电认知和采纳意愿的实证研究[J]. 资源科学, 2015, 37(7): 1414-1423. |
[Ding L P, Shuai C M, Li W J, et al. Empirical study on the public's cognition and willingness to adopt solar photovoltaic power generation based on a SEM Model[J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(7): 1414-1423. ] | |
[12] | Bhattacherjee A.Understanding information systems continuance: an expectation-confirmation model[J]. MIS Quarterly, 2001, 25(3): 351-370. |
[13] | Limayem M, Cheung C, Chan G.Explaining Information Systems Adoption and Post-Adoption: Toward an Integrative Model [R]. Washington: ICIS 2003 Proceedings, 2003. |
[14] | Bagdi G L, Mishra P K, Kurothe R S, et al. Post-adoption behavior of farmers towards soil and water conservation technologies of watershed management in India[J]. International Soil and Water Conservation Research, 2015, 3(3): 161-169. |
[15] | Spaulding A D, Tudor K W, Mahatanankoon P.The effects of outcome expectations on individual’s anxiety and continued usage of mobile devices: a post-adoption study[J]. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 2015, 18(4): 173-173. |
[16] | 曹光乔, 周力, 易中懿, 等. 农业机械购置补贴对农户购机行为的影响-基于江苏省水稻种植业的实证分析[J]. 中国农村经济, 2010, (6): 38-48. |
[Qiao G Q, Zhou L, Yi Z Y, et al. Influence of the policy of subsidy for purchasing agricultural machinery to peasant household: based on the empirical analysis of rice planting in Jiangsu Province[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2010, (6): 38-48. ] | |
[17] | 李后建. 农户对循环农业技术采纳意愿的影响因素实证分析[J]. 中国农村观察, 2012, (2): 28-36. |
[Li H J.Empirical study on the influence factors of farmers’ adoption willingness of the recycled agricultural technology[J]. China Rural Survey, 2012, (2): 28-36. ] | |
[18] | 黄顺铭, 李妍. 移动阅读的“技术接受模型”(TAM)-一个结构方程模型的分析[J]. 新闻界, 2015, (21): 34-41. |
[Huang S M, Li Y.Technology acceptance model of mobile reading (TAM): based on the structural equation model[J]. Press Circles, 2015, (21): 34-41. ] | |
[19] | 韩青, 谭向勇. 农户灌溉技术选择的影响因素分析[J]. 中国农村经济, 2004, (1): 63-69. |
[Han Q, Tan X Y.Analyzing the influence factors of farmers’ irrigation technology selection[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2004, (1): 63-69. ] | |
[20] | Gintis H.Beyond homo economics: evidence from experimental economics[J]. Ecological Economics, 2000, 35(3): 311-322. |
[21] | 姚柳杨, 赵敏娟, 徐涛. 经济理性还是生态理性?农户耕地保护的行为逻辑研究[J]. 南京农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2016, (5): 86-95. |
[Yao L Y, Zhao M J, Xu T.Economic rationality or ecological literacy? Logic of peasant households' soil conservation practices[J]. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2016, (5): 86-95. ] | |
[22] | 李俊利, 张俊飚. 农户采用节水灌溉技术的影响因素分析-来自河南省的实证调查[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2011, (8): 141-145. |
[Li J L, Zhang J B.Factors influencing farmers adopting the water-saving irrigation technologies: based on the survey data of Henan[J]. Forum on Science and Technology in China, 2011, (8): 141-145. ] | |
[23] | 杨水清, 鲁耀斌, 曹玉枝. 移动支付服务初始采纳模型及其实证研究[J]. 管理学报, 2012, 9(9): 1365-1372. |
[Yang S Q, Lu Y B, Cao Y Z.An empirical study on mobile payment initial adoption[J]. Chinese Journal of Management, 2012, 9(9): 1365-1372. ] | |
