资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 526-534.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.03.07
收稿日期:
2017-08-13
修回日期:
2018-02-07
出版日期:
2018-03-10
发布日期:
2018-03-10
作者简介:
作者简介:杨建锋,男,河北宁晋人,研究员,从事资源环境经济研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Jianfeng YANG(), Teng MA, Yao WANG, Cuiguang ZHANG
Received:
2017-08-13
Revised:
2018-02-07
Online:
2018-03-10
Published:
2018-03-10
摘要:
定量描述铜矿勘查经济过程并预测其走向,是实现铜矿勘查形势中长期预测、制定铜矿勘查发展战略的重要基础。基于经济发展对铜矿勘查影响传导链,通过文献综述与数据分析,从经济发展对铜消费需求影响、铜供需对其价格影响、铜价格对铜矿开发影响、铜矿开发对铜矿勘查影响等4个环节,分析了经济因素变化对铜矿勘查的驱动机制。分析表明,铜消费与工业化水平紧密相关,世界工业产业迁移以及产业结构变化将对中国铜消费产生深远的影响;中长期铜金属价格随供需变化呈现交替上升与下行的周期性变化,下一轮铜价格上升波次来临取决于接替中国启动工业化的国家;矿产铜生产通常滞后于铜需求和价格变化,铜矿勘查的经济收益受制于铜矿的开发利用;铜矿企业根据全球工业产业格局与铜价格中长期变化制定相应的勘查开采计划,是平稳度过矿业下行期的重要基础。铜矿勘查是一项高风险市场行为,政策稳定、市场透明、可以预期的友好投资环境,对于铜矿勘查企业生存发展至关重要。
杨建锋, 马腾, 王尧, 张翠光. 社会经济发展对铜矿资源勘查驱动传导机制分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(3): 526-534.
Jianfeng YANG, Teng MA, Yao WANG, Cuiguang ZHANG. Socio-economic mechanisms driving copper exploration[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(3): 526-534.
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