资源科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 507-515.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.03.05

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中国铁矿石资源供应风险评价与治理研究

范松梅1(), 沙景华1(), 闫晶晶1, 刘全文1, 周平2   

  1. 1. 中国地质大学(北京)人文经管学院,北京 100083
    2. 中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京 100037
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-12 修回日期:2018-02-05 出版日期:2018-03-10 发布日期:2018-03-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:范松梅,女,江苏南通人,博士生,主要从事资源经济的研究工作。E-mail:fansongmei@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    中国地质调查局发展研究中心项目( 1212011220306);中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20160087);中央高校基本科研基金项目(292016078)

Risk assessment and management of iron ore resource supply in China

Songmei FAN1(), Jinghua SHA1(), Jingjing YAN1, Quanwen LIU1, Ping ZHOU2   

  1. 1. School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
    2. Development Research Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, China
  • Received:2017-08-12 Revised:2018-02-05 Online:2018-03-10 Published:2018-03-10

摘要:

由于中国国内铁矿资源禀赋的约束,中国高度依赖进口铁矿的局面将长期存在。为了保证中国铁矿资源的供应安全,已有研究重点从中国铁矿石资源供需、贸易或定价的某一维度深入分析铁矿石资源供应风险,较少同时考虑供需、贸易和定价的综合性供应风险,相应地缺乏多维主体的铁矿石供应风险综合治理措施。本研究采用BGR-VW方法,基于2000—2015年中国铁矿石时间序列数据,从当前市场风险、资源风险、政治风险、市场权力、未来供需趋势等5个方面对中国铁矿石供应资源供应风险进行了综合评价。结果表明,中国铁矿石资源供应风险主要存在于资源和政治风险,综合风险等级处于紧张状态。最后,本文以实现铁矿石资源可持续供给为最终目标,从全球层面、区域层面和国家层面的多维主体分别提出相应治理措施。

关键词: 中国铁矿石, 供应风险, 风险评价, 风险治理

Abstract:

Because of endowment constraints in China’s domestic iron ore resources, China is highly dependent on iron ore imports. This situation will continue for a long time. In order to secure the supply of iron ore resources in China, research has emphasised Chinese iron ore resource supply and demand, international trade or pricing mechanism and their influence, and analysed iron ore resource supply risk. However, comprehensive analysis of supply and demand, trade and the pricing mechanism at the same time is uncommon, and this has resulted in a lack of multi-dimensional measures for the integrated management of iron ore supply risk in China. Here, we applied the BGR-VW method and the latest data set for China’s iron ore resources from 2000 to 2015, to comprehensively evaluate iron ore resource supply risk from five aspects: the current market risk, resource risk, political risk, market power and the future trend of supply and demand. We found that China’s iron ore resource supply risk mainly exists in resource risk and political risk, and the comprehensive level of risk is in a state of tension. We discuss comprehensive management measures for iron ore resource supply risk considering multidimensional bodies including the global level, regional level and national level, and from each dimension propose reasonable suggestions respectively in order to realize the sustainable supply of iron ore resources in China.

Key words: iron ore resources, supply risk, risk assessment, risk governance