技术认知、补贴政策对农户不同节水技术采用阶段的影响分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.04.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探究农户节水技术采用的阶段性特征,对促进其持续采用具有重要意义。本文以滴灌技术为例,结合民勤县354份农户调研数据,运用结构方程模型分析了技术认知与补贴政策认知对农户采用节水技术的不同阶段的影响。结果表明：从初始采用阶段到后续采用阶段,农户感知技术的易用性有所提升,而感知技术的有用性与感知补贴政策的合理性有所下降;感知有用性对农户采用意愿的影响相对于感知易用性有所增强;补贴政策认知对农户采用意愿的影响有所提升,并成为最主要的影响因素。据此建议：技术宣传、培训与田间示范在技术推广中仍有重要意义;进一步加大研发投入,从而提升农户技术采用的效果与持续性;适当调整补贴标准与方式,提高补贴政策的实施效果。

关键词: 节水灌溉, 滴灌技术, 技术认知, 补贴政策, 初始采用阶段, 后续采用阶段, 民勤县

Abstract:

Agriculture consumes 63.1% of the total water in Chin, but the effective utilization rate of farmland irrigation water in China is only 0.542 and there exists a huge waste of water resources. Accelerating the promotion of water-saving irrigation technology is an important way for China to realize the transformation from water-dependent agriculture to water-saving agriculture. Here we use the example of drip irrigation technology and structural equation modeling to analyze how technology perception and subsidy policy satisfaction impact the initial phase and follow-up phase of farmers’ adoption, based on 354 households’ survey data from Minqin County (among them, 156 households have not used drip irrigation and 198 households have adopted). When they adopt technology from the initial phase to the follow-up phase, farmers' perception of ease to use improves, however, their perceived usefulness and subsidy policy rationality decrease. Compared with the perception of ease to use, the influence of perceived usefulness on farmers’ willingness to adopt increases, and the influence of subsidy policy on farmers’ willingness to adopt is further enhanced. A policy implication is that technology promotion such as advertising activities, training and field demonstration in initial adoption phase are significant in today's technology popularization. More input should be applied into technology research and development to improve the effect and sustainability of technology adopting at the same time. Appropriate adjustment should be given in subsidy standard and manners for improving the implementation effects of subsidy policy, and more attention should be paid to policy requirements of farmers in the follow-up adoption phase, for their opinions on the subsidy standard and means are valuable.

Key words: water-saving irrigation, drip irrigation, technology perception, subsidy policy, initial adoption phase, follow-up adoption phase, Minqin County

徐涛, 赵敏娟, 李二辉, 乔丹. 技术认知、补贴政策对农户不同节水技术采用阶段的影响分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(4): 809-817.

Tao XU, Minjuan ZHAO, Erhui LI, Dan QIAO. The impact of technology perception and subsidy policy on different phases of farmers’ water-saving irrigation technology adoption[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(4): 809-817.

图/表 5

图1

表1

结构方程模型变量及其描述统计"