[24] | Lu J, Yao J E, Yu C S.Personal innovativeness, social influences and adoption of wireless internet services via mobile technology[J]. The Journal of Strategic Information Systems, 2005, 14(3): 245-268. |
[25] | 杨唯一, 鞠晓峰. 基于博弈模型的农户技术采纳行为分析[J]. 中国软科学, 2014, (11): 42-49. |
[Yang W Y, Ju X F.Analysis of farmers’ technology adoption behavior based on game model[J]. China Soft Science, 2014, (11): 42-49. ] | |
[26] | 褚彩虹, 冯淑怡, 张蔚文. 农户采用环境友好型农业技术行为的实证分析-以有机肥与测土配方施肥技术为例[J]. 中国农村经济, 2012, (3): 68-77. |
[Zhu C H, Feng S Y, Zhang W W.Empirical study on farmers’ adoption of the environment friendly agriculture technology: take the organic fertilizer and soil testing technology as example[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2012, (3): 68-77. ] | |
[27] | 乔丹, 陆迁, 徐涛. 社会网络、推广服务与农户节水灌溉技术采用-以甘肃省民勤县为例[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(3): 441-450. |
[Qiao D, Lu Q, Xu T.Social network, extension service and farmers water-saving irrigation technology adoption in Minqin County[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(3): 441-450. ] | |
[28] | 谢臻, 张凤荣, 王瀚巍, 等. 基于节水灌溉技术的民勤绿洲土地利用空间布局和利用方式调整[J]. 中国农业大学学报, 2017, 22(10): 65-74. |
[Xie Z, Zhang F R, Wang H W, et al. Adjustment of land use spatial structure and use pattern based on modern agriculture in Minqin oasis[J]. Journal of China Agriculture University, 2017, 22(10): 65-74.] | |
[29] | 陈杰, 杨太保, 何毅. 石羊河下游民勤土地利用及景观格局动态分析[J]. 水土保持研究, 2014, 21(6): 251-255. |
[Chen J, Yang T B, He Y.Analysis on dynamic characteristics of landscape patterns in Minqin of Shiyang river downstream[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2014, 21(6): 251-255.] | |
[30] | 于文斌. 民勤县荒漠化草地治理监测与效益评价 [D]. 兰州大学, 2016. |
[Yu W B.Research on Monitoring and Benefit Assessment of Desertification Grassland Restoration in Minqin County [D]. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University, 2016.] | |
[31] | 徐涛, 赵敏娟, 李二辉, 等. 规模化经营与农户“两型技术”持续采纳-以民勤县滴灌技术为例[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2018, (2): 37-43. |
[Xu T, Zhao M J, Li E H, et al. Scaled operation and continuous adoption of “Two-oriented Technology”-the case of drip irrigation in Minqin County[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2018, (2): 37-43. ] | |
[32] | 张淑兰. 民勤县高效节水灌溉探讨[J]. 发展, 2014, (8): 110-110. |
[Zhang S L.Some discussions of the efficient water-saving irrigation in Minqin County[J]. Developing, 2014, (8): 110-110. ] |
[1] | 刘丽, 褚力其, 姜志德. 技术认知、风险感知对黄土高原农户水土保持耕作技术采用意愿的影响及代际差异[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(4): 763-775. |
[2] | 薛彩霞, 黄玉祥, 韩文霆. 政府补贴、采用效果对农户节水灌溉技术持续采用行为的影响研究[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(7): 1418-1428. |
[3] | 贺志武, 胡伦, 陆迁. 农户风险偏好、风险认知对节水灌溉技术采用意愿的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(4): 797-808. |
[4] | 黄腾, 赵佳佳, 魏娟, 刘天军. 节水灌溉技术认知、采用强度与收入效应——基于甘肃省微观农户数据的实证分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(2): 347-358. |
[5] | 胡伦, 陆迁. 干旱风险冲击下节水灌溉技术采用的减贫效应——以甘肃省张掖市为例[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(2): 417-426. |
[6] | 乔丹, 陆迁, 徐涛. 社会网络、推广服务与农户节水灌溉技术采用——以甘肃省民勤县为例[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(3): 441-450. |
[7] | 徐涛, 姚柳杨, 乔丹, 陆迁, 颜俨, 赵敏娟. 节水灌溉技术社会生态效益评估——以石羊河下游民勤县为例[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(10): 1925-1934. |
|