资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 773-783.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.04.11

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中亚主要能源出口国地缘政治风险的度量与评价

陈晓鹏1,2(), 成升魁1(), 吴良1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2017-11-20 修回日期:2018-03-13 出版日期:2018-05-02 发布日期:2018-05-02
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:陈晓鹏,男,江苏无锡人,博士生,主要研究领域为地缘政治和大国关系。E-mail: cxpwsc31@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-1-4)

Quantitative measurement and evaluation of geopolitical risks confronting Central Asian major energy exporting countries

Xiaopeng CHEN1,2(), Shengkui CHENG1(), Liang WU1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Researches, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2017-11-20 Revised:2018-03-13 Online:2018-05-02 Published:2018-05-02

摘要:

中亚地处欧亚大陆中心位置,油气资源丰富,但同时也面临着来自油气管道沿线国家的地缘政治压力。为了保障能源出口安全,中亚主要能源出口国哈萨克斯坦和土库曼斯坦实行了一套能源(包括石油与天然气)出口多样化战略。本文从相关性、多样性和国际关系影响这三个角度,利用2005—2013年的联合国COMTRADE数据库的能源贸易数据,测试了这套战略对地缘政治压力的缓解和规避作用。研究结果显示:①哈萨克斯坦与土库曼斯坦的石油市场多样化程度较高且市场之间相关程度较低,而出口国、过境国和进口国之间的关系对石油出口的影响较小;②天然气市场因为多样性不足且相关程度较高,导致国际关系能够对天然气出口造成较大的影响;③中亚能源出口国为了应付地缘政治风险,采用了截然不同的方法。哈萨克斯坦采用了典型的市场多样化战略,而土库曼斯坦采用了逆多样化战略来减小其风险敞口。

关键词: 能源出口国, 地缘政治风险, 相关性, 多样化, 国际关系, 中亚, 哈萨克斯坦, 土库曼斯坦

Abstract:

Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the two major energy exporting countries in Central Asia, are rich in oil and gas and located in the heartland of the Eurasian Continent. Their geographic location puts their energy exports under tremendous geopolitical pressure from countries along their limited exporting pipelines. In order to safeguard their energy security, they have developed an export diversification strategy to overcome this pressure. Using energy trade data from the United Nations Comtrade Database from 2005 to 2013, we tested the effect of this strategy using three standards: correlation, diversification, and the impact of bilateral relationship. We found that Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan’s oil markets are balanced in terms of correlation and diversification, and thus less subject to geopolitical pressure. Their gas markets, on the other hand, still have tremendous exposure to geopolitical risks for high correlation and lack of diversification. Kazakhstan’s oil and gas markets are more diversified and less correlated than Turkmenistan’s. In terms of overall effect, Kazakhstan usesa typical diversification strategy to reduce geopolitical risks while Turkmenistan adopts a reverse diversification strategy which was more effective during the sample time. In conclusion, the diversification of export routes and markets is essentially a political adjustment to their geopolitical environment made by energy exporting countries in Central Asia instead of economic rationale. Several policy proposals to help these two countries lower their export risk under the framework of the Silk Road Economic Belt are discussed.

Key words: energy exporter, geoplitical risk, correlation, diversification, international relations, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan