中国闲置耕地的区域分布及影响因素研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.04.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

耕地闲置已经成为中国的普遍现象,这与中国政府耕地集约利用的主张相违背,也直接影响到农业产量。本文利用中国家庭收入调查（CHIP）数据分析了2002—2013年中国闲置耕地的时空变化特征,采用Tobit模型探讨了影响耕地闲置的主要因素。结果表明：①2002—2013年间,中国闲置耕地比例从0.32%上升到5.72%,可能无法避免“森林转型”引致的耕地在空间上收缩现象,从区域上看,东中西部闲置耕地占耕地总面积的比例分别为0.81%、6.91%与7.65%;②全国层面上,户主的健康状况、家庭耕地总面积、家庭农业收入成为农户耕地闲置与否的最关键因素。户主健康恶化与较多的耕地面积均会促使农户闲置耕地,而家庭农业总收入的增加能起到促进农户充分利用耕地的作用;③平原地区的土地流转能有效利用耕地资源,防止土地闲置,而在山区土地流转对耕地闲置的影响不明显。建议积极建立基层的土地流转中介平台,以推动平原地区的土地流转与全国层面的农业规模经营。

关键词: 闲置耕地, 区域分布, 影响因素, 土地流转, 中国家庭收入调查（CHIP）

Abstract:

Faced with a crisis of growing food demand, the Chinese government has taken drastic steps to safeguard the nation’s farmland and promote intensive land-use. However, China's rapid urbanization and high economic growth have caused significant negative effects on agricultural production. Farmland abandonment has become a general phenomenon in China directly impacting total agricultural production. Here, we analyzed spatial and temporal variation of farmland abandonment in China from 2002 to 2013 with data from the Chinese Household Income Survey (CHIP). Logit modeling was used to capture the main factors that led to this phenomenon. We found that during this period, the ratio of farmland abandonment rises from 0.32%~5.72% in China. Farmland shrinkage caused by “Forest transition” is unavoidable in China. At a regional level, farmland abandonment rates in middle, eastern and western China are 0.81%, 6.91% and 7.65% respectively. The health condition of the householder, total farmland area of the household and agricultural income of the household are the most crucial impact factors determining farmland abandonment. Bad health and large farmland area will induce farmers to idle their farmland and increasing agricultural income will prompt them to take full advantage of farmland. The farmland transfer in plain areas is effective for facilitating farmland use and preventing farmland abandonment, but is not significant in mountain areas. The policy implication here is establishing an intermediary platform for farmland transfer at the grass-roots level to impel farmland transfer in plain areas and agricultural scale management at a national level.

Key words: farmland abandonment, spatial distribution, impact factors, farmland transfer, CHIP

金芳芳, 辛良杰. 中国闲置耕地的区域分布及影响因素研究[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(4): 719-728.

Fangfang JIN, Liangjie XIN. Spatial distribution and impact factors of farmland abandonment[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(4): 719-728.

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	省份	调查县数	调查户数
东部	北京	5	149
	辽宁	16	465
	江苏	18	541
	山东	18	875
	广东	14	597
中部	山西	10	457
	安徽	17	673
	河南	22	917
	湖北	15	646
	湖南	16	765
西部	重庆	8	424
	四川	15	714
	甘肃	11	615
	云南	11	642
总计		196	8 480