变量		变量说明	初始采用阶段农户			后续采用阶段农户			样本整体
变量		变量说明	均值		标准差		均值	标准差	均值	标准差
采用意愿（WA）	WA₁	现行补贴政策下,我愿意（继续）使用滴灌技术	2.699	1.133		2.697	1.348		2.698	1.256
	WA₂	若优化补贴政策,我愿意（扩大）使用面积	2.994	1.050		2.874	1.302		2.927	1.197
	WA₃	我会推荐亲朋好友使用滴灌技术	2.481	0.912		2.586	1.158		2.540	1.056
感知易用性（PEU）	PEU₁	滴灌技术易于掌握	3.186	1.058		3.904	1.040		3.588	1.106
	PEU₂	滴灌设备（地膜、毛管等）铺设方便	2.872	1.117		3.717			1.109	3.345	1.188
	PEU₃	滴灌设备（地膜、毛管等）回收容易	2.846	0.978		3.732			1.087	3.342	1.129
感知有用性（PU）	PU₁	滴灌技术的节水效果很好	3.532	0.973		3.116	1.077		3.299	1.051
	PU₂	滴灌技术的使用能节省一部分劳动力	3.340	0.933		3.136			1.116	3.226	1.043
	PU₃	滴灌技术能节省化肥的使用量	3.250	0.855		2.990			1.008	3.105	0.951
补贴政策认知（PSP）	PSP₁	我认为现有补贴标准合理	3.237	0.812	2.949	0.888	3.076	0.866
	PSP₂	我认为现有补贴方式合理	3.160	0.807	3.010		0.923	3.076		0.876
	PSP₃	我认为现有补贴政策整体合理	3.071	0.737	2.899		0.849	2.975		0.805
环境认知（EA）	EA₁	我所在的村子灌溉用水很紧张	3.891	1.081	3.874	1.007	3.881	1.039
	EA₂	我所在村子的地下水位越来越深（机井越打越深）	3.699	1.044	3.687		1.019	3.692		1.029
	EA₃	节水灌溉技术推广有利于民勤生态环境的改善	3.756	1.018	3.732		0.953	3.743		0.981
主观规范（SN）	SN₁	周围的人都愿意使用滴灌技术	2.039	1.071	2.753	1.575	2.438	1.419
	SN₂	周围使用滴灌技术的人很多	1.923	0.905	2.803		1.605	2.415		1.410
	SN₃	政府推广节水灌溉技术的力度很大	2.455	1.068	3.126		1.606	2.831		1.432
个体特征	Education	主要家庭成员的最高受教育年限/年	7.974	2.851	7.929	2.804	7.949	2.821
	Income	年度家庭总收入/万元	3.771	2.837	4.673		5.097	4.276		4.270
	Scale	最大地块的面积/hm²	0.188	0.235	0.368		0.440	0.289		0.375

表1

表2

表3

表4

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变量		初始采用阶段农户			后续采用阶段农户			样本整体
变量		载荷		Cronbach's Alpha		载荷	Cronbach's Alpha	载荷	Cronbach's Alpha
采用意愿（WA）	WA₁	0.810	0.943		0.853	0.966		0.833	0.957
	WA₂	0.733			0.813			0.780
	WA₃	0.725			0.767			0.752
感知易用性（PEU）	PEU₁	0.717	0.907		0.760	0.950		0.874	0.941
	PEU₂	0.765			0.688			0.910
	PEU₃	0.651			0.713			0.902
感知有用性（PU）	PU₁	0.703	0.905		0.821	0.956		0.900	0.939
	PU₂	0.675			0.857			0.886
	PU₃	0.628		0.797	0.867
补贴政策认知（PSP）	PSP₁	0.847	0.908	0.888	0.937	0.877		0.927
	PSP₂	0.792		0.867		0.842
	PSP₃	0.796		0.860		0.853
环境认知（EA）	EA₁	0.913	0.927	0.829	0.876	0.872		0.901
	EA₂	0.828		0.802		0.806
	EA₃	0.836		0.744		0.810
主观规范（SN）	SN₁	0.912	0.927	0.921	0.945	0.929		0.945
	SN₂	0.848		0.899		0.898
	SN₃	0.825		0.838		0.845
问卷整体Cronbach's Alpha		0.867		0.885		0.878

拟合指数		建议值	初始采用模型	后续采用模型	样本整体模型
绝对拟合指数	χ²/df	<3.00	1.623	2.234	2.967
	RMSEA	≤0.05良好,≤0.08合理	0.063	0.079	0.075
	GFI	≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受	0.841	0.875	0.884
	AGFI	≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受	0.797	0.825	0.838
相对拟合指数	NFI	≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受	0.897	0.922	0.933
	IFI	≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受	0.958	0.955	0.954
	TLI	≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受	0.951	0.942	0.942
	CFI	≥0.9优,≥0.8尚可接受	0.957	0.955	0.954

路径	初始采用模型			后续采用模型			样本整体模型
路径	未标准化系数		标准化系数		未标准化系数	标准化系数	未标准化系数	标准化系数
WA←PEU	0.234***	0.246		0.193***	0.172		0.149***	0.153
WA←PU	0.294***	0.248		0.217***	0.199		0.292***	0.297
WA←PSP	0.433***	0.330		0.394***	0.274		0.440***	0.324
WA←EA	0.215***	0.266		0.229***	0.190		0.219***	0.218
WA←SN	0.284***	0.350		0.179***	0.252		0.187***	0.271
WA←Edu	0.032*	0.105		0.081***	0.205		0.061***	0.172
WA←Income	0.048**	0.158		0.019*	0.091		0.027***	0.115
WA←Scale	0.038**	0.157		0.018***	0.105		0.017**	0.096