中国铝土矿贸易与供应安全研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.03.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

铝工业是国民经济发展的重要支柱。铝土矿作为铝产业链的源头,是铝工业可持续发展的资源保障。因此,全面了解铝土矿的进口市场有助于充分把握市场形势并做出相应的判断。本研究基于中国1992—2015年铝土矿的进出口数据,从对外依存度和市场集中度两个方面,构建了铝土矿进口资源安全程度评价矩阵,以评价中国铝土矿的资源供应安全程度。结果表明：①1992—2015年,中国铝土矿的净进口重量和价值量逐年增长,特别是2004年以来,净进口重量和价值量增长显著;②1992—2007年,中国铝土矿的对外依存度逐渐上升,2007年之后相对平稳;③2007年之后中国铝土矿进口市场的集中度相对2007年之前较低;④近年来,中国铝土矿向供应相对安全的方向发展。建议：今后进一步积极开拓海外铝土矿资源;进一步均衡从各国进口铝土矿的比例。本研究所采用的分析方法以及所构建的资源安全评价矩阵同样适用于对其他材料的研究。

关键词: 中国铝土矿贸易, 矿产资源供应安全, 对外依存度, 市场集中度, 资源安全程度评价矩阵

Abstract:

The aluminum industry is important to national economy development in China. Bauxite is the source of the aluminum industrial chain and its supply security directly affects the sustainable development of this industry. With China’s rapid industrialization and urbanization, the demand for bauxite has skyrocketed. Understanding the global trade in bauxite can help China recognize the market situation and make relevant judgments. This study described the recent import and export status of bauxite in China from 1992 to 2015, and calculated the net import reliance of China’s bauxite based on data from UN Comtrade. We analyzed the import market structure of bauxite imported into China using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI). Last we combined the net import reliance and market concentration to build a resource supply security matrix to assess the supply security situation in China. We found that the total net import and export of bauxite measured by weight and monetary value increased from 1992 to 2015, and that growth was remarkable from 2004. The net import reliance of China’s bauxite increased from 1992 to 2007, and then began to stabilize. Since 2007, China’s import market concentration has shown a decreased trend, demonstrating that the security of China’s bauxite supply has improved in recent years. These findings indicate that China should expand the overseas resource market, strengthen its cooperation with other countries to reduce the risk of possible bauxite shortages, and balance the market share among importing countries of bauxite. This framework is designed not only for bauxite, but also for other kinds of materials important to China.

Key words: international trade of bauxite, mineral resource security, net import reliance, market concentration, resource supply security matrix

王东方, 陈伟强. 中国铝土矿贸易与供应安全研究[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(3): 498-506.

Dongfang WANG, Weiqiang CHEN. Trade and supply security of bauxite in China[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(3): 498-506.

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年份	排位一	排位二	排位三	前三位国家的进口额占进口总额的比重/%
1992	澳大利亚	日本	俄罗斯	99.7
1993	印度尼西亚	澳大利亚	俄罗斯	78.6
1994	澳大利亚	印度尼西亚	新西兰	97.6
1995	澳大利亚	印度尼西亚	朝鲜	98.7
1996	印度尼西亚	澳大利亚	朝鲜	98.9
1997	印度尼西亚	日本	西班牙	97.1
1998	印度尼西亚	美国	印度	87.7
1999	印度尼西亚	印度	俄罗斯	89.4
2000	印度尼西亚	美国	印度	93.1
2001	印度尼西亚	日本	美国	98.5
2002	印度尼西亚	美国	日本	98.9
2003	印度尼西亚	日本	美国	99.4
2004	印度尼西亚	澳大利亚	日本	99.7
2005	印度尼西亚	澳大利亚	日本	97.6
2006	印度尼西亚	印度	澳大利亚	97.4
2007	印度尼西亚	印度	澳大利亚	98.2
2008	印度尼西亚	澳大利亚	印度	99.2
2009	印度尼西亚	澳大利亚	印度	99.3
2010	印度尼西亚	澳大利亚	印度	99.8
2011	印度尼西亚	澳大利亚	印度	99.8
2012	印度尼西亚	澳大利亚	印度	96.9
2013	印度尼西亚	澳大利亚	印度	93.9
2014	澳大利亚	印度尼西亚	印度	79.3
2015	马来西亚	澳大利亚	印度	90.0