变量	类别	数量	百分比/%	变量	类别	数量	百分比/%
闲置比例	0	7 169户	84.5	家庭人口/人	0~3	3 736人	44.1
	0~0.5	774户	9.2		3~6	3 652人	43.1
	0.5~0.9	214户	2.5		≥6	1 092人	12.8
	1.0	323户	3.8	耕地面积/亩	0~5	5 203户	61.4
户主年龄/岁	≤30	213人	2.5	耕地面积/亩	6~10	1 626户	19.2
	31~40	1 049人	12.4	11~20		908户	10.7
	41~50	2 987人	35.2	21~30		258户	3.0
	51~60	2 345人	27.7	≥30		487户	5.7
	≥61	1 886人	22.2	家庭收入/万元	0~1	731户	8.6
养老保险	有	7 441人	87.7		1~3	3 101户	36.6
养老保险	无	1 039人	12.3		3~6		3 111户	36.7
户主性别	男	7 861人	92.7	6~10	1 180户	13.9
户主性别	女	619人	7.3	≥10		357户	4.2
学历	文盲	562人	6.6	工资收入/万元*	0~1	4 713户	55.6
	小学	2 849人	33.6		1~3	2 533户	29.8
	初中	4 094人	48.3		3~6	1 108户	13.1
	高中	915人	10.8		6~10	103户	1.2
	大学以上	60人	0.7		≥10	23户	0.3
村干部	否	8 039人	94.8	农业收入/万元*	0~1	7 423户	87.5
村干部	是	441人	5.2		1~3	766户	9.1
身体状况	很健康	2 078人	24.5		3~6	156户	1.8
	健康	3 547人	41.8	6~10		78户	0.9
	一般	2 030人	23.9	≥10		57户	0.7
	不健康	691人	8.2	家庭消费/万元	0~1	80户	0.9
	很不健康	134人	1.6		1~3	4 859户	57.3
工作地点*	家里	5 142人	60.6		3~6	1 644户	19.4
	乡外镇内	1 308人	15.5	6~10		254户	3.0
	镇外县内	730人	8.6	≥10		1 643户	19.4
	县外市内	389人	4.6	耕地流转/亩*	0~5	7 901户	93.2
	市外省内	306人	3.6		6~10	313户	3.7
	省外	576人	6.8		11~20	145户	1.7
	其他	29人	0.3		21~30	41户	0.5
					≥30	80户	0.9

区域	省市	闲置面积比例RL/%			闲置农户比例RH/%
区域	省市	2002		2013	2002	2013
东部	辽宁	0.01	0.62		0.46	2.09
	北京	0.47	4.24		1.39	8.94
	山东	0.22	0.43		2.19	2.02
	江苏	0.09	1.23		0.71	4.35
	广东	0.21	14.15		2.51	32.19
中部	山西	0.00	18.76		0.00	24.09
	河南	0.33	1.20		0.44		1.48
	安徽	0.15	3.91	2.31		20.35
	湖北	0.09	4.60	0.58		18.13
	湖南	0.26	6.10	1.34		19.27
西部	云南	1.73	4.29	8.59	12.44
	甘肃	0.24	6.45	0.98		14.53
	重庆	0.49	24.08	4.08		37.41
	四川	0.14	7.54	1.24		22.50
平均		0.32	5.72	1.64		15.50

变量类别	变量	全国	平原	山区	东部	中部	西部
关键变量	工资收入（ln）	0.012**	-0.003	0.035***	0.002	0.017**	0.008
	农业收入（ln）	-0.053***	-0.070***	-0.030***	-0.068***	-0.053***	-0.044***
	工作地点	0.030**	0.031*	0.010	0.061	0.016	0.040*
	耕地流转	-0.027***	-0.046***	-0.004	-0.029	-0.038***	-0.006
控制变量	户主性别	-0.065	0.020	-0.177*	-0.370*	0.106	-0.040
	户主年龄	0.002	-0.002	0.006*	0.003	-0.001	0.006*
	是否村干部	0.001	-0.058	0.095	-0.051	-0.064	0.083
	户主学历	-0.010	0.019	-0.092***	0.081	-0.092***	0.027
	户主健康状况	0.076***	0.088***	0.042	0.072	0.081***	0.067**
	养老保险	-0.006	0.068	-0.075	0.109	0.020	-0.052
	家庭收入（ln）	-0.018	0.030	-0.071	-0.060	-0.081*	0.160**
	家庭消费（ln）	0.024	-0.037	0.127**	0.311**	0.073	-0.200***
	家庭人口	0.013	-0.003	0.033	-0.011	-0.005	0.031
	耕地面积	0.007**	0.010**	0.006*	-0.049**	0.007*	0.010***
	常数	-1.268***	-0.710	-1.883***	-3.276***	-0.574	-1.230
	区域变量	有	有	有	有	有	有
统计与显著性	Number of obs	8 480	6 096	2 384	2 627	3 458	2 395
	LR chi2	1 051.11	915.15	258.31	449.35	349.50	207.96
	Prob> chi2	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	Pseudo R2	0.123 2	0.155 3	0.099 1	0.214 4	0.102 1	0.072 5