环境不确定性、外部融资与可再生能源投资——兼论政策有效性

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.04.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于外部融资视角,分析环境不确定性影响可再生能源投资的作用效果对于促进可再生能源投资发展以及明确政策着力点具有重要意义。以2010—2016年141家可再生能源企业的季度面板数据,构建固定效应变截距模型,测算了环境不确定性通过外部融资水平对可再生能源投资的影响,并进一步利用断点回归估计考察了可再生能源政策的作用效果。结果表明：① 环境不确定性显著抑制可再生能源投资,样本区间内的作用系数为 -1.3042,且抑制作用在外部融资水平较低的企业中更强烈;② 不同的外部融资水平下,促进可再生能源投资的主要融资渠道并不相同,外部融资水平较低的企业主要依赖间接融资渠道,作用系数为0.8607,外部融资水平较高的企业主要依赖直接融资渠道,作用系数为2.8699;进一步地,间接融资水平的提高可以缓解环境不确定性对可再生能源投资的抑制作用,直接融资水平的作用系数未通过显著性检验;③ 样本期间内相关可再生能源政策对可再生能源投资起到显著的促进作用,这体现了中国可再生能源政策体系实施的有效性,但实践中应注意政策间的协调与配合。

关键词: 环境不确定性, 可再生能源投资, 外部融资, 直接融资, 间接融资, 政策有效性

Abstract:

Based on quarterly panel data for 141 renewable energy companies from 2010 to 2016, we used a variable intercept model with fixed effects to measure how environmental uncertainty influences renewable energy investment through external financing and regression discontinuity to estimate the effect of renewable energy policy. We found that environmental uncertainty inhibits renewable energy investment, the effect coefficient is -1.3042 in the sample interval. The inhibition effect is stronger in the enterprises of lower-level external financing. Under different external financing levels, the main finance channels to promote renewable energy investment are not the same. The enterprises of low-level external financing mainly rely on indirect financing channels and the coefficient of action is 0.8607. The enterprises of high-level external financing enterprises mainly rely on direct financing channels, with a coefficient of 2.8699. Improving the level of indirect financing can alleviate the inhibition effect of environmental uncertainty on renewable energy investment, however, the alleviating effect of the direct financing channel is not significant. During the sample period, relevant policies for renewable energy play a significant role in promoting renewable energy investment, but government should pay attention to the coordination and cooperation of policies in practice. In addition, considering the policy effect, the effect coefficient of environmental uncertainty influencing renewable energy investment is 9.4504, which means that with the guiding and promoting effect of policies, while facing environmental uncertainty enterprises can still expand renewable energy investment, reflecting the effectiveness of renewable energy policy implementation in China.

Key words: environmental uncertainty, renewable energy investment, external financing, direct financing, indirect financing, policy effectiveness

何凌云, 张丽虹, 钟章奇, 祝婧然. 环境不确定性、外部融资与可再生能源投资——兼论政策有效性[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(4): 748-758.

Lingyun HE, Lihong ZHANG, Zhangqi ZHONG, Jingran ZHU. The effect of environmental uncertainty, external financing and policy on renewable energy investment[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(4): 748-758.

图/表 8

图1

表1

表2

环境不确定性对可再生能源投资直接作用的估计结果"

系数	全样本企业	外部融资水平较低的企业	外部融资水平较高的企业
$β it$	-6.305 9*** （-12.098 1）	-5.262 8*** （-5.808 2）	-6.553 0*** （-11.677 6）
$β 1$	-1.304 2 *** （-8.142 6）	-1.566 6*** （-6.242 9）	-1.288 8*** （-6.747 4）
$β 2$	1.132 1*** （51.526 6）	1.103 3*** （29.137 6）	1.136 8*** （47.511 8）
$β 3$	-0.051 1*** （-12.972 3）	-0.077 5*** （-12.374 1）	-0.028 1*** （-6.030 6）
$β 4$	-0.022 1 （-0.993 5）	-0.005 0 （-0.127 3）	-0.046 0** （-1.992 0）
$β 5$	1.117 0* （1.846 3）	0.796 3 （0.804 2）	0.935 0 （1.290 9）
$R 2$	0.582 1	0.510 6	0.427 4

表2

表3

外部融资渠道对环境不确定性影响可再生能源投资的调节作用的估计结果"

系数	全样本企业	外部融资水平较低的企业	外部融资水平较高的企业
$δ it$	-5.111 2*** （-9.340 9）	-4.585 9*** （-4.925 6）	-5.009 4** （-8.373 9）
$δ 1$	-1.629 8*** （-6.869 7）	-0.037 1 （-0.063 0）	-2.020 0*** （-8.723 5）
$δ 2$	0.556 3** （2.203 3）	-0.270 8 （-0.697 3）	0.860 7*** (2.894 8)
$δ 3$	0.256 9 （0.9599）	2.869 9*** （4.733 9）	-0.642 0** (-2.3418)
$δ 4$	-0.598 4 （-0.900 5）	1.422 4 （1.402 5）	-1.181 0 (-1.496 5)
$δ 5$	1.891 4*** （2.592 6）	-4.327 2*** (-2.597 7)	4.514 6 *** (5.960 0)
$R 2$	0.596 4	0.526 4	0.722 9

表3

表4

表5

相关政策影响可再生能源投资的估计结果"

系数	政策1	政策2	政策3	政策4	政策的综合作用
$θ 11$	1.658 0*** (11.508 6)				1.751 1*** (9.967 2)
$θ 12$		0.687 5*** (5.766 2)			-0.306 0** (-2.000 1)
$θ 13$			0.749 1*** (5.250 2)		0.866 1*** (3.708 9)
$θ 14$				0.453 3*** (2.740 4)	-0.547 0** (-2.107 2)

表5

表6

TSLS第一阶段估计结果"

系数	政策1	政策2	政策3	政策4	政策的综合作用
$γ 11$	0.016 3*** (2.694 2)				0.021 4*** (2.887 0)
$γ 12$		0.002 8 (0.568 6)			-0.004 4 (-0.688 5)
$γ 13$			-0.005 4 (-0.915 1)		-0.001 5 (-0.151 3)
$γ 14$				-0.008 8 (-1.293 4)	-0.009 9 (-0.904 6)

表6

表7

TSLS第二阶段估计结果"

系数	回归系数	标准差	t值	p值
$? 1$	9.450 4	4.517 3	2.092 0	0.036 5
$? 2$	0.685 9	0.087 6	7.825 0	0.000 0
$? 3$	-0.080 0	0.012 9	-6.206 3	0.000 0
$? 4$	-0.284 1	0.046 1	-6.162 6	0.000 0
$? 5$	-2.605 1	1.274 5	-2.043 9	0.041 0

表7

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检验方法	可再生能源投资与环境不确定性			可再生能源投资与环境不确定性及其他控制变量
检验方法	统计值		P值	统计值	P值
Panel PP	-41.422 6	0.000 0		-42.604 6	0.000 0
Panel ADF	-53.465 0	0.000 0		-46.847 9	0.000 0
Group PP	-35.764 8	0.000 0		-35.245 4	0.000 0
Group ADF	-49.137 4	0.000 0		-30.171 2	0.000 0

变量	待估区间	系数	T值	断点位置
EU	2010Q1—2011Q2	0.0077***	4.9889	无
	2011Q3—2012Q4	0.0542***	16.2695	2011Q3
	2013Q1—2015Q4	0.0228***	3.1414	2013Q1
	2016Q1—2016Q4	0.1118***	7.7208	2016Q1
INV	2010Q1—2010Q4	12.7267**	2.3585	无
	2011Q1—2012Q4	18.5203***	70.8920	2011Q3
	2013Q1—2015Q2	20.5162***	42.5979	2013Q1
	2015Q3—2016Q4	21.7192***	84.0262	2015Q